Hey all... a huge card tonight of many great games... in fact, one of the best we've seen in awhile... wish we had time for writeups on all of them... anyway, enjoy and best of luck!!
Buzz Word Sports
August 1st MLB:
NY Yankees @ Oakland 10:05 PM EST
Oakland -115 over NY Yankees (5 Units)
It doesn't get much more impressive than the current run that Tim Hudson is on, as he has allowed more than one run just ONCE in his last seven starts, compiling a 1.17 ERA in those contests... and while facing the Yankees might be considered to be a heavy duty challenge for most pitchers, Hudson has thrived against the Bronx Bombers throughout his career... in fact, in his last six starts against Derek Jeter and company, Hudson has gone at least seven innings on every occasion without allowing more than two runs a single time... and when a pitcher has a 1.31 ERA against his opponent in his last six starts, is at home, and is barely favored, it's a pretty obvious sign that we have value with that pitcher...
Mike Mussina takes the mound for the Yankees, and while he is also a terrific pitcher in his own right, he has struggled in his last three road starts, allowing 4+ runs on each occasion, and a total of 13 runs in his last 17 innings (as well as 21 runs in his last 29.2 innings on the road)... throw on Mussina's porous track record against Oakland, and you have the making of serious trouble for the Yankees... Mussina has allowed at least four runs in each of his last three starts against the A's, and a grand total of 14 runs in his last 18.2 innings against Miguel Tejada and company... with the Yankees just 1-4 in Mussina's last five road starts overall, and Mussina's teams just 1-5 in his starts in Oakland, backing New York in this situation is not the best way to ensure profitability...
The additions of Jose Guillen and Erubiel Durazo to the Athletics won't help Mussina improve his performance against Oakland, as the pair of ex-NL players are a combined 6 for 14 against Mussina, bringing Oakland's overall team batting average against the former Oriole to a whopping .320 (with 9 HRs and 30 RBIs) in 172 at-bats... while Jose Guillen, Terrence Long and Miguel Tejada are all batting .364 or better in their careers against Mussina, Alfonso Soriano (2 for 21), Bernie Williams (2 for 17), Derek Jeter (4 for 16) and Nick Johnson (1 for 7) are batting a combined .148 against Tim Hudson, while the entire Yankees squad has just eight RBIs in 124 at-bats against the Oakland stud...
If you're worried about Mike Mussina somehow pulling a shutout performance and taking down Hudson and the A's, you can rest comfortably in the fact that Oakland has now scored at least two runs in each of their last 14 games against the Yankees... remember, Hudson hasn't allowed more than two runs in each of his last six starts against New York, so that is an essential piece of knowledge... toss in the fact that Oakland has now taken four of the last five meetings between these two, and we've got a contest that we give our highest value rating... hammer the Athletics as they take the opening game of this set...
FINAL PREDICTION: OAKLAND 5, NY YANKEES 2
San Diego @ Philadelphia 7:05 PM EST
San Diego +180 over Philadelphia (4 Units)
Lost in all the excitement of the trade deadline acquisitions of Jeff Suppan and Sidney Ponson is the fact that one of the best bargains available ended up staying put in San Diego... The Padres had been looking to move Kevin Jarvis to a contending squad, and judging by his recent performances, a team like the Phillies will likely be cursing themselves for passing up his services... after all, when your team is as bad as the Padres, and they have won each of your last five starts, you've got to be doing something right... in the case of Jarvis, he has now gone four straight starts without allowing more than two runs, giving up a total of just seven runs in his last 28.1 innings (for a 2.22 ERA)...
The Phils should have already been aware of Jarvis from his last five starts against them, as Philadelphia is 0-5 in games started by Jarvis against them, despite tenures with three different teams... in each of those five contests, Philadelphia was unable to score more than three runs in a single game, getting outscored by a final margin of 29 to 9 against the Reds, Rockies and Padres... Jarvis' tour of duty with San Diego has included two starts against the Phillies in which he gave up just two runs in 15.2 innings... and with Kevin Millwood in the midst of what appears to be a slump (allowing 11 runs and a whopping 20 baserunners in his last seven innings), Jarvis and the Pads appear to be a very strong play as an underdog this evening...
One of the frustrating aspects about the Phillies this year has been their level of streakiness and their constant refusal to take care of business against the lesser teams... Philadelphia has swept six series thus far this season, including their three game sweep of the Dodgers heading into this contest... and in their five previous follow-up contests, the Phils have registered a victory just once, displaying a team that seems to get a little overconfident after dominating their previous opponent... toss in the fact that Philly has lost their last four games against teams with losing records, and are 0-3 as a favorite of -160 or more (as well as 1-4 as a home favorite of the same spread), and Philadelphia seems to be a squad that is only geared towards success when the expectations are more tempered...
That certainly is not the case in this contest, although past experience should teach us that the Padres are a serious threat to the Phils... in fact, the Pads have won three of their last four games at Veterans Stadium, scoring at least five runs in each of those contests... and in their last twenty games against the Phils, San Diego is averaging a pretty impressive 5.4 runs per game (including 6.4 runs per game in their last seven trips to Philly)... and with five San Diego regulars (Kotsay, White, Loretta, Vazquez, and Burroughs) batting .300 or better against Millwood (and a combined .342 with 4 HRs and 12 RBIs in 76 career at-bats), the value on the Padres seems to increase by the second... add it all up, and we are making a very strong push for San Diego, as this situation is one with an exceptional chance at cashing big...
FINAL PREDICTION: SAN DIEGO 5, PHILADELPHIA 3
Boston @ Baltimore 7:05 PM EST
Boston -145 over Baltimore (4 Units)
Boston/Baltimore Under 10 (1.5 Units)
The Red Sox have to be feeling pretty damn good about themselves right about now... not only have then been able to keep pace with the Yankees and retain the AL Wildcard lead, but they are coming off a series of incredible trades by Theo Epstein that have positioned the Sox to not only make the playoffs, but make a very serious run at the American League pennant... now Boston gets the joy of facing the lowly Orioles while the Yankees have a set against the Oakland Athletics, meaning that no matter who wins between the A's and Yanks, Boston can only improve their playoff standing, by either closing the gap on the Yanks, or extending their wildcard lead over the Athletics...
Boston has already enjoyed a decided advantage over the Orioles, winning 12 of the last 17 games between these two squads, including seven of their last eight games in Camden Yards... with a John Burkett/Pat Hentgen matchup on tap, the scales are weighted in favor of the Boys from Beantown, as Hentgen was smoked to the tune of 10 runs and 22 baserunners in 10.2 innings against the BoSox last season, while Burkett has given up just one run and nine hits in 13 innings of studliness in his last two starts against the Orioles (both starts at Camden Yards)...
Those two starts by Burkett in Baltimore have continued a strong trend where Burkett has allowed one run or less in three of his last four starts against the O's... and with players such as Marty Cordova and Jerry Hairston stuck on the DL, Burkett appears to have only one threat in a lineup that is batting just .202 against him in their careers... in fact, outside of Tony Batista's two homers and five RBIs against Burkett, the Boston righty has allowed just 11 hits in 67 at-bats against the O's, with no other active Oriole even owning a single RBI against the seasoned veteran...
On the flipside of Burkett's successes against the Orioles, Pat Hentgen has the dynamic duo of Nomar and Manny to worry about, as the pair have combined to crush 7 HRs and 14 RBIs in just 75 at-bats against Hentgen and have tallied a .360 career average the pitcher whose teams have won just once in his last five starts against the Sox... Baltimore is not only a doormat against the Red Sox as of late, but they just seem to have no idea of how to open a new series successfully, as the O's are now just 4-13 in Game One of a series after a loss... The line is certainly cheap enough for us, and with the Red Sox not only riding high from their trades, but also annoyed after losing in extras to the Rangers last night, we believe that Boston will make the proper reparations against the Orioles and continue their dominance at Camden Yards...
FINAL PREDICTION: BOSTON 5, BALTIMORE 2
Houston @ Florida 7:35 PM EST
Florida -140 over Houston (4 Units)
The red-hot Florida Marlins host what must be a disappointed Houston Astros squad, as the 'Stros may now have to continue their playoff hunt without the services of Roy Oswalt, who was placed on the disabled list for the third time, and may be lost for the season... and while the Astros have been game despite their slew of injuries during the year, this latest setback may very well be the beginning of the end for Houston... the Florida Marlins, on the other hand, are finding that their momentum is almost unstoppable, as they have soared into playoff contention with nine wins in their past ten games, have found pitching gems in Dontrelle Willis and Mark Redman, and now throw an improving Josh Beckett to the hill...
Beckett has been virtually unstoppable at home over the past month, allowing just one earned run in his last 19 innings of work, and just six ER over his last 32 innings at home... and in two starts against the Astros last season, Beckett allowed just two earned runs and six hits over 12 innings of work for a 1.50 ERA and a whopping 16 strikeouts... with the Astros batting a measly .150 against Beckett, things don't look to get much better for Houston this evening...
You see, while Josh Beckett hasn't allowed more than a run in his last four home starts, and has yet to allow an earned run at home against the Astros, Tim Redding has struggled to keep the opposition from scoring when taking the road... Redding's last three road starts have seen him unable to get past the fifth inning, while allowing at LEAST five runs on each occasion, and a total of 16 runs (12 earned), 25 hits and 8 walks in just 12 innings of work... so while Tim Redding and Josh Beckett may seem to have similar numbers on the year (with ERAs both in the threes), this is a situation where all the intangibles seem to favor Beckett... Perhaps the strongest intangible of them all is the fact that the favored team has now captured ten of the last eleven contests between these teams... and with the Astros just 2-5 in their last seven games facing a Marlins team that feels like they are on destiny's magic carpet ride, we're going with the Fish to keep the pressure on in the wildcard chase...
FINAL PREDICTION: FLORIDA 5, HOUSTON 1
Los Angeles @ Atlanta 7:35 PM EST
Atlanta -150 over Los Angeles (3.5 Units)
On a very basic level, this game should be a very easy game to figure out... take away the pitching matchups and the past history between these teams, and you have a team that has scored three runs or less in eight straight games (averaging 1.4 runs per game) facing an offensive juggernaut that hasn't scored less than three runs since July 2nd, a span of 26 games... and while the Dodgers have averaged just 1.4 runs per game during their run of futility, the Braves are scoring runs at a record pace, averaging a whopping 7.2 runs per game during their 26 game run... needless to say, this contest should be a slam dunk in favor of the Braves, but before we can hammer them completely, we must take a look at some other factors to determine how strong a wager to place...
A first look at the pitching matchup of Hideo Nomo versus Greg Maddux might convince us to think twice about playing the Braves, as Nomo has been downright exceptional this season, with a 2.65 ERA that is nearly two full runs better than Maddux's 4.55 mark on the season... and yes, on the road, Nomo has been a monster, with a 1.89 ERA on the season despite a six-inning six-run performance at Coors Field dragging down his ERA... However, in that fateful head-to-head category, Nomo's luster is a little less shiny, as the Braves have had their way with Hideo over the past several seasons... in fact, Nomo has allowed at least four runs in four of his last five starts against Atlanta, including each of his last three road starts against the Braves... in those three road tilts, Nomo has been rocked for 16 runs (14 earned), 23 hits (including 4 homers) and 11 walks in just 17.1 innings... and in his last six starts in Atlanta, Nomo's teams have won just once, and that occurred in an extra-innings 6-5 victory... somehow, we just don't see LA winning a slugfest at this point, so if Nomo is going to give his team a chance, he needs to do a much more effective job than his recent stints in Atlanta...
Greg Maddux has certainly not been the dominating force he was earlier in his career, but in allowing just two runs in each of his last three home starts (while going 23 innings, for a 2.35 ERA), Maddux has certainly looked more like his old self than earlier in the year, when he was getting torched by his divisional rivals... and considering that Maddux has allowed just one run in each of his last two home starts against the Dodgers, and has also allowed more than three runs against LA just once in his last five starts, we're willing to invest in the veteran righty to keep Los Angeles' bats struggling enough for the Braves to pick up the win... it's not as though the new faces in the Dodgers lineup will do much to help against Maddux, as Jeromy Burnitz and Robin Ventura are a horrific 10 for 58 (.172) with 17 K's against Maddux... Conversely, the Atlanta trio of Sheffield/Castilla/A.Jones is 34 for 82 (.415) with 9 homers and 21 RBIs against Hideo Nomo... Add it all up, and we can find more than enough reasons to support Atlanta here... take the Braves...
FINAL PREDICTION: ATLANTA 6, LOS ANGELES 2
Arizona @ Cubs 3:20 PM (IN PROGRESS)
Cubs +145 over Arizona (3 Units)
Cubs/Arizona Under 8.5 (3 Units)
Once again, oddsmakers have overlooked the fact that a team that can't score runs cannot win a game, as the Arizona Diamondbacks have been installed as a favorite against the Cubs despite the fact that their offense has been as bad or worse than that of the Dodgers... after losing 3-1 against Dontrelle Willis and the Marlins, the Diamondbacks have now scored just eleven runs in their past nine games, with two runs scored being the high water mark... and in their past twelve contests, the D'Backs have scored just 1.4 runs per game, scoring more than two runs just once in that span... needless to say, adding Raul Mondesi to the squad isn't likely to result in a massive turnaround with a lineup that is in serious turmoil right now...
Throw in the fact that Arizona has now dropped NINE consecutive road games, and backing them as a favorite in this contest is just bad money management, no matter the final outcome... and it's not as though Juan Cruz has been a slouch at home during his brief career, as he has allowed more than two earned runs in a home start just twice in nine career starts at Wrigley (the two exceptions were where Cruz allowed three runs and four runs)... in those nine starts overall, Cruz has a very solid 3.00 ERA, and with most of those contests coming against major league-caliber lineups, we have no problem envisioning Cruz having a good start against the likes of the D'Backs...
Curt Schilling should also be expected to pitch well, as he has been pretty solid since returning from the disabled list, and is starting to look like the guy the Diamondbacks envisioned leading them towards another World Series championship... however, not only is the D'Backs lineup so impotent as to make Schilling need a shutout to ensure victory, but the Big Schill has had some issues in Chicago, allowing eight runs in his last 13.2 innings at Wrigley, and also giving up a whopping six home runs in his last four games against the Cubs... Already, Sammy Sosa and Moises Alou have torched Schilling in his career, crushing eight longballs and knocking in 17 RBIs while batting a combined .333 in 99 at-bats... but throw in players either acquired in the offseason (i.e. Troy O'Leary and his .400 average against Schilling) or just before this trading deadline (i.e. Doug Glanville and his .357 average with two HRs), and you have a team that is batting a combined .267 against a pitcher whose only wins in his last six starts have come against the San Diego Padres...
Needless to say, we need to see some semblance of an offensive game from the Diamondbacks before we can even consider them as a favorite... instead, we will continue to find value in teams like the Cubs, who are not only tossing a solid pitcher out to the mound, but are starting a series where the home team is a very impressive 15-5 in the last twenty contests... with the Cubs having (in our estimation) a better than 50/50 chance of winning this game, getting them as a home dog is a pretty sweet deal... therefore, we will ride the anti-Arizona train yet another day and go with the Cubbies...
FINAL PREDICTION: CUBS 3, ARIZONA 2
OTHER PLAYS (no analysis):
Colorado @ Pittsburgh 7:05 PM EST
Pittsburgh -110 over Colorado (3.5 Units)
Toronto @ Anaheim 10:05 PM EST
Toronto -135 over Anaheim (3.5 Units)
White Sox @ Seattle 10:05 PM EST
White Sox +110 over Seattle (3.5 Units)
Detroit @ Minnesota 8:05 PM EST
Minnesota -1.5 runs (-120) over Detroit (2 Units)
Minnesota/Detroit Over 8.5 (3.5 Units)
San Francisco @ Cincinnati 7:10 PM EST
San Francisco -190 over Cincinnati (3 Units)
St Louis @ NY Mets 7:10 PM EST
St Louis -130 over NY Mets (2 Units)
Milwaukee @ Montreal 7:05 PM EST
Montreal -135 over Milwaukee (1 Unit)
Buzz Word Sports
August 1st MLB:
NY Yankees @ Oakland 10:05 PM EST
Oakland -115 over NY Yankees (5 Units)
It doesn't get much more impressive than the current run that Tim Hudson is on, as he has allowed more than one run just ONCE in his last seven starts, compiling a 1.17 ERA in those contests... and while facing the Yankees might be considered to be a heavy duty challenge for most pitchers, Hudson has thrived against the Bronx Bombers throughout his career... in fact, in his last six starts against Derek Jeter and company, Hudson has gone at least seven innings on every occasion without allowing more than two runs a single time... and when a pitcher has a 1.31 ERA against his opponent in his last six starts, is at home, and is barely favored, it's a pretty obvious sign that we have value with that pitcher...
Mike Mussina takes the mound for the Yankees, and while he is also a terrific pitcher in his own right, he has struggled in his last three road starts, allowing 4+ runs on each occasion, and a total of 13 runs in his last 17 innings (as well as 21 runs in his last 29.2 innings on the road)... throw on Mussina's porous track record against Oakland, and you have the making of serious trouble for the Yankees... Mussina has allowed at least four runs in each of his last three starts against the A's, and a grand total of 14 runs in his last 18.2 innings against Miguel Tejada and company... with the Yankees just 1-4 in Mussina's last five road starts overall, and Mussina's teams just 1-5 in his starts in Oakland, backing New York in this situation is not the best way to ensure profitability...
The additions of Jose Guillen and Erubiel Durazo to the Athletics won't help Mussina improve his performance against Oakland, as the pair of ex-NL players are a combined 6 for 14 against Mussina, bringing Oakland's overall team batting average against the former Oriole to a whopping .320 (with 9 HRs and 30 RBIs) in 172 at-bats... while Jose Guillen, Terrence Long and Miguel Tejada are all batting .364 or better in their careers against Mussina, Alfonso Soriano (2 for 21), Bernie Williams (2 for 17), Derek Jeter (4 for 16) and Nick Johnson (1 for 7) are batting a combined .148 against Tim Hudson, while the entire Yankees squad has just eight RBIs in 124 at-bats against the Oakland stud...
If you're worried about Mike Mussina somehow pulling a shutout performance and taking down Hudson and the A's, you can rest comfortably in the fact that Oakland has now scored at least two runs in each of their last 14 games against the Yankees... remember, Hudson hasn't allowed more than two runs in each of his last six starts against New York, so that is an essential piece of knowledge... toss in the fact that Oakland has now taken four of the last five meetings between these two, and we've got a contest that we give our highest value rating... hammer the Athletics as they take the opening game of this set...
FINAL PREDICTION: OAKLAND 5, NY YANKEES 2
San Diego @ Philadelphia 7:05 PM EST
San Diego +180 over Philadelphia (4 Units)
Lost in all the excitement of the trade deadline acquisitions of Jeff Suppan and Sidney Ponson is the fact that one of the best bargains available ended up staying put in San Diego... The Padres had been looking to move Kevin Jarvis to a contending squad, and judging by his recent performances, a team like the Phillies will likely be cursing themselves for passing up his services... after all, when your team is as bad as the Padres, and they have won each of your last five starts, you've got to be doing something right... in the case of Jarvis, he has now gone four straight starts without allowing more than two runs, giving up a total of just seven runs in his last 28.1 innings (for a 2.22 ERA)...
The Phils should have already been aware of Jarvis from his last five starts against them, as Philadelphia is 0-5 in games started by Jarvis against them, despite tenures with three different teams... in each of those five contests, Philadelphia was unable to score more than three runs in a single game, getting outscored by a final margin of 29 to 9 against the Reds, Rockies and Padres... Jarvis' tour of duty with San Diego has included two starts against the Phillies in which he gave up just two runs in 15.2 innings... and with Kevin Millwood in the midst of what appears to be a slump (allowing 11 runs and a whopping 20 baserunners in his last seven innings), Jarvis and the Pads appear to be a very strong play as an underdog this evening...
One of the frustrating aspects about the Phillies this year has been their level of streakiness and their constant refusal to take care of business against the lesser teams... Philadelphia has swept six series thus far this season, including their three game sweep of the Dodgers heading into this contest... and in their five previous follow-up contests, the Phils have registered a victory just once, displaying a team that seems to get a little overconfident after dominating their previous opponent... toss in the fact that Philly has lost their last four games against teams with losing records, and are 0-3 as a favorite of -160 or more (as well as 1-4 as a home favorite of the same spread), and Philadelphia seems to be a squad that is only geared towards success when the expectations are more tempered...
That certainly is not the case in this contest, although past experience should teach us that the Padres are a serious threat to the Phils... in fact, the Pads have won three of their last four games at Veterans Stadium, scoring at least five runs in each of those contests... and in their last twenty games against the Phils, San Diego is averaging a pretty impressive 5.4 runs per game (including 6.4 runs per game in their last seven trips to Philly)... and with five San Diego regulars (Kotsay, White, Loretta, Vazquez, and Burroughs) batting .300 or better against Millwood (and a combined .342 with 4 HRs and 12 RBIs in 76 career at-bats), the value on the Padres seems to increase by the second... add it all up, and we are making a very strong push for San Diego, as this situation is one with an exceptional chance at cashing big...
FINAL PREDICTION: SAN DIEGO 5, PHILADELPHIA 3
Boston @ Baltimore 7:05 PM EST
Boston -145 over Baltimore (4 Units)
Boston/Baltimore Under 10 (1.5 Units)
The Red Sox have to be feeling pretty damn good about themselves right about now... not only have then been able to keep pace with the Yankees and retain the AL Wildcard lead, but they are coming off a series of incredible trades by Theo Epstein that have positioned the Sox to not only make the playoffs, but make a very serious run at the American League pennant... now Boston gets the joy of facing the lowly Orioles while the Yankees have a set against the Oakland Athletics, meaning that no matter who wins between the A's and Yanks, Boston can only improve their playoff standing, by either closing the gap on the Yanks, or extending their wildcard lead over the Athletics...
Boston has already enjoyed a decided advantage over the Orioles, winning 12 of the last 17 games between these two squads, including seven of their last eight games in Camden Yards... with a John Burkett/Pat Hentgen matchup on tap, the scales are weighted in favor of the Boys from Beantown, as Hentgen was smoked to the tune of 10 runs and 22 baserunners in 10.2 innings against the BoSox last season, while Burkett has given up just one run and nine hits in 13 innings of studliness in his last two starts against the Orioles (both starts at Camden Yards)...
Those two starts by Burkett in Baltimore have continued a strong trend where Burkett has allowed one run or less in three of his last four starts against the O's... and with players such as Marty Cordova and Jerry Hairston stuck on the DL, Burkett appears to have only one threat in a lineup that is batting just .202 against him in their careers... in fact, outside of Tony Batista's two homers and five RBIs against Burkett, the Boston righty has allowed just 11 hits in 67 at-bats against the O's, with no other active Oriole even owning a single RBI against the seasoned veteran...
On the flipside of Burkett's successes against the Orioles, Pat Hentgen has the dynamic duo of Nomar and Manny to worry about, as the pair have combined to crush 7 HRs and 14 RBIs in just 75 at-bats against Hentgen and have tallied a .360 career average the pitcher whose teams have won just once in his last five starts against the Sox... Baltimore is not only a doormat against the Red Sox as of late, but they just seem to have no idea of how to open a new series successfully, as the O's are now just 4-13 in Game One of a series after a loss... The line is certainly cheap enough for us, and with the Red Sox not only riding high from their trades, but also annoyed after losing in extras to the Rangers last night, we believe that Boston will make the proper reparations against the Orioles and continue their dominance at Camden Yards...
FINAL PREDICTION: BOSTON 5, BALTIMORE 2
Houston @ Florida 7:35 PM EST
Florida -140 over Houston (4 Units)
The red-hot Florida Marlins host what must be a disappointed Houston Astros squad, as the 'Stros may now have to continue their playoff hunt without the services of Roy Oswalt, who was placed on the disabled list for the third time, and may be lost for the season... and while the Astros have been game despite their slew of injuries during the year, this latest setback may very well be the beginning of the end for Houston... the Florida Marlins, on the other hand, are finding that their momentum is almost unstoppable, as they have soared into playoff contention with nine wins in their past ten games, have found pitching gems in Dontrelle Willis and Mark Redman, and now throw an improving Josh Beckett to the hill...
Beckett has been virtually unstoppable at home over the past month, allowing just one earned run in his last 19 innings of work, and just six ER over his last 32 innings at home... and in two starts against the Astros last season, Beckett allowed just two earned runs and six hits over 12 innings of work for a 1.50 ERA and a whopping 16 strikeouts... with the Astros batting a measly .150 against Beckett, things don't look to get much better for Houston this evening...
You see, while Josh Beckett hasn't allowed more than a run in his last four home starts, and has yet to allow an earned run at home against the Astros, Tim Redding has struggled to keep the opposition from scoring when taking the road... Redding's last three road starts have seen him unable to get past the fifth inning, while allowing at LEAST five runs on each occasion, and a total of 16 runs (12 earned), 25 hits and 8 walks in just 12 innings of work... so while Tim Redding and Josh Beckett may seem to have similar numbers on the year (with ERAs both in the threes), this is a situation where all the intangibles seem to favor Beckett... Perhaps the strongest intangible of them all is the fact that the favored team has now captured ten of the last eleven contests between these teams... and with the Astros just 2-5 in their last seven games facing a Marlins team that feels like they are on destiny's magic carpet ride, we're going with the Fish to keep the pressure on in the wildcard chase...
FINAL PREDICTION: FLORIDA 5, HOUSTON 1
Los Angeles @ Atlanta 7:35 PM EST
Atlanta -150 over Los Angeles (3.5 Units)
On a very basic level, this game should be a very easy game to figure out... take away the pitching matchups and the past history between these teams, and you have a team that has scored three runs or less in eight straight games (averaging 1.4 runs per game) facing an offensive juggernaut that hasn't scored less than three runs since July 2nd, a span of 26 games... and while the Dodgers have averaged just 1.4 runs per game during their run of futility, the Braves are scoring runs at a record pace, averaging a whopping 7.2 runs per game during their 26 game run... needless to say, this contest should be a slam dunk in favor of the Braves, but before we can hammer them completely, we must take a look at some other factors to determine how strong a wager to place...
A first look at the pitching matchup of Hideo Nomo versus Greg Maddux might convince us to think twice about playing the Braves, as Nomo has been downright exceptional this season, with a 2.65 ERA that is nearly two full runs better than Maddux's 4.55 mark on the season... and yes, on the road, Nomo has been a monster, with a 1.89 ERA on the season despite a six-inning six-run performance at Coors Field dragging down his ERA... However, in that fateful head-to-head category, Nomo's luster is a little less shiny, as the Braves have had their way with Hideo over the past several seasons... in fact, Nomo has allowed at least four runs in four of his last five starts against Atlanta, including each of his last three road starts against the Braves... in those three road tilts, Nomo has been rocked for 16 runs (14 earned), 23 hits (including 4 homers) and 11 walks in just 17.1 innings... and in his last six starts in Atlanta, Nomo's teams have won just once, and that occurred in an extra-innings 6-5 victory... somehow, we just don't see LA winning a slugfest at this point, so if Nomo is going to give his team a chance, he needs to do a much more effective job than his recent stints in Atlanta...
Greg Maddux has certainly not been the dominating force he was earlier in his career, but in allowing just two runs in each of his last three home starts (while going 23 innings, for a 2.35 ERA), Maddux has certainly looked more like his old self than earlier in the year, when he was getting torched by his divisional rivals... and considering that Maddux has allowed just one run in each of his last two home starts against the Dodgers, and has also allowed more than three runs against LA just once in his last five starts, we're willing to invest in the veteran righty to keep Los Angeles' bats struggling enough for the Braves to pick up the win... it's not as though the new faces in the Dodgers lineup will do much to help against Maddux, as Jeromy Burnitz and Robin Ventura are a horrific 10 for 58 (.172) with 17 K's against Maddux... Conversely, the Atlanta trio of Sheffield/Castilla/A.Jones is 34 for 82 (.415) with 9 homers and 21 RBIs against Hideo Nomo... Add it all up, and we can find more than enough reasons to support Atlanta here... take the Braves...
FINAL PREDICTION: ATLANTA 6, LOS ANGELES 2
Arizona @ Cubs 3:20 PM (IN PROGRESS)
Cubs +145 over Arizona (3 Units)
Cubs/Arizona Under 8.5 (3 Units)
Once again, oddsmakers have overlooked the fact that a team that can't score runs cannot win a game, as the Arizona Diamondbacks have been installed as a favorite against the Cubs despite the fact that their offense has been as bad or worse than that of the Dodgers... after losing 3-1 against Dontrelle Willis and the Marlins, the Diamondbacks have now scored just eleven runs in their past nine games, with two runs scored being the high water mark... and in their past twelve contests, the D'Backs have scored just 1.4 runs per game, scoring more than two runs just once in that span... needless to say, adding Raul Mondesi to the squad isn't likely to result in a massive turnaround with a lineup that is in serious turmoil right now...
Throw in the fact that Arizona has now dropped NINE consecutive road games, and backing them as a favorite in this contest is just bad money management, no matter the final outcome... and it's not as though Juan Cruz has been a slouch at home during his brief career, as he has allowed more than two earned runs in a home start just twice in nine career starts at Wrigley (the two exceptions were where Cruz allowed three runs and four runs)... in those nine starts overall, Cruz has a very solid 3.00 ERA, and with most of those contests coming against major league-caliber lineups, we have no problem envisioning Cruz having a good start against the likes of the D'Backs...
Curt Schilling should also be expected to pitch well, as he has been pretty solid since returning from the disabled list, and is starting to look like the guy the Diamondbacks envisioned leading them towards another World Series championship... however, not only is the D'Backs lineup so impotent as to make Schilling need a shutout to ensure victory, but the Big Schill has had some issues in Chicago, allowing eight runs in his last 13.2 innings at Wrigley, and also giving up a whopping six home runs in his last four games against the Cubs... Already, Sammy Sosa and Moises Alou have torched Schilling in his career, crushing eight longballs and knocking in 17 RBIs while batting a combined .333 in 99 at-bats... but throw in players either acquired in the offseason (i.e. Troy O'Leary and his .400 average against Schilling) or just before this trading deadline (i.e. Doug Glanville and his .357 average with two HRs), and you have a team that is batting a combined .267 against a pitcher whose only wins in his last six starts have come against the San Diego Padres...
Needless to say, we need to see some semblance of an offensive game from the Diamondbacks before we can even consider them as a favorite... instead, we will continue to find value in teams like the Cubs, who are not only tossing a solid pitcher out to the mound, but are starting a series where the home team is a very impressive 15-5 in the last twenty contests... with the Cubs having (in our estimation) a better than 50/50 chance of winning this game, getting them as a home dog is a pretty sweet deal... therefore, we will ride the anti-Arizona train yet another day and go with the Cubbies...
FINAL PREDICTION: CUBS 3, ARIZONA 2
OTHER PLAYS (no analysis):
Colorado @ Pittsburgh 7:05 PM EST
Pittsburgh -110 over Colorado (3.5 Units)
Toronto @ Anaheim 10:05 PM EST
Toronto -135 over Anaheim (3.5 Units)
White Sox @ Seattle 10:05 PM EST
White Sox +110 over Seattle (3.5 Units)
Detroit @ Minnesota 8:05 PM EST
Minnesota -1.5 runs (-120) over Detroit (2 Units)
Minnesota/Detroit Over 8.5 (3.5 Units)
San Francisco @ Cincinnati 7:10 PM EST
San Francisco -190 over Cincinnati (3 Units)
St Louis @ NY Mets 7:10 PM EST
St Louis -130 over NY Mets (2 Units)
Milwaukee @ Montreal 7:05 PM EST
Montreal -135 over Milwaukee (1 Unit)
