San Diego +195: Even if Johnson was healthy, I would have SD as a play. But the Unit has rushed his comeback and will not be sharp tomorrow. He got rocked in his last minor league rehab assignment on Tuesday and was anything but dominant in the other ones. His knee is still a mess, and the arm strength, mechanics and location of pitches will all be affected by Johnson's 9 week layoff. The next few games will be his spring training; will be playing against Johnson until he shows me he's ready.
SD/Arizona over 7.5 +101: Jarvis defines the word mediocrity; both teams should score some in this game.
SD -1.5 +365
KC +145: Hernandez is one of the better pitchers in the league, and was sharp last week against Texas after being on the DL with elbow problems. Moyer can drive KC nuts, but the Royals are playing pretty solid baseball and their bullpen is rested. I make the line about +135 which usually isn't a good enough ROI, but going with my gut on this one.
KC/Seattle under 9.5: Two solid pitchers...may parlay KC/under tomorrow.
Tampa -102: Sometimes pitchers aren't as bad as their numbers. Mounce isn't one of these. Sosa might be; he at least has a live arm.
Tampa/Texas over 10 -111. Should be a long game.
Cubs +175: Value play...Willis is good, but he's getting by with some luck. In the last month 88% of baserunners against Willis have been left on base; this tells me he's not pitching as well as his ERA says he is. Most pitchers (even the great ones) allow about 70 to 80% of their baserunners to score; the 88% rate tells me Dontrelle will be coming back to earth pretty soon. Zambrano has thrown a lot of innings this year and will likely wear down, but this is a good spot for him. Lowell being out certainly helps.
SD/Arizona over 7.5 +101: Jarvis defines the word mediocrity; both teams should score some in this game.
SD -1.5 +365
KC +145: Hernandez is one of the better pitchers in the league, and was sharp last week against Texas after being on the DL with elbow problems. Moyer can drive KC nuts, but the Royals are playing pretty solid baseball and their bullpen is rested. I make the line about +135 which usually isn't a good enough ROI, but going with my gut on this one.
KC/Seattle under 9.5: Two solid pitchers...may parlay KC/under tomorrow.
Tampa -102: Sometimes pitchers aren't as bad as their numbers. Mounce isn't one of these. Sosa might be; he at least has a live arm.
Tampa/Texas over 10 -111. Should be a long game.
Cubs +175: Value play...Willis is good, but he's getting by with some luck. In the last month 88% of baserunners against Willis have been left on base; this tells me he's not pitching as well as his ERA says he is. Most pitchers (even the great ones) allow about 70 to 80% of their baserunners to score; the 88% rate tells me Dontrelle will be coming back to earth pretty soon. Zambrano has thrown a lot of innings this year and will likely wear down, but this is a good spot for him. Lowell being out certainly helps.
