PLEASE DON'T double up, none of these plays are very strong!! I have a definite strategy, I take lines that I feel are off by even 10 cents or less, for small amounts, and these add up over time- as opposed to just passing. Plays that offer more value, and from which it is easier to draw a conclusion from are higher, and I'll wager 1.5% on those. Just b/c a price is off doesnt mean I really like for that team to win, but the way to look at it is if they were to play this same game with the same pitching etc. over the course of 100 games, 1000 games etc, what percentage of the games would each team win? The probability/pricing chart posted in the handicapping zone shows a comparison of probability to PRICE. I dont think that my wagers are 'hot' right now, it just happens that the dogs have been barking a lot lately. Keep in mind that I have been risking an avg or .4% per wager, so a return of 2% in a week is not typical. I am actually going smaller on wagers right now, because I feel a bad streak is a little more likely to occur.
Time is your ally, one of the biggest mistakes that can be made is getting greedy and trying to make too much too fast. Give this three years, apply an edge over thousands and thousands of wagers, and you will see that small differences over time ADD UP!! There is nothing wrong with starting with a small bankroll and wagering $10 a side and investing 100$ each month into this bankroll to speed things along. In fact, this is recommended, it builds the discipline necessary, and you will start to recognize value and correlations along the way. People become millionaires on investments that return only 10% or less a year, OVER TIME. With proper strategy and discipline this market is amazing...
Time is your ally, one of the biggest mistakes that can be made is getting greedy and trying to make too much too fast. Give this three years, apply an edge over thousands and thousands of wagers, and you will see that small differences over time ADD UP!! There is nothing wrong with starting with a small bankroll and wagering $10 a side and investing 100$ each month into this bankroll to speed things along. In fact, this is recommended, it builds the discipline necessary, and you will start to recognize value and correlations along the way. People become millionaires on investments that return only 10% or less a year, OVER TIME. With proper strategy and discipline this market is amazing...
atx, been reading your posts for quite a while and your work fasciantes me.. what would you recommend for a beginning bankroll, adding $100 each month out of pocket, playing between .1% and .3% per play.. do you strictly go by value or do you actually think the play will win, example texas tonight..
ATX this might sound stupid but im just trying to find a edge myself .....what would you think the RIO would be if you took all dogs for example 100 and all favorites on the run line (-1.5) with + return example
tonight we have
angles +118
athletics -1.5 +120
baring a 1 run game this could net 18 to 20 bucks on 100.00 wonder if its wise to try this?
tonight we have
angles +118
athletics -1.5 +120
baring a 1 run game this could net 18 to 20 bucks on 100.00 wonder if its wise to try this?
for the SEA/TEX game:
Texas always has the bats to be dangerous at any time. I liked them a lot more yesterday, but Franklin's team record of 12-8 isnt extremely impressive, SEA has won 60% of games he has started with that % a ML of -150 can be applied, and that is sort of where I started with this game (I look at most games from the +EV first, and when building a case for the dog if I find more pointing to the favorite at the PRICE offered then I switch gears). Benoit is 5-7, TEX is 18-34 on the road, and SEA is 30-22 at home which all add value to SEA. Franklin's 2.78 ERA and 8.3 WHIP (per 9) over the last 3 are a little LOW and it seems a little more likely for these to go up in the short term, which I coupled with the fact that I like the TEX bats that churned out 13 hits yesterday. Dont get me wrong, it may sound like TEX should be favored from the above, but that's not the case at all. If the best I could find was TEX +185 I might pass, and the pressure OAK is putting on SEA worries me a bit, but I think this line should be more like TEX +190, TEX wins this game 35% of the time, I put .2%, .1% on the ML and ALT instead of just .1%, .1% b/c I think SEA being in a slump is a possibility. The ALT RL of +300 offers even more value with a dangerous team like TEX. With all that being said, I will be somewhat surprised if TEX actually wins, and I may get a slightly better price closer to game time. Hope this makes sense.
Texas always has the bats to be dangerous at any time. I liked them a lot more yesterday, but Franklin's team record of 12-8 isnt extremely impressive, SEA has won 60% of games he has started with that % a ML of -150 can be applied, and that is sort of where I started with this game (I look at most games from the +EV first, and when building a case for the dog if I find more pointing to the favorite at the PRICE offered then I switch gears). Benoit is 5-7, TEX is 18-34 on the road, and SEA is 30-22 at home which all add value to SEA. Franklin's 2.78 ERA and 8.3 WHIP (per 9) over the last 3 are a little LOW and it seems a little more likely for these to go up in the short term, which I coupled with the fact that I like the TEX bats that churned out 13 hits yesterday. Dont get me wrong, it may sound like TEX should be favored from the above, but that's not the case at all. If the best I could find was TEX +185 I might pass, and the pressure OAK is putting on SEA worries me a bit, but I think this line should be more like TEX +190, TEX wins this game 35% of the time, I put .2%, .1% on the ML and ALT instead of just .1%, .1% b/c I think SEA being in a slump is a possibility. The ALT RL of +300 offers even more value with a dangerous team like TEX. With all that being said, I will be somewhat surprised if TEX actually wins, and I may get a slightly better price closer to game time. Hope this makes sense.
ok, your playing perceived value.. any thoughts on a starting bankroll if one were to start tomorrow, playing .1% to .3% per play, playing mlb, nfl, nba, nhl action.. not saying im going to do it, just interesting concept. and id like to know what amount one would start with, adding $100 per month to bankroll, out of pocket.. im very familiar with the markets as i trade a little stock and a lot of commodities.
MD, playing opposite RL's blindly over a long period of time would probably get you nowhere. This is one of the things that bookmakers are sharp to, and their numbers over time wouldnt provide much of an advantage. This type of strategy does cross my mind on certain matchups, and if you pick your spots it might give you an advantage, but the risk to reward is too high. I havent looked at the numbers for this entire year, but I'm pretty sure that there have been fewer games decided by exactly one run over the last couple of years than if you look at the percentage of games over the last 20. The bookmaker's strategy is to beat people over time, in the short term they impose limits so that they maintain financial leverage for the single game. Since the book's strategy is to win over time (if it ain't broke then dont fix it) they have weaknesses to exploit in the short term. What I mean by this is they often adjust prices too slowly for teams/pitchers that get hot or are slumping (for example). The system they use works for them over time, and they can endure bad days, weeks, and months- they know the public will always chase bad numbers and the more they public wins, the more they bet- it's just a matter of time for the money to change hands. Lima is a recent example of this, his price has been far too low for his production, but now his price is catching up to him. I have made quite a bit on him lately, and will continue (probably) to ride him, but at much smaller amounts b/c he doesnt have nearly as much value as he did when he was a huge dog. I try to isolate as many subsets like this as possible and if I can make just a little on each then it adds up. Sometimes I see a lot of value and risk more, but I also handicap myself. To be honest, things have been going a little too well, I'm kind of waiting on a bad streak so I'm a lot less apt to take the same risks that I normally do. It's constant adjustment, and over time the books will make the adjustments necessary to keep people from killing them on RL middles.
I've seen a site that projects bankroll over time given each win %, with incremental additions each month. I'll try to find it again.
If you have an established advantage in baseball over a pretty large sample size then you can wager more on each event. The .4% avg that I'm wagering now is the same as what 1% was last year on baseball. My BR is larger after football and basketball. I dont have nearly as much experience in baseball as in other sports so I dont want to increase it and run the risk of giving anything back to the house until I have a fairly large sample size from which I can see an advantage (and on different scenarios).
One thing I need to tell you is not to wager larger each day after a winning day as a function of your BR. I wait until I hit a +15% plateau before making each wager larger. If you increase it daily based on a winning streak, then that increases your needed win % in order to just break even (from the day before). It takes a while to develop an optimum strategy for yourself. I didnt begin by wagering on the entire board. I may not continue it. I started with what I was good at and charted my leans. Then I started wagering on the leans, but smaller than what I really liked. During losing streaks, and when I dont feel like I can see very clearly, I go back to flat betting and cut back on wager size. Last year I wagered an avg of 1.5% on NFL games and many times picked the board. There were a couple of REALLY bad weeks, but when that happened I tried to determine how long it would take to make it all back and just chipped away. If you wager on a ton of games and apply an edge over those, you will make more, but you have to be ready to deal with the REALLY bad streaks involved, both mentally and financially. At 1% per wager most people's bankroll will be fine, the psychological warfare is the another story. It's really hard to keep doing what did so poorly a very short time ago, but getting thru those times makes you a better handicapper and teaches discipline. You really need to try to project how many games you plan on wagering on and what type of win percentage is likely AT THAT VOLUME for each sport, and look at worst case scenarios as well.
If you have an established advantage in baseball over a pretty large sample size then you can wager more on each event. The .4% avg that I'm wagering now is the same as what 1% was last year on baseball. My BR is larger after football and basketball. I dont have nearly as much experience in baseball as in other sports so I dont want to increase it and run the risk of giving anything back to the house until I have a fairly large sample size from which I can see an advantage (and on different scenarios).
One thing I need to tell you is not to wager larger each day after a winning day as a function of your BR. I wait until I hit a +15% plateau before making each wager larger. If you increase it daily based on a winning streak, then that increases your needed win % in order to just break even (from the day before). It takes a while to develop an optimum strategy for yourself. I didnt begin by wagering on the entire board. I may not continue it. I started with what I was good at and charted my leans. Then I started wagering on the leans, but smaller than what I really liked. During losing streaks, and when I dont feel like I can see very clearly, I go back to flat betting and cut back on wager size. Last year I wagered an avg of 1.5% on NFL games and many times picked the board. There were a couple of REALLY bad weeks, but when that happened I tried to determine how long it would take to make it all back and just chipped away. If you wager on a ton of games and apply an edge over those, you will make more, but you have to be ready to deal with the REALLY bad streaks involved, both mentally and financially. At 1% per wager most people's bankroll will be fine, the psychological warfare is the another story. It's really hard to keep doing what did so poorly a very short time ago, but getting thru those times makes you a better handicapper and teaches discipline. You really need to try to project how many games you plan on wagering on and what type of win percentage is likely AT THAT VOLUME for each sport, and look at worst case scenarios as well.
