MLB for the week of 8/18

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ATX

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ATL -144 for .3%
ATL -1.5 +139 for .1%
under 9 -120 for .3%

MON -1.5 +136 for .2%

NYM -121 for .4%
NYM -1.5 +155 for .1%
under 9 -120 for .3%
 

ATX

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thanks Blue,

11 in a row, I hate these streaks.

TEX -144 for .4%, no value on RL.

KC +152 or better for .4%
KC -1.5 +219 or better for .2%
I would imagine there will be a line move prior to this game, I doubt this will go up more but every little bit counts

leaning to ANA, TB.

leaning to MNF TB over 37.5
 

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> 11 in a row, I hate these streaks. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

It's a bitch, ain't it? LOL

Good luck guy. Maybe I'll see you over in the NFL forum.
 

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TEX -144 for .4%, no value on RL.


ATX ATX LOOK AT THE FACTS, last 27 losses for tigers 2 losses were by 1 run. IF YOU PLAYED THE RUN LINE YOU WOULD HAVE BEEN 25-2 in detroits last 27 lossesw LOOK IT UP. NO VALUE WTF MY ASS NO VALUE, you are laying a lot much less, if for some reason the tigers won this game YOUR LOSS WOULD BE LESS. EXAMPLE when the tigers swept the sox at home you woulda lost 4.2 units compared to 6.4 units (-190 Garland,-210 colon, -240 loaiza), LOOK AT THE FACTS PLEASE PLEASE. If the tigers win this game there was much value in playing the run line as its 25-2 in tigers last 27 losses. Because if the rangers win odds are it will be more than by 1 run.
 

ATX

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RL should be about +125 to +140.

DET may win this game, I've noticed that good bats often go cold against previously unseen pitchers. This play is based on Valdes having enough to pull off a close victory. I thought about just taking TEX RL for .3%, but my gut held me off.

Those stats you mentioned take away the value from the RL.
 

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Well, close to accurate, but the Tigers lost two straight 3-2 games to the Twins just a few days ago. I know, 'cause I had the run-line in both games
icon_frown.gif
 

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IF you bet against the tigers you gotta lay a lot of chalk so occasionally like yesterday i'll take the RL against them, a nice win, a loss isnt gonna kill me.


I NOTICED THIS THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR THE TIGERS WENT 0-9 and lost all 9 games by more than 1 run.
 

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ATX-

You are right about those new pitchers. They want to make a good impression. It's a fundamental principle in baseball (I call it the Fernando Valenzuela theory) that hitters have to see new pitchers pitch a few times before getting their hitting down.
 

ATX

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I understand that you should keep playing against DET on the RL if you have been doing that for a while. I havent. It's just not a good idea for someone to try to jump on streaks midstream when the value isnt there. After DET wins a couple I am looking at a similar strategy for the last leg of the MLB season.
 

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those stats do not take away value i understand a win is a win whether you lay 400 each time. But you have to factor in the times you lose when you bet on tigers. to find the value. ie If you played the tigers RL you'd be better off than if you played the moneyline. Since your losses were less when the tigers won.
 

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if the tigers were in a lot of 1 run losses the RL would have no value said more simply. the ML would then have more value, thanks for your time.
 

ATX

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yep, I understand. I also figure that this is exactly a one run game appx 50% of the time.
 

ATX

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if historical values had a 5% predictive advantage everyone would be rich.
 

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obviously that would assume the rays were the dog in all those games etc. etc. But I just found it amazing that if you played the tigers getting a run and a half every game to begin the season you woulda lost your first 9 outta the gate. I think the RL has value in many situations, high scoring games laying it and low scoring games taking etc.
Of course it isn't allways a value to lay 200 against the tigers at home with the likes of jon garland pitching either.
 

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