Sat bases with experiment results

For those of you who may have been reading my posts you know I bet a few games with the +1.5 RL. My experiment is that if a team averages around 2 runs per game and they are the favorite (usually when their ace is pitching) then it's hard for that team to win by 2 or more. Since 7/27/03, taking the dog at +1.5 against a team averaging less than 3 runs per game has won 20 times out of 28. Taking the dog at +1.5 against a team averaging less than 2.5 runs per game has won 14 times out of 17! I must add an exclusion to this principle and that is to not take the dog when the moneyline is +200 or worse.

Yesterday I went 2-1-1 for +1.21 giving me a 2-day total for the week of 5-3-1 for +2.47. I had Montreal to win yesterday along with the under in that game before there was a pitching change so I did not count those as wins in my record. All games are based upon pitcher of record.

SF/Mon under 8.0 -125
Schmidt/Day
Both pitchers pitching well lately. Both teams not scoring well lately.

Mon +1.5 -118
SF averaging 3 runs per game in their last 4. Mon plays better at home, SF plays worse on the road.

Hou/Cin under 9.0 +109
Miller/Etherton
New pitcher Etherton will confound Houston hitters. Both teams have not hit well except for last night causing this line to become inflated.

Cin +1.5 +105
Cin is resurgent lately. Houston averaging 3 runs per game in their last 4.

Atl -1.5 +114
Dessens/Ramirez
I made a lot of money when Atl was hot a couple weeks ago. They have recently found their bats and the D'backs are still cold. Time to back the money truck up. Watch this team in the next few games.

Adding the following game:

SD/Fla over 7.5 -104
Lawrence/Willis
I can't see why this is so low except maybe that Lawrence's last performance was a shutout. Fla has gone over in 5 out of their last 6 and Willis has gone over in 5 of his last 6 games.

Adding the following game:

Ana -218
Ledezma/Sele
I'm looking to fade the Tigers any time I can get -220 or better while Ledezma, Roney or Cornejo are pitching. Here are their respective recent records.

Cornejo 2-8
Roney 1-9
Ledezma 2-7
Combined 5-24

Bonderman (Det) however is 4-2 in his last 6 games. I'm looking for a good value for his next few games.