128-81 (61%) posted record...Colorado Rockies @ New York Mets

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NL East cellar-dwellers the New York Mets go for their fifth straight win today when they continue their series against the Colorado Rockies.

And today we're going to do something for the very first time this season....recommend the Mets -1.5 !!

We strongly believe that New York -1.5 +145 today against the worst road team in the National League offers excellent value.

The Mets have won eight of their last 11 overall and five straight at home. During this winning streak at Shea Stadium they are scoring an average of nine runs per game while allowing just three! Overall this season they are 52-69 (.430) but do boast a winning record against the NL West going 12-11.

Veteran leftie Al Leiter is 11-6 this season with a 4.68 ERA. He allowed three earned runs in five innings of work at Arizona in his last outing but prior to that loss had allowed a total of three earned runs in his previous four starts. His .647 winning percentage ranks ninth in the NL which is very impressive considering the Mets otherwise woeful record.

Colorado are 61-64 (.488) overall but it's their record away from home that is most relevant today. The Rockies are an NL-worst 20-45 on the road including 2-8 their last 10 and just 5-14 since the All Star Break. They have not had a winning road trip all season.

2002 NL Rookie of the year Jason Jennings gets the start for Colorado today. He is 10-10 this season with a 4.74 ERA and has lost four of his last five decisions. On the road Jennings has a brutal 3-10 record with a 5.00 ERA and 1.708 WHIP. A clear example of his problems on the road are his strikeout-to-walk numbers. It's hard to believe but in his last seven road starts Jennings has walked 23 batters while striking out just 11! Those numbers are a recipe for disaster and if that 2:1 ratio remains today we have no doubt New York will win.

The Mets have completely outplayed the Rockies in the first two games of this series and at juicy odds on the run-line we're forecasting that to continue today.

Recommended Play: Mets -1.5 -145

Good luck
Mike
 

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I don't mean to be anal about this but you have the line mentioned at -1.5 +145 in the first part and -1.5 -145 at the end. I believe you were correct the first time at -1.5 +145.

I was debating about taking this line also and I think I will now that you explained it so well. The Mets are on a tear lately and Colorado has not been able to muster much in run production lately.

I'm taking the over on this one as well as the line is at 8.0. The Mets have averaged 8 runs per game in their last 4 and with Jennings on the mound for Colorado I see this to continue. I'm guessing the line is so low because of Leiter. This is another opportunity to make money off a bad line.

Thanks for the input Mike.
 

Shaman; Prophet; Seer
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Good luck on your game! I like your reasoning.
 

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