Lately I've just been fading the losers and doing quite well with it. However I've come across a game that I think deserves a good analysis. Don't sell your house, don't sell your car, don't put your wife out on the streetcorner to bet this game. Any game, especially baseball lately can have a pitcher have a bad day and ruin your bet.
With that said, I am betting on the Diamondbacks/Dodgers game to go under tonight. Anyone who watched this game on ESPN last night will see how ineffective both teams are, especially at Dodger Stadium. Rather than have all of you read through long paragraphs, I feel it is easier to make my point through bullet-points. Here is my case-
LA Dodgers (scoring)
-The Dodgers are 24-47 o/u at home this year averaging just over 3 runs per game.
-The Dodgers' last 5 games at home have gone under.
-The Dodgers are averaging between 3 and 4 runs during that time.
-The Dodgers are dead last in 5 offensive categories.
-Shawn Green is in a season-long slump, only hitting 17 HR's this year.
LA Dodgers pitching (Alvarez):
-Alvarez is MLB's most consistent pitcher (even more consistent than Kerry Wood) not giving up more than 3 earned runs in his last 8 games.
-Alvarez has gone under in 3 out of 4 of his games at home (the 4th game was a push).
-Alvarez has a 0.32 ERA at home (that's not a typo).
-The Dodgers have one of the best bullpens in the league.
AZ hitting:
-AZ is 25-46 on the road this year averaging less than 4 runs per game.
-AZ played under in the last 5 games played in Dodgers Stadium.
AZ pitching (Batista):
-Batista is 2-12 o/u on the road this year.
-Batista has a 3.00 road ERA.
The only fly in the ointment I see here is Batista. He has been roughed-up in a couple recent games. However, LA's inept hitting should not be a challenge for him.
This line was at -117 for UNDER 7.0 last night. I think the line move to 6.5 gives an even better value.
AZ at LA UNDER 6.5 +101
With that said, I am betting on the Diamondbacks/Dodgers game to go under tonight. Anyone who watched this game on ESPN last night will see how ineffective both teams are, especially at Dodger Stadium. Rather than have all of you read through long paragraphs, I feel it is easier to make my point through bullet-points. Here is my case-
LA Dodgers (scoring)
-The Dodgers are 24-47 o/u at home this year averaging just over 3 runs per game.
-The Dodgers' last 5 games at home have gone under.
-The Dodgers are averaging between 3 and 4 runs during that time.
-The Dodgers are dead last in 5 offensive categories.
-Shawn Green is in a season-long slump, only hitting 17 HR's this year.
LA Dodgers pitching (Alvarez):
-Alvarez is MLB's most consistent pitcher (even more consistent than Kerry Wood) not giving up more than 3 earned runs in his last 8 games.
-Alvarez has gone under in 3 out of 4 of his games at home (the 4th game was a push).
-Alvarez has a 0.32 ERA at home (that's not a typo).
-The Dodgers have one of the best bullpens in the league.
AZ hitting:
-AZ is 25-46 on the road this year averaging less than 4 runs per game.
-AZ played under in the last 5 games played in Dodgers Stadium.
AZ pitching (Batista):
-Batista is 2-12 o/u on the road this year.
-Batista has a 3.00 road ERA.
The only fly in the ointment I see here is Batista. He has been roughed-up in a couple recent games. However, LA's inept hitting should not be a challenge for him.
This line was at -117 for UNDER 7.0 last night. I think the line move to 6.5 gives an even better value.
AZ at LA UNDER 6.5 +101