thanks, Raiders.
to be honest I barely noticed. I've been up for almost 3 days now, working on football, and gearing my money management system to handle larger wager sizes. Last week I went through a stretch where I lost 26 out of 34 games, not counting RL's. I'm pumped, it didnt hurt me at all, I spent a lot of time trying to safeguard against that sort of streak that will occur every couple thousand of wagers, and usually it takes at least two and a half weeks to recover and I'm almost back in less than a week. The key thing was I DID NOT STOP. NFL caught fire, and that was how I caught up so fast, not by doubling wager size or playing on games that I normally wouldnt have.
TEX -1.5 -118 for .3%
CLE +160 for .2%
CLE -1.5 +250 for .2%
HOU +126 for .3%
HOU -1.5 +208 for .1%
KC -1.5 +295 for .1%
to be honest I barely noticed. I've been up for almost 3 days now, working on football, and gearing my money management system to handle larger wager sizes. Last week I went through a stretch where I lost 26 out of 34 games, not counting RL's. I'm pumped, it didnt hurt me at all, I spent a lot of time trying to safeguard against that sort of streak that will occur every couple thousand of wagers, and usually it takes at least two and a half weeks to recover and I'm almost back in less than a week. The key thing was I DID NOT STOP. NFL caught fire, and that was how I caught up so fast, not by doubling wager size or playing on games that I normally wouldnt have.
TEX -1.5 -118 for .3%
CLE +160 for .2%
CLE -1.5 +250 for .2%
HOU +126 for .3%
HOU -1.5 +208 for .1%
KC -1.5 +295 for .1%
had trouble getting in...
TB +115 for .2%
TB -1.5 +214 for .1%
COL +120 for .2%
COL -1.5 +181 for .1%
PITT +132 for .3%
PITT -1.5 +235 for .1%
over 10 +100 for .2%
PHI -1.5 +105 for .2%
SF -1.5 -119 for .2
CIN +195 for .1%
CIN -1.5 +370 for .1%
yesterday +.529%
last week -3.399% survived the worst streak I'll probably have all year--lost 26 out of 34 plays over 2 days
2wksprev +1.829%
3wksprev +1.938%
4wksprev +7.597%
5wksprev +1.517%
over 12% return on avg of .4% wager during 5wks is a lot better than I can expect.
TB +115 for .2%
TB -1.5 +214 for .1%
COL +120 for .2%
COL -1.5 +181 for .1%
PITT +132 for .3%
PITT -1.5 +235 for .1%
over 10 +100 for .2%
PHI -1.5 +105 for .2%
SF -1.5 -119 for .2
CIN +195 for .1%
CIN -1.5 +370 for .1%
yesterday +.529%
last week -3.399% survived the worst streak I'll probably have all year--lost 26 out of 34 plays over 2 days
2wksprev +1.829%
3wksprev +1.938%
4wksprev +7.597%
5wksprev +1.517%
over 12% return on avg of .4% wager during 5wks is a lot better than I can expect.
ATX, you're my money management hero. This is how a pro plays the game. You can have a bad luck streak (as everyone does) and it doesn't bankrupt you. Twenty years ago I hit 14 college football games in a row and less than 2 months later lost 10 college basketball games in a row and it bankrupt my bankroll because I was betting a large percentage of my bankroll on each bet.
Have you done any averages such as daily win average or yearly unit gain?
One more question, why do you still continue to put in the effort to post here when you could happily go on your winning ways? Thanks for putting in the time.
Have you done any averages such as daily win average or yearly unit gain?
One more question, why do you still continue to put in the effort to post here when you could happily go on your winning ways? Thanks for putting in the time.
MIL +164 for .2
MIL -1.5 +273 for .2%
LA +142 alv for .2%
LA -1.5 +230 for .1%
PIT +135 for .3%
PIT -1.5 +234 for .1%
SD +180 for .1%
SD -1.5 +255 for .1%
NYM +156 for .2%
NYM -1.5 +299 for .1%
CIN +154 for .2%
CIN -1.5 +295 for .1%
under 9 -120 for .3%
COL +178 for .2%
COL -1.5 +263 for .1%
under 8.5 -115 for .2%
MIL -1.5 +273 for .2%
LA +142 alv for .2%
LA -1.5 +230 for .1%
PIT +135 for .3%
PIT -1.5 +234 for .1%
SD +180 for .1%
SD -1.5 +255 for .1%
NYM +156 for .2%
NYM -1.5 +299 for .1%
CIN +154 for .2%
CIN -1.5 +295 for .1%
under 9 -120 for .3%
COL +178 for .2%
COL -1.5 +263 for .1%
under 8.5 -115 for .2%
news,
yesterday wasnt bad luck, it was a bunch of mistakes on my part. I didnt sleep for over 3 days, and I emailed some people saying that I liked DET a lot, and there were a bunch of home dogs that had a shot, then for some reason I changed my mind after I took a nap.
I didnt lose that much as a %, but I lost a lot relative to what I would have gained. It happens, and this is why money management is so important.
In the past I have typically returned over triple digits as a percentage per 3000 wagers on an average of appx 1% per wager, moneylines and special subsets and angles push the return incredibly high compared to other markets. I may become a little less risk averse now and decrease wager size a little from last year's NFL 1.5% and 2nd half angles of 1.5% to 2%. This year (my fiscal year runs from NCAA football to NCAA football) I met my annual goal for all sports before the football season was over. The NFL playoffs thread is still there and you will see that I was risking quite a bit on each playoff game, when I'm up so much for the regular season, I reconfigure wager size for the playoffs since I typically win closer to 60% on playoff games, it's what I call a subset. I made 50% in the NBA and college baskets within 3 months even with a terrible FEB. Did alright after that thru the regular season, and my NCAA bowl angle was too good to be true, as was the NCAA basketball tourney angle for the first two rounds. I caught fire in the NBA playoffs and I think the playoff thread is still there in the NBA forum. Past results dont necessarily mean a repeat in the future, but I actually think it's hard to lose. I spent probably 80 hours a week during basketball season learning the NBA. I've bet on football every year for 6 or 7 years, the NBA for 2- part of 3, and last year was my first in baseball. I'm still a beginner compared to the majority of people, but I dont let what other people say limit what I expect.
And that's the main reason I post. One of the best ways to see if you are on track, is to post your thoughts and see if other people agree or disagree. If people criticize, then they may point out something you may have missed. I do know several people in the industry, which I met thru these forums, and that is another reason, to meet people to learn from. One thing I realized recently is that some of the ideas that I have are subconsciously typed. I start typing and then I read what I have written, and then it dawns on me why I like a team in a certain situation etc. etc. etc. If you see enough numbers a lot of this becomes second nature and instinctive.
yesterday wasnt bad luck, it was a bunch of mistakes on my part. I didnt sleep for over 3 days, and I emailed some people saying that I liked DET a lot, and there were a bunch of home dogs that had a shot, then for some reason I changed my mind after I took a nap.
I didnt lose that much as a %, but I lost a lot relative to what I would have gained. It happens, and this is why money management is so important.
In the past I have typically returned over triple digits as a percentage per 3000 wagers on an average of appx 1% per wager, moneylines and special subsets and angles push the return incredibly high compared to other markets. I may become a little less risk averse now and decrease wager size a little from last year's NFL 1.5% and 2nd half angles of 1.5% to 2%. This year (my fiscal year runs from NCAA football to NCAA football) I met my annual goal for all sports before the football season was over. The NFL playoffs thread is still there and you will see that I was risking quite a bit on each playoff game, when I'm up so much for the regular season, I reconfigure wager size for the playoffs since I typically win closer to 60% on playoff games, it's what I call a subset. I made 50% in the NBA and college baskets within 3 months even with a terrible FEB. Did alright after that thru the regular season, and my NCAA bowl angle was too good to be true, as was the NCAA basketball tourney angle for the first two rounds. I caught fire in the NBA playoffs and I think the playoff thread is still there in the NBA forum. Past results dont necessarily mean a repeat in the future, but I actually think it's hard to lose. I spent probably 80 hours a week during basketball season learning the NBA. I've bet on football every year for 6 or 7 years, the NBA for 2- part of 3, and last year was my first in baseball. I'm still a beginner compared to the majority of people, but I dont let what other people say limit what I expect.
And that's the main reason I post. One of the best ways to see if you are on track, is to post your thoughts and see if other people agree or disagree. If people criticize, then they may point out something you may have missed. I do know several people in the industry, which I met thru these forums, and that is another reason, to meet people to learn from. One thing I realized recently is that some of the ideas that I have are subconsciously typed. I start typing and then I read what I have written, and then it dawns on me why I like a team in a certain situation etc. etc. etc. If you see enough numbers a lot of this becomes second nature and instinctive.
a professional? Well, I never got drafted, lol. I dont know of any tests or courses one must pass. I think it's best to leave labels to whoever cares about that sort of thing. I've done really well over the last few years, but that doesn't guarantee success in the future.
8/14
FLA +107 for .2%
FLA -1.5 +218 for .1%
under 6.5 +103 for .2%
PHI -1.5 -120 for .4%
TEX -1.5 -114 for .4%
PITT +135 for .3%
PITT -1.5 +249 for .1%
CLE (waiting for poss line move)
CLE under 8.5 +110 for .2%
8/14
FLA +107 for .2%
FLA -1.5 +218 for .1%
under 6.5 +103 for .2%
PHI -1.5 -120 for .4%
TEX -1.5 -114 for .4%
PITT +135 for .3%
PITT -1.5 +249 for .1%
CLE (waiting for poss line move)
CLE under 8.5 +110 for .2%
I understand what you are getting at. It's just not a good idea to get caught up in the "I'm better than him, him, her bullsh**". Honestly, I still consider right now just the beginning. The system based on HIGH VOLUME that I'm using now began about a year ago after I decided it was in my best interest to better diversify risk and streaks and after I realized that with a lot of work this method can actually be more profitable. I avoid contests, posting wars, and challenges for the most part--these things get in the way of what I'm trying to accomplish. BUT, I don't like people who LIE, PAD, or TRY TO MISLEAD OTHERS, there's no way that I let people possibly damage others by posting untruths. Just look at JJ's posting about USC, now the AUB line has gone from pick to -3, what a lying P.O.S., I hope no one took USC at pick b/c of that liar.
I dont do many writeups (it's just not possible) but I spend 8-12 hours a day on baseball, I dont just say to myself "I think I like CLE today" it takes a lot of time to figure out what the line should be and put a corresponding wager amount based on value before the line moves.
I like Oklahoma State +17 over OU for 2.5%
I dont do many writeups (it's just not possible) but I spend 8-12 hours a day on baseball, I dont just say to myself "I think I like CLE today" it takes a lot of time to figure out what the line should be and put a corresponding wager amount based on value before the line moves.
I like Oklahoma State +17 over OU for 2.5%
