9/10 MLB:
Philadelphia @ Atlanta 7:05 PM EST
Philadelphia +110 over Atlanta (5 Units)
Philadelphia/Atlanta Under 8.5 (1.5 Units)
Whenever we can get Vicente Padilla against the Braves at underdog odds against the Braves, we are all ears, for Padilla has absolutely owned Atlanta during his brief career in the majors... in nine career starts against Gary Sheffield and company, Padilla has yet to allow more than two runs in a contest, giving up a total of just 12 runs (11 earned) over 55.2 innings for a paltry 1.78 ERA that has now led the Phils to five straight victories over their division rivals... in fact, Philly must be wondering what their odds would be at a divisional championship this season if their other starters could rival Padilla's success against the Braves, as Philly is a perfect 4-0 this season with Padilla on the mound against the Braves, as Philly is just 4-6 in their other contests against the Braves (with Randy Wolf helping to provide three of those victories), and are still a full 11 games behind the division leaders...
While the NL East may be too far from their grasp, the Phils should be able to maintain a share of the wildcard lead with a victory in this contest, as Philly has now scored a total of 38 runs in their last four games in Atlanta, a run over which they have claimed three of four contests... and considering that the Phils have scored at least four runs in 11 of their last 12 games during a 10-2 burst, we have a difficult time seeing Philly being shut down enough to overcome a typical Padilla performance against Atlanta...
Horacio Ramirez has been very solid in his first season as a starter for the Braves, but he has now allowed at least two runs in each of his last eleven starts, a fact that doesn't bode well against Padilla, who has yet to allow more than two runs in nine starts against the Braves... and while Ramirez has an overall ERA of 4.17 on the season, his last ten starts have seen the rookie give up a whopping 40 runs (36 earned) for a less than satisfactory 5.20 ERA... additionally, Ramirez has been rocked in three of his last four home starts, allowing 5+ runs to Arizona, Houston and the Mets during an 18 run (14 earned), 23.2 inning span that has put his home ERA at 5.32 during that time...
Vicente Padilla, on the other hand, has been pitching well in general as of late, allowing just one run and eight hits in his last 16 innings of work, while striking out 15 batters... considering that the Phils are also 6-6 in their last twelve games in Atlanta (with Padilla going 3-1, with a 2-1 loss as his only downfall), we see their chances of success in this contest as better than 50/50... with underdog odds on their side and a rate of success that looks to be strong in this situation, we're all over Philly to pick up yet another win over the Braves...
FINAL PREDICTION: PHILADELPHIA 5, ATLANTA 2
Toronto @ Tampa Bay 7:15 PM EST
Tampa Bay -120 over Toronto (5 Units)
Tampa Bay -1.5 runs (+150) over Toronto (3 Units)
The Tampa Bay Devil Rays can heartily thank the Blue Jays for their improvement this season, as the D'Rays have out and out owned Toronto in their head-to-head matchups this season, going a whopping 10-3 against Toronto this season, while owning just a 48-81 mark against the rest of the league... heading back to last season, the Devil Rays have now captured 13 of the last 17 meetings between these squads, including 9 of 12 games in Tampa... and with the improving Jorge Sosa facing off against the faltering Mark Hendrickson this evening, we see no reason to go against Tampa this time around...
Overall, these are two teams whose season records hide the truth about the current state of these squads... take away Tampa Bay's horrific 25-53 start to the season, and you are looking at a team that has now gone 33-31 in their last 64 games... meanwhile, take a look at Toronto's last 64 games and you'll find a team that is just 26-38, a full seven games worse than the Devil Rays... needless to say, supporting a Tampa squad that has continues to improve against a Toronto team that has been crashing and burning is not a very difficult proposition... The concept becomes even easier to swallow when we realize that the Devil Rays have not only won 8 of their last 12 home games (including a 5-1 mark with two victories over Seattle and Oakland, and one last night against these Jays), and that the Tampa Bay offense has now exploded for a whopping 29 runs in their last three contests overall...
Much like the pendulum swing these two teams have experienced since the midway point of the season, the two pitchers taking the mound this evening also appear to be headed in very opposite directions... while Jorge Sosa has been showing flashes of brilliance, allowing two runs or less in four of his last five starts, Mark Hendrickson has regressed to a point where we wonder whether he will be able to get his act back together... after a very encouraging start to his career, the former basketball standout has been abysmal, allowing 14 runs (13 earned) in his last 13.2 innings on the road... additionally, Hendrickson's last three starts have been just depressing, as the lefthander failed to pitch a full five innings in any of those contests, while allowing a distasteful 14 runs (13 earned) and 22 hits in just 10.2 innings of work...
Toronto has already lost each of Hendrickson's last three starts against the Devil Rays, with Hendrickson allowing 11 runs over 18.1 innings in those contests (resulting in a 5.40 ERA)... meanwhile, each of Jorge Sosa's starts against the Blue Jays have seen the youngster improve on his previous performance, with his last two starts ending with just three runs allowed over 12.1 innings in a pair of Tampa Bay wins... outside of one contest where Sosa was unable to escape the first inning against the Royals, Sosa has been a monster at Tropicana Field, allowing just four runs in his last 37 innings since joining the starting rotation, for an ERA of 0.97... in other words, this contest should not only be a victory for the Devil Rays, this is a contest that looks to have potential blowout written all over it... with that in mind, we give Sosa and the Devil Rays our highest possible recommendation...
FINAL PREDICTION: TAMPA BAY 7, TORONTO 1
Minnesota @ White Sox 8:05 PM EST
White Sox +105 over Minnesota (5 Units)
Johan Santana has been quite the revelation for the Minnesota Twins, making Minnesota fans wonder the eternal what if... what if Santana had been allowed to start off the season in the Minnesota rotation instead of only getting a half a season of dominating starts to work with? Perhaps the Twins wouldn't be looking up at the White Sox in the Central Division and feeling the heat to win here in order to gain ground on Chicago...
However, as well as Santana has pitched this season in his starting role, it appears that his magic won't carry over to this contest against Jon Garland and the division-leading White Sox... after all, Santana has been ripped apart by the ChiSox lineup in his three career starts against them, allowing 19 runs and 20 hits (including SIX home runs) in just 13.2 innings of work, for a nearly ridiculous 12.51 ERA... and with the Chicago lineup batting a combined .304 in their careers against the lefthander, Santana and the Twins look to be in some trouble in this contest...
Jon Garland hasn't been nearly as dominant as Johan Santana in a starter's role this season, but his recent performance must have White Sox fans excited, as Garland has now strung together five consecutive quality starts, and has allowed two runs or less in three of his last four starts overall for a 2.86 ERA... in his career against the Twins, Garland has been consistently solid, allowing two runs or less in five of his last six starts against Minnesota, and giving up a grand total of just 12 runs (11 earned) in his last 37.1 innings against Torii Hunter and company (for a 2.65 ERA)...
Already, we see some serious value in the White Sox as a home dog in this one, just from the head-to-head pitching statistics alone... however, in viewing the way in which this series has played out over the past two years, that value is to the point of ludicrous proportions... not only is Chicago an amazing 10-1 in their last eleven home games against the Twins (scoring 5+ runs on nine of the eleven occasions, and averaging a whopping 7.3 runs per game in that span), but the home team has also now captured 17 of the last 20 games between these squads... toss in the fact that the White Sox are 11-9 after a win in game three of a series, while the Twins are 7-13 after a loss, and we have all the incentive we need in this one... however, just to add good measure - while Chicago is 27-8 in their last 35 home games (including 4-1 as a home dog), the Twins are 16-24 in their last 40 road games, and just 10-12 as a road fav (and are just 1-5 this season as a road fav against teams above .500)... hammer the ChiSox as a home dog here...
FINAL PREDICTION: WHITE SOX 6, MINNESOTA 2
Cubs @ Montreal 7:05 PM EST
Montreal -120 over Cubs (3.5 Units)
Montreal/Cubs Over 8.5 (3 Units)
KEY TRENDS:
Clement 4-6, 4.98 ERA on road
Clement allowed 5+ runs in L3 starts in MTL (15 runs/22 hits in 14 innings)
Clement allowed 15 runs in L16 innings on road
Hernandez 9-4, 2.53 ERA at home
Hernandez allowed <=3 runs in L12 starts
Hernandez allowed just one run in each of L4 home starts (1.09 ERA)
Hernandez allowed 13 runs (12 earned) in L12 home innings versus Cubs
Sosa/Alou/Ramirez/Simon 30-81 (.370) with 7 HRs/24 RBIs vs Hernandez
OVER 7-3 in series
Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati 7:10 PM EST
Pittsburgh -120 over Cincinnati (2.5 Units)
KEY TRENDS:
PITT scored 6+ runs in L7 @ CIN
PITT 7-1 at Cincinnati
Perez allowed <=2 runs in 3 of L4 road starts
CIN batting .228 against lefthanders
road team 9-2 in series
OTHER PLAYS (no analysis):
Anaheim @ Oakland 10:05 PM EST
Oakland -140 over Anaheim (2.5 Units)
Oakland/Anaheim Under 8 (3.5 Units)
Los Angeles @ Arizona 9:35 PM EST
Los Angeles +130 over Arizona (1.5 Units)
Los Angeles/Arizona Under 7 (3 Units)
Houston @ Milwaukee 8:05 PM EST
Milwaukee/Houston Over 9 (1.5 Units)
Cleveland @ Kansas City 8:05 PM EST
Kansas City -130 over Cleveland (1 Unit)
Texas @ Seattle 10:05 PM EST
Texas +160 over Seattle (1 Unit)
THANKS FOR LOOKING AND GOOD LUCK!!
Philadelphia @ Atlanta 7:05 PM EST
Philadelphia +110 over Atlanta (5 Units)
Philadelphia/Atlanta Under 8.5 (1.5 Units)
Whenever we can get Vicente Padilla against the Braves at underdog odds against the Braves, we are all ears, for Padilla has absolutely owned Atlanta during his brief career in the majors... in nine career starts against Gary Sheffield and company, Padilla has yet to allow more than two runs in a contest, giving up a total of just 12 runs (11 earned) over 55.2 innings for a paltry 1.78 ERA that has now led the Phils to five straight victories over their division rivals... in fact, Philly must be wondering what their odds would be at a divisional championship this season if their other starters could rival Padilla's success against the Braves, as Philly is a perfect 4-0 this season with Padilla on the mound against the Braves, as Philly is just 4-6 in their other contests against the Braves (with Randy Wolf helping to provide three of those victories), and are still a full 11 games behind the division leaders...
While the NL East may be too far from their grasp, the Phils should be able to maintain a share of the wildcard lead with a victory in this contest, as Philly has now scored a total of 38 runs in their last four games in Atlanta, a run over which they have claimed three of four contests... and considering that the Phils have scored at least four runs in 11 of their last 12 games during a 10-2 burst, we have a difficult time seeing Philly being shut down enough to overcome a typical Padilla performance against Atlanta...
Horacio Ramirez has been very solid in his first season as a starter for the Braves, but he has now allowed at least two runs in each of his last eleven starts, a fact that doesn't bode well against Padilla, who has yet to allow more than two runs in nine starts against the Braves... and while Ramirez has an overall ERA of 4.17 on the season, his last ten starts have seen the rookie give up a whopping 40 runs (36 earned) for a less than satisfactory 5.20 ERA... additionally, Ramirez has been rocked in three of his last four home starts, allowing 5+ runs to Arizona, Houston and the Mets during an 18 run (14 earned), 23.2 inning span that has put his home ERA at 5.32 during that time...
Vicente Padilla, on the other hand, has been pitching well in general as of late, allowing just one run and eight hits in his last 16 innings of work, while striking out 15 batters... considering that the Phils are also 6-6 in their last twelve games in Atlanta (with Padilla going 3-1, with a 2-1 loss as his only downfall), we see their chances of success in this contest as better than 50/50... with underdog odds on their side and a rate of success that looks to be strong in this situation, we're all over Philly to pick up yet another win over the Braves...
FINAL PREDICTION: PHILADELPHIA 5, ATLANTA 2
Toronto @ Tampa Bay 7:15 PM EST
Tampa Bay -120 over Toronto (5 Units)
Tampa Bay -1.5 runs (+150) over Toronto (3 Units)
The Tampa Bay Devil Rays can heartily thank the Blue Jays for their improvement this season, as the D'Rays have out and out owned Toronto in their head-to-head matchups this season, going a whopping 10-3 against Toronto this season, while owning just a 48-81 mark against the rest of the league... heading back to last season, the Devil Rays have now captured 13 of the last 17 meetings between these squads, including 9 of 12 games in Tampa... and with the improving Jorge Sosa facing off against the faltering Mark Hendrickson this evening, we see no reason to go against Tampa this time around...
Overall, these are two teams whose season records hide the truth about the current state of these squads... take away Tampa Bay's horrific 25-53 start to the season, and you are looking at a team that has now gone 33-31 in their last 64 games... meanwhile, take a look at Toronto's last 64 games and you'll find a team that is just 26-38, a full seven games worse than the Devil Rays... needless to say, supporting a Tampa squad that has continues to improve against a Toronto team that has been crashing and burning is not a very difficult proposition... The concept becomes even easier to swallow when we realize that the Devil Rays have not only won 8 of their last 12 home games (including a 5-1 mark with two victories over Seattle and Oakland, and one last night against these Jays), and that the Tampa Bay offense has now exploded for a whopping 29 runs in their last three contests overall...
Much like the pendulum swing these two teams have experienced since the midway point of the season, the two pitchers taking the mound this evening also appear to be headed in very opposite directions... while Jorge Sosa has been showing flashes of brilliance, allowing two runs or less in four of his last five starts, Mark Hendrickson has regressed to a point where we wonder whether he will be able to get his act back together... after a very encouraging start to his career, the former basketball standout has been abysmal, allowing 14 runs (13 earned) in his last 13.2 innings on the road... additionally, Hendrickson's last three starts have been just depressing, as the lefthander failed to pitch a full five innings in any of those contests, while allowing a distasteful 14 runs (13 earned) and 22 hits in just 10.2 innings of work...
Toronto has already lost each of Hendrickson's last three starts against the Devil Rays, with Hendrickson allowing 11 runs over 18.1 innings in those contests (resulting in a 5.40 ERA)... meanwhile, each of Jorge Sosa's starts against the Blue Jays have seen the youngster improve on his previous performance, with his last two starts ending with just three runs allowed over 12.1 innings in a pair of Tampa Bay wins... outside of one contest where Sosa was unable to escape the first inning against the Royals, Sosa has been a monster at Tropicana Field, allowing just four runs in his last 37 innings since joining the starting rotation, for an ERA of 0.97... in other words, this contest should not only be a victory for the Devil Rays, this is a contest that looks to have potential blowout written all over it... with that in mind, we give Sosa and the Devil Rays our highest possible recommendation...
FINAL PREDICTION: TAMPA BAY 7, TORONTO 1
Minnesota @ White Sox 8:05 PM EST
White Sox +105 over Minnesota (5 Units)
Johan Santana has been quite the revelation for the Minnesota Twins, making Minnesota fans wonder the eternal what if... what if Santana had been allowed to start off the season in the Minnesota rotation instead of only getting a half a season of dominating starts to work with? Perhaps the Twins wouldn't be looking up at the White Sox in the Central Division and feeling the heat to win here in order to gain ground on Chicago...
However, as well as Santana has pitched this season in his starting role, it appears that his magic won't carry over to this contest against Jon Garland and the division-leading White Sox... after all, Santana has been ripped apart by the ChiSox lineup in his three career starts against them, allowing 19 runs and 20 hits (including SIX home runs) in just 13.2 innings of work, for a nearly ridiculous 12.51 ERA... and with the Chicago lineup batting a combined .304 in their careers against the lefthander, Santana and the Twins look to be in some trouble in this contest...
Jon Garland hasn't been nearly as dominant as Johan Santana in a starter's role this season, but his recent performance must have White Sox fans excited, as Garland has now strung together five consecutive quality starts, and has allowed two runs or less in three of his last four starts overall for a 2.86 ERA... in his career against the Twins, Garland has been consistently solid, allowing two runs or less in five of his last six starts against Minnesota, and giving up a grand total of just 12 runs (11 earned) in his last 37.1 innings against Torii Hunter and company (for a 2.65 ERA)...
Already, we see some serious value in the White Sox as a home dog in this one, just from the head-to-head pitching statistics alone... however, in viewing the way in which this series has played out over the past two years, that value is to the point of ludicrous proportions... not only is Chicago an amazing 10-1 in their last eleven home games against the Twins (scoring 5+ runs on nine of the eleven occasions, and averaging a whopping 7.3 runs per game in that span), but the home team has also now captured 17 of the last 20 games between these squads... toss in the fact that the White Sox are 11-9 after a win in game three of a series, while the Twins are 7-13 after a loss, and we have all the incentive we need in this one... however, just to add good measure - while Chicago is 27-8 in their last 35 home games (including 4-1 as a home dog), the Twins are 16-24 in their last 40 road games, and just 10-12 as a road fav (and are just 1-5 this season as a road fav against teams above .500)... hammer the ChiSox as a home dog here...
FINAL PREDICTION: WHITE SOX 6, MINNESOTA 2
Cubs @ Montreal 7:05 PM EST
Montreal -120 over Cubs (3.5 Units)
Montreal/Cubs Over 8.5 (3 Units)
KEY TRENDS:
Clement 4-6, 4.98 ERA on road
Clement allowed 5+ runs in L3 starts in MTL (15 runs/22 hits in 14 innings)
Clement allowed 15 runs in L16 innings on road
Hernandez 9-4, 2.53 ERA at home
Hernandez allowed <=3 runs in L12 starts
Hernandez allowed just one run in each of L4 home starts (1.09 ERA)
Hernandez allowed 13 runs (12 earned) in L12 home innings versus Cubs
Sosa/Alou/Ramirez/Simon 30-81 (.370) with 7 HRs/24 RBIs vs Hernandez
OVER 7-3 in series
Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati 7:10 PM EST
Pittsburgh -120 over Cincinnati (2.5 Units)
KEY TRENDS:
PITT scored 6+ runs in L7 @ CIN
PITT 7-1 at Cincinnati
Perez allowed <=2 runs in 3 of L4 road starts
CIN batting .228 against lefthanders
road team 9-2 in series
OTHER PLAYS (no analysis):
Anaheim @ Oakland 10:05 PM EST
Oakland -140 over Anaheim (2.5 Units)
Oakland/Anaheim Under 8 (3.5 Units)
Los Angeles @ Arizona 9:35 PM EST
Los Angeles +130 over Arizona (1.5 Units)
Los Angeles/Arizona Under 7 (3 Units)
Houston @ Milwaukee 8:05 PM EST
Milwaukee/Houston Over 9 (1.5 Units)
Cleveland @ Kansas City 8:05 PM EST
Kansas City -130 over Cleveland (1 Unit)
Texas @ Seattle 10:05 PM EST
Texas +160 over Seattle (1 Unit)
THANKS FOR LOOKING AND GOOD LUCK!!
