8/6/03 Wednesday Bases with Writeups

nepenthe · Aug 6, 2003

OK...got blistered last night with a 1-3-1 record for -2.13 units YTD with the big underdog plays all eating the dirt. Not to be fazed, here goes today's card:

Kansas City +210 (Wilson) v. CWS (Colon)
Almost a gut play here. There is no way to justify the -230 or -240 granted to CWS. KC still has the better record and has been hitting the ball pretty well, and CWS's unreal winning streak has been showing signs of rust, as they went 2-3 in the last 5 games. Wilson has a very good away record this year at 1.96 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, and although his career ERA against CWS is 4.38 with a 1.30 WHIP, Colon has an even worse career ERA against KC at 5.18 with a 1.33 WHIP. At home this year, Colon also has a much worse 4.60 ERA. I'm sucking it up and going with KC at +200 or better.

Cincinnati (Acevedo) +153 v. Los Angeles (Perez)
After yesterday's loss, I'm once again going with Cincinnati, this time with a much better pitcher in Acevedo who has a 1.29 career ERA against LA with 1.29 WHIP, and this year's away record of 3.00 ERA and 0.78 WHIP. Perez's career ERA against Cincinnati is 1.74 with a 0.77 WHIP, while his home record this year is 3.61 ERA with 1.01 WHIP. This figures to be a pitcher's duel, and with the lackluster way in which both teams are hitting the ball, I'd gladly take the underdog at +145 or better.

Might add more later...all plays are listed pitchers only and all risking the same amount. Good luck.

nepenthe · Aug 6, 2003

Felt compelled to add this one:

Texas (Thomson) +190 v. NYY (Wells)

I bet on Texas yesterday and lost, but feel I'm justified in pressing on here. Thomson's away ERA overall as well as vs. the Yankees is substantially similar to Well's home ERA overall and vs. Texas. Texas has similar or better bats than Yankees right now, and I see no reason not to take them as a +190 underdog.

Still searching...if I don't find anything else, I'll pray for a 2-1 day for a big payoff. Gluck

NYReb · Aug 6, 2003

With those 3, you can go 1-2 and break even. Not bad.

You know, I guess you are just being realistic in your approach, but when I select my games, I fully intend to win them all. I'm not going in it hoping I break even or come out a bit ahead. Realistically, of course, I'm always to not lose, but my attitude is to go for it all. I accept no losses until I'm finally faced with the reality of the final score not being in my favor. See every game as a winner right from the beginning, and you'll definitely come out ahead in the long run.

Don't mean to be preachy, I make a living as a motivator and teaching people to win at whatever they do, and I just had to throw in my 2 pennies worth.

For what it's worth, I'm on KC and Cincy, too, so I'm definitely hoping you have a great day. Good luck!