YESTERDAY'S RECAP: A 13-4 record brought us back +19.45 UNITS of profit, making us 24-8, +26.85 UNITS since the start of the month... Sunday's plays posted below - best of luck!
8/3 MLB:
Arizona @ Cubs 2:20 PM EST
Cubs/Arizona Under 8 (5 Units)
(NOTE: THE OVER/UNDER CAME OUT AT 7.5 RUNS, BUT WE WILL KEEP OUR 5-UNIT PLAY)
The Over/Under hasn't even yet been set for this contest, and already we all over the Under, as these teams shouldn't even score six runs between them... and frankly, when was the last time you ever saw a total of less than 6.5 runs? Needless to say, the total on this contest should come out somewhere between 8 and 9 runs, but with Brandon Webb and Matt Clement facing off against one another, the Under ticket should cash easily no matter what the line...
Brandon Webb has been everything that the Diamondbacks could have ever asked for and more, as Webb has been Arizona's most consistent starter all season, despite not being expected to be on the major league roster... however, injuries to Arizona's dynamic duo of Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling hastened Webb's arrival, and now the D'Backs have perhaps the rookie of the year on their hands after Webb has compiled a 2.48 ERA in 116 innings of work this season... the key factor to Webb's success has been consistency, as Webb's WORST start of the season was a six-inning outing where he allowed four runs to the Giants, and that start has marked the only time where Webb has allowed more than three runs in a major league contest... perhaps the scariest realization of all is that Webb has allowed more than two runs just ONCE this season on the road, allowing just 12 total runs over 61 innings for a downright stellar 1.77 ERA... and considering that the Cubs haven't scored more than four runs against the D'Backs since 2001 (a span of eight games where they have averaged 2.4 runs per game), we have very little reason to expect an offensive outpouring for the Cubbies this afternoon...
The Under has been a goldmine with the Diamondbacks recently, as it has cashed in ELEVEN straight Arizona contests due to an offense that has scored a total of 18 runs in those contests... and with Matt Clement taking the mound for the Cubs, Arizona's offense should continue to putter along, as Clement has been surprisingly consistent in his pitching performance over the past several months... in fact, Clement now has seven consecutive quality starts under his belt (as well as ten quality starts in eleven games), with a 2.47 ERA during that seven-game span... on top of that, Clement dominated the D'Backs to the tune of just two runs and seven hits over 14.1 innings last season, while striking out 15 Arizona batters and leading the Cubs to a 2-0 mark in those starts... throw in the fact that Clement has yet to allow more than three runs in a home start against the Diamondbacks (allowing 8 runs in 26 innings for a 2.77 ERA), and you have two pitchers who seem highly unlikely to allow their opposition more than three runs in this contest, assuming that either offense even has the capability anyway...
The Under is already a perfect 8-0 between these teams since the start of last season in addition to the 11-0 Under mark currently still in effect with the Diamondbacks... with most major league totals dropping no lower than seven runs (with those only occurring in the Randy Johnson/Kevin Brown matchups), we're looking at a contest where the worst-case regulation scenario looks to be a 4-3 ballgame... with the assumption that this line will be set right around eight runs, we're hammering the Under in this one...
FINAL PREDICTION: CUBS 3, ARIZONA 2
Milwaukee @ Montreal 1:05 PM EST
Montreal -135 over Milwaukee (4 Units)
Ben Sheets and Livan Hernandez have much more in common than the fact that they are pitching this Sunday afternoon... both Hernandez and Sheets are survivors of the dreaded hype machine that declares pitchers as the next big thing so quickly that they cannot possibly ever live up to the hype... what is interesting about both these hurlers is the fact that both have started to truly hit their stride now that the expectations have been lowered for each... Sheets has compiled three straight quality starts, as well as five quality starts in his last six trips to the mound, compiling a 2.56 ERA in that span... meanwhile, Livan Hernandez has put together six consecutive quality starts, allowing just 10 earned runs in his last 50 innings of work, for a sterling 1.80 ERA...
Obviously, something has to give in this contest, and upon analyzing each pitcher's head-to-head performance against their respective opponents (as well as the head-to-head matchups between these teams in general), it becomes readily apparent that the Expos should be able to swipe their third consecutive win against the Brew Crew this afternoon... already, the Expos have captured 10 of the last 12 games between these squads, including each of their last six at home against Milwaukee... in those six contests, the smallest offensive output from Montreal (five runs) outweighs Milwaukee's greatest output of four runs, and the combined 35 to 14 run margin between these squads in those contests shows two teams who are pretty far apart indeed...
Speaking of being far apart from one another, while today's starters have been similarly strong against the rest of the league, their is a major gap between the levels of success experienced by Hernandez against the Brewers and Sheets against the Expos... Hernandez has done his part against the Brewers, allowing no more than three runs in any of his last four starts against Milwaukee... and in allowing a total of just 10 runs in his last 29.1 innings against the Brewers, Hernandez has compiled a solid and steady 3.07 ERA against Milwaukee, while limiting the Brew Crew to a .253 average... considering that this start is also at home, where Hernandez has thrived with a 1.30 ERA in his last four starts (allowing no more than two runs in any of those contests), and this contest becomes an unlikely chance of victory for the Brewers...
Sealing the deal for Montreal is their stunning offensive output against Ben Sheets, who has now allowed at least four runs in three of his four career starts against Vlad and company, and a total of 19 runs (15 earned) in 24.1 innings against the Expos... With Vlad and four other Expos starters (Vidro, Wilkerson, Cabrera and Chavez) a combined 19 for 45 (.422) with two homers and ten RBIs against Sheets, and the entire healthy Expos roster batting .351 against the "can't miss" Milwaukee starter, we're expecting Sheets to be the one to fall short of expectations this time around, as Livan Hernandez continues his hot streak at home...
FINAL PREDICTION: MONTREAL 5, MILWAUKEE 2
San Diego @ Philadelphia 1:35 PM EST
San Diego +170 over Philadelphia (4 Units)
What we have here is a play of exceptional value, as the Padres appear to have at least a 50/50 chance at success in this contest pitting Oliver Perez against Vicente Padilla... outside of two back-to-back mediocre starts in early July, Perez has been more than impressive since returning to the Padres in mid-June, allowing three runs or less in his other seven starts, and two runs or less in six of those contests... and while the Padres picked up an extra-innings loss last season in Perez's sole start against the Phils, the young lefty pitched extroadinarily well, allowing just three runs on four hits over seven innings, with two longballs being his downfall... since that time, however, one of the Phils responsible for one of the homers has moved on, and the other (Pat Burrell) is in such a terrible slump that he is batting under .200 on the season, and is highly unlikely to take Perez deep again... all in all, the current Phillies lineup is just 2 for 20 (.100) against Perez, and as such, the chances of victory for the Padres is already better than what the oddsmakers would have us expect...
San Diego has already had quite the level of success against the Phillies, with yesterday's doubleheader split giving San Diego a surprising 7-6 record in their last 13 games against the Phils... a big reason for San Diego's success against Philly has been an offense that has averaged over five runs per game in their last 23 contests against the Phils, including 5.5 runs per game in their last ten trips to Philadelphia... not too surprisingly, the Padres have taken half of those ten contests, and with the level of offensive success that San Diego has had against Vicente Padilla, their chances of yet another conquest in the City of Brotherly Love looks pretty solid...
In two 2002 starts against the Padres, Padilla has allowed eight runs and a fairly shocking 21 baserunners in just 11.1 innings, for a 6.35 ERA and a 1.85 WHIP... The fivesome of Mark Kotsay, Ryan Klesko, Gary Matthews Jr, Ramon Vazquez and Rondell White are a whopping 12 for 22 (.545) with 2 HRs and 4 RBIs against Vicente Padilla, and when you have five hitters with that strong of a track record going against a pitcher, it's virtually impossible to pass up a shot on them at +170 odds... with the Phillies just 2-5 against in their last seven games against losing squads, 1-4 in their last five contests as a favorite of -160 or more, and 2-5 as a home favorite of -160 or more, we have a squad that is already a great go-against when expected to win big... with a pitching matchup that seems to favor the Padres as well, we're hammering San Diego for the chance of the monster payout... we recommend you do the same...
FINAL PREDICTION: SAN DIEGO 6, PHILADELPHIA 3
Toronto @ Anaheim 4:05 PM EST
Toronto +100 over Anaheim (2 Units)
Toronto/Anaheim Under 9 (4 Units)
We're wondering if that whole "laidback" atmosphere on the West Coast has finally gotten a little too strong... after all, we've seen what's happened to the likes of the Dodgers and the Diamondbacks, who can't seem to score a run to save their lives, and have wasted one strong pitching performance after another to fall off the wildcard race in the National League... this same affliction seems to have attacked another West Coast team, as the defending World Champion Angels have been rendered useless on the offensive side of things, not even one year after their offense carried them to baseball's highest rung...
Injuries have certainly had their affect upon the halos, as Anaheim is currently without Troy Glaus and Brad Fullmer, while Darin Erstad remains day-to-day... however, when you're playing your tenth straight home game, and have scored more than two runs just ONCE in that span, something is horrifically wrong... Anaheim has now scored just 15 total runs in the first nine games of this homestand, picking up just two wins against seven losses to leave themselves a full three games under .500 and wondering what went so wrong...
Heading back to Anaheim's injury woes, the fact that Glaus and Erstad are both likely out of this game can only help Kelvim Escobar in his quest for a victory for the Jays, as the injured duo have combined for six of the nine career RBI the Angels have against Escobar despite 125 career at-bats amongst the team... Escobar has certainly had his successes against the Angels in his previous stint as a starter, allowing just nine runs in 31.2 innings (with four starts out of five where he allowed two runs or less)... and with the Angels still trying to figure out how to score runs in general, and having crossed the plate just 23 times in their last nine games against the Jays (an average of 2.6 runs per game), it's no wonder the Over/Under in this game shot down from 11 runs to 9, and that Anaheim has dropped from a -125 favorite to just a -110 fav...
Nonetheless, there is good reason for both of these quick adjustments, and we truly believe that value still exists in the Jays and the Under, despite the massive shift in odds... in the case of the Jays, we've stated on many an occasion that a team that cannot score should not be favored - obviously, the Angels are having trouble on the offensive side of the ball... but toss in the fact that the underdog has claimed four straight contests (and six of the last seven overall), and there are plenty of reasons to like Toronto here - of course, a 6-2 mark on the season against Anaheim certainly doesn't hurt...
As for the Under play, we've actually been very impressed with Scot Shields in the few occasion where he has received a start, as he has allowed two runs or less in each of his three starting assigments this season... nore importantly, Shields owns a dominating 1.13 ERA in 47.2 home innings this season, meaning that Toronto's run-scoring will probably not be as exciting as Jays fans might hope... and while Vernon Wells has four hits in five at-bats against Shields, the rest of the Jays are just 4 for 26 in their careers against the converted reliever... throw in the fact that the Under is a perfect 5-0 in Escobar starts against the Angels, and is 7-1-1 in the last nine meetings between these squads, and it still appears that there is some strong value in taking the Under down even further... therefore, take Toronto and the Under for a very solid double-play...
FINAL PREDICTION: TORONTO 4, ANAHEIM 2
Colorado @ Pittsburgh 1:35 PM EST
Pittsburgh -105 over Colorado (2.5 Units)
KEY TRENDS:
COL 18-41 on road (3-13 in L16)...
PIT 8-2 @ home vs COL...
PIT 17-10 @ home...
PIT 17-11 overall...
D'Amico allowed 10 ER in L33 inn @ home...
D'Amico allowed 15 ER in L51.1 inn...
Series home team 9-2...
Series home team 19-3 w/Tim Welke as ump...
Welke: home team 8-1 in Pitt games...
Welke: home team 4-0 in Oliver/D'Amico starts...
OTHER PLAYS (no analysis):
Cleveland @ Texas 8:05 PM EST
Texas -120 over Cleveland (3.5 Units)
Houston @ Florida 1:35 PM EST
Florida -170 over Houston (2 Units)
Florida/Houston Under 8.5 (3 Units)
Detroit @ Minnesota 2:05 PM EST
Minnesota -1.5 runs (-130) over Detroit (3 Units)
St Louis @ NY Mets 1:10 PM EST
St Louis -165 over NY Mets (2.5 Units)
Boston @ Baltimore 1:35 PM EST
Baltimore +155 over Boston (1 Unit)
Baltimore/Boston Under 10 (2.5 Units)
San Francisco @ Cincinnati 7:05 PM EST
Cincinnati +135 over San Francisco (1 Unit)
BEST OF LUCK!
8/3 MLB:
Arizona @ Cubs 2:20 PM EST
Cubs/Arizona Under 8 (5 Units)
(NOTE: THE OVER/UNDER CAME OUT AT 7.5 RUNS, BUT WE WILL KEEP OUR 5-UNIT PLAY)
The Over/Under hasn't even yet been set for this contest, and already we all over the Under, as these teams shouldn't even score six runs between them... and frankly, when was the last time you ever saw a total of less than 6.5 runs? Needless to say, the total on this contest should come out somewhere between 8 and 9 runs, but with Brandon Webb and Matt Clement facing off against one another, the Under ticket should cash easily no matter what the line...
Brandon Webb has been everything that the Diamondbacks could have ever asked for and more, as Webb has been Arizona's most consistent starter all season, despite not being expected to be on the major league roster... however, injuries to Arizona's dynamic duo of Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling hastened Webb's arrival, and now the D'Backs have perhaps the rookie of the year on their hands after Webb has compiled a 2.48 ERA in 116 innings of work this season... the key factor to Webb's success has been consistency, as Webb's WORST start of the season was a six-inning outing where he allowed four runs to the Giants, and that start has marked the only time where Webb has allowed more than three runs in a major league contest... perhaps the scariest realization of all is that Webb has allowed more than two runs just ONCE this season on the road, allowing just 12 total runs over 61 innings for a downright stellar 1.77 ERA... and considering that the Cubs haven't scored more than four runs against the D'Backs since 2001 (a span of eight games where they have averaged 2.4 runs per game), we have very little reason to expect an offensive outpouring for the Cubbies this afternoon...
The Under has been a goldmine with the Diamondbacks recently, as it has cashed in ELEVEN straight Arizona contests due to an offense that has scored a total of 18 runs in those contests... and with Matt Clement taking the mound for the Cubs, Arizona's offense should continue to putter along, as Clement has been surprisingly consistent in his pitching performance over the past several months... in fact, Clement now has seven consecutive quality starts under his belt (as well as ten quality starts in eleven games), with a 2.47 ERA during that seven-game span... on top of that, Clement dominated the D'Backs to the tune of just two runs and seven hits over 14.1 innings last season, while striking out 15 Arizona batters and leading the Cubs to a 2-0 mark in those starts... throw in the fact that Clement has yet to allow more than three runs in a home start against the Diamondbacks (allowing 8 runs in 26 innings for a 2.77 ERA), and you have two pitchers who seem highly unlikely to allow their opposition more than three runs in this contest, assuming that either offense even has the capability anyway...
The Under is already a perfect 8-0 between these teams since the start of last season in addition to the 11-0 Under mark currently still in effect with the Diamondbacks... with most major league totals dropping no lower than seven runs (with those only occurring in the Randy Johnson/Kevin Brown matchups), we're looking at a contest where the worst-case regulation scenario looks to be a 4-3 ballgame... with the assumption that this line will be set right around eight runs, we're hammering the Under in this one...
FINAL PREDICTION: CUBS 3, ARIZONA 2
Milwaukee @ Montreal 1:05 PM EST
Montreal -135 over Milwaukee (4 Units)
Ben Sheets and Livan Hernandez have much more in common than the fact that they are pitching this Sunday afternoon... both Hernandez and Sheets are survivors of the dreaded hype machine that declares pitchers as the next big thing so quickly that they cannot possibly ever live up to the hype... what is interesting about both these hurlers is the fact that both have started to truly hit their stride now that the expectations have been lowered for each... Sheets has compiled three straight quality starts, as well as five quality starts in his last six trips to the mound, compiling a 2.56 ERA in that span... meanwhile, Livan Hernandez has put together six consecutive quality starts, allowing just 10 earned runs in his last 50 innings of work, for a sterling 1.80 ERA...
Obviously, something has to give in this contest, and upon analyzing each pitcher's head-to-head performance against their respective opponents (as well as the head-to-head matchups between these teams in general), it becomes readily apparent that the Expos should be able to swipe their third consecutive win against the Brew Crew this afternoon... already, the Expos have captured 10 of the last 12 games between these squads, including each of their last six at home against Milwaukee... in those six contests, the smallest offensive output from Montreal (five runs) outweighs Milwaukee's greatest output of four runs, and the combined 35 to 14 run margin between these squads in those contests shows two teams who are pretty far apart indeed...
Speaking of being far apart from one another, while today's starters have been similarly strong against the rest of the league, their is a major gap between the levels of success experienced by Hernandez against the Brewers and Sheets against the Expos... Hernandez has done his part against the Brewers, allowing no more than three runs in any of his last four starts against Milwaukee... and in allowing a total of just 10 runs in his last 29.1 innings against the Brewers, Hernandez has compiled a solid and steady 3.07 ERA against Milwaukee, while limiting the Brew Crew to a .253 average... considering that this start is also at home, where Hernandez has thrived with a 1.30 ERA in his last four starts (allowing no more than two runs in any of those contests), and this contest becomes an unlikely chance of victory for the Brewers...
Sealing the deal for Montreal is their stunning offensive output against Ben Sheets, who has now allowed at least four runs in three of his four career starts against Vlad and company, and a total of 19 runs (15 earned) in 24.1 innings against the Expos... With Vlad and four other Expos starters (Vidro, Wilkerson, Cabrera and Chavez) a combined 19 for 45 (.422) with two homers and ten RBIs against Sheets, and the entire healthy Expos roster batting .351 against the "can't miss" Milwaukee starter, we're expecting Sheets to be the one to fall short of expectations this time around, as Livan Hernandez continues his hot streak at home...
FINAL PREDICTION: MONTREAL 5, MILWAUKEE 2
San Diego @ Philadelphia 1:35 PM EST
San Diego +170 over Philadelphia (4 Units)
What we have here is a play of exceptional value, as the Padres appear to have at least a 50/50 chance at success in this contest pitting Oliver Perez against Vicente Padilla... outside of two back-to-back mediocre starts in early July, Perez has been more than impressive since returning to the Padres in mid-June, allowing three runs or less in his other seven starts, and two runs or less in six of those contests... and while the Padres picked up an extra-innings loss last season in Perez's sole start against the Phils, the young lefty pitched extroadinarily well, allowing just three runs on four hits over seven innings, with two longballs being his downfall... since that time, however, one of the Phils responsible for one of the homers has moved on, and the other (Pat Burrell) is in such a terrible slump that he is batting under .200 on the season, and is highly unlikely to take Perez deep again... all in all, the current Phillies lineup is just 2 for 20 (.100) against Perez, and as such, the chances of victory for the Padres is already better than what the oddsmakers would have us expect...
San Diego has already had quite the level of success against the Phillies, with yesterday's doubleheader split giving San Diego a surprising 7-6 record in their last 13 games against the Phils... a big reason for San Diego's success against Philly has been an offense that has averaged over five runs per game in their last 23 contests against the Phils, including 5.5 runs per game in their last ten trips to Philadelphia... not too surprisingly, the Padres have taken half of those ten contests, and with the level of offensive success that San Diego has had against Vicente Padilla, their chances of yet another conquest in the City of Brotherly Love looks pretty solid...
In two 2002 starts against the Padres, Padilla has allowed eight runs and a fairly shocking 21 baserunners in just 11.1 innings, for a 6.35 ERA and a 1.85 WHIP... The fivesome of Mark Kotsay, Ryan Klesko, Gary Matthews Jr, Ramon Vazquez and Rondell White are a whopping 12 for 22 (.545) with 2 HRs and 4 RBIs against Vicente Padilla, and when you have five hitters with that strong of a track record going against a pitcher, it's virtually impossible to pass up a shot on them at +170 odds... with the Phillies just 2-5 against in their last seven games against losing squads, 1-4 in their last five contests as a favorite of -160 or more, and 2-5 as a home favorite of -160 or more, we have a squad that is already a great go-against when expected to win big... with a pitching matchup that seems to favor the Padres as well, we're hammering San Diego for the chance of the monster payout... we recommend you do the same...
FINAL PREDICTION: SAN DIEGO 6, PHILADELPHIA 3
Toronto @ Anaheim 4:05 PM EST
Toronto +100 over Anaheim (2 Units)
Toronto/Anaheim Under 9 (4 Units)
We're wondering if that whole "laidback" atmosphere on the West Coast has finally gotten a little too strong... after all, we've seen what's happened to the likes of the Dodgers and the Diamondbacks, who can't seem to score a run to save their lives, and have wasted one strong pitching performance after another to fall off the wildcard race in the National League... this same affliction seems to have attacked another West Coast team, as the defending World Champion Angels have been rendered useless on the offensive side of things, not even one year after their offense carried them to baseball's highest rung...
Injuries have certainly had their affect upon the halos, as Anaheim is currently without Troy Glaus and Brad Fullmer, while Darin Erstad remains day-to-day... however, when you're playing your tenth straight home game, and have scored more than two runs just ONCE in that span, something is horrifically wrong... Anaheim has now scored just 15 total runs in the first nine games of this homestand, picking up just two wins against seven losses to leave themselves a full three games under .500 and wondering what went so wrong...
Heading back to Anaheim's injury woes, the fact that Glaus and Erstad are both likely out of this game can only help Kelvim Escobar in his quest for a victory for the Jays, as the injured duo have combined for six of the nine career RBI the Angels have against Escobar despite 125 career at-bats amongst the team... Escobar has certainly had his successes against the Angels in his previous stint as a starter, allowing just nine runs in 31.2 innings (with four starts out of five where he allowed two runs or less)... and with the Angels still trying to figure out how to score runs in general, and having crossed the plate just 23 times in their last nine games against the Jays (an average of 2.6 runs per game), it's no wonder the Over/Under in this game shot down from 11 runs to 9, and that Anaheim has dropped from a -125 favorite to just a -110 fav...
Nonetheless, there is good reason for both of these quick adjustments, and we truly believe that value still exists in the Jays and the Under, despite the massive shift in odds... in the case of the Jays, we've stated on many an occasion that a team that cannot score should not be favored - obviously, the Angels are having trouble on the offensive side of the ball... but toss in the fact that the underdog has claimed four straight contests (and six of the last seven overall), and there are plenty of reasons to like Toronto here - of course, a 6-2 mark on the season against Anaheim certainly doesn't hurt...
As for the Under play, we've actually been very impressed with Scot Shields in the few occasion where he has received a start, as he has allowed two runs or less in each of his three starting assigments this season... nore importantly, Shields owns a dominating 1.13 ERA in 47.2 home innings this season, meaning that Toronto's run-scoring will probably not be as exciting as Jays fans might hope... and while Vernon Wells has four hits in five at-bats against Shields, the rest of the Jays are just 4 for 26 in their careers against the converted reliever... throw in the fact that the Under is a perfect 5-0 in Escobar starts against the Angels, and is 7-1-1 in the last nine meetings between these squads, and it still appears that there is some strong value in taking the Under down even further... therefore, take Toronto and the Under for a very solid double-play...
FINAL PREDICTION: TORONTO 4, ANAHEIM 2
Colorado @ Pittsburgh 1:35 PM EST
Pittsburgh -105 over Colorado (2.5 Units)
KEY TRENDS:
COL 18-41 on road (3-13 in L16)...
PIT 8-2 @ home vs COL...
PIT 17-10 @ home...
PIT 17-11 overall...
D'Amico allowed 10 ER in L33 inn @ home...
D'Amico allowed 15 ER in L51.1 inn...
Series home team 9-2...
Series home team 19-3 w/Tim Welke as ump...
Welke: home team 8-1 in Pitt games...
Welke: home team 4-0 in Oliver/D'Amico starts...
OTHER PLAYS (no analysis):
Cleveland @ Texas 8:05 PM EST
Texas -120 over Cleveland (3.5 Units)
Houston @ Florida 1:35 PM EST
Florida -170 over Houston (2 Units)
Florida/Houston Under 8.5 (3 Units)
Detroit @ Minnesota 2:05 PM EST
Minnesota -1.5 runs (-130) over Detroit (3 Units)
St Louis @ NY Mets 1:10 PM EST
St Louis -165 over NY Mets (2.5 Units)
Boston @ Baltimore 1:35 PM EST
Baltimore +155 over Boston (1 Unit)
Baltimore/Boston Under 10 (2.5 Units)
San Francisco @ Cincinnati 7:05 PM EST
Cincinnati +135 over San Francisco (1 Unit)
BEST OF LUCK!
