Playoffs Wednesday 10/01/03

Search

Veteran
Joined
Aug 20, 2002
Messages
12,002
Tokens
4-3 YESTERDAY (Marlins play hurt - Hopefully I posted it late enough that none of you followed. Schmidt is a beast)


Braves total OVER 4.5 -120 (3 units) - Beteurosport
Marlins +1/2 +100 (1st 5 innings) (1 unit) - Beteurosport
Red Sox -148 (3 units)
Bos/Oak UNDER 7 -112 (5 units)
A's total UNDER 3 -105 (1 unit) - Beteurosport

-MC
 

Veteran
Joined
Aug 20, 2002
Messages
12,002
Tokens
Some reasoning behind the plays.

Braves OVER 4.5 is a play largely due to the way Zambrano has been pitching of late. The Braves should be able to pound him. The Braves middle of the lineup will not be held to 1 RBI tonight. Furcal will be on base alot and Giles, Sheffield, Jones, Jones, Lopez will be sure to knock them in tonight.

Marlins +1/2 for the 1st 5 innings is a play because I think the Marlins will keep this close. Maybe even a tie through 5. Penny has been pitching well and the Marlins D saves at least 1 run a game. Last night if not for the Cabrera error the score would have been 0-0 through 5.

Red Sox -148 is a play based on 2 reasons. The first reason is the Pedro factor. When he is on the mound the Red Sox always have the edge. He is the best pitcher in the major leagues. He will show it tonight under the lights in a pitchers park. The 2nd reason is 'Pedro'. If there were 5 more reasons they would all be 'Pedro'. Oh yea...Boston's lineup is amazing. I see a 3-1 type of game.

Bos/Oak UNDER 7 is my biggest play for one simple reason: The pitching matchup. Both of these guys have been lights out. They are arguably the top 2 pitchers in the American League. They are pitching in a pitchers park (lots of foul territory). Oakland does not score many runs and Hudson should be able to neutralize some of that potent Boston lineup. This should be a very low scoring affair.

A's total UNDER 3 is a play for reasons I mentioned above. The A's have a terrible On Base % and that will only make Pedro better. The less people on base means Pedro is throwing less pitches. I can easily see him going 7 innings tonight. If thats the case, the A's will have a tough time scoring any runs, let alone 3.

Enjoy the games people! I love this time of year!

-MC
 

bhg

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
354
Tokens
I hope for Pedro's sake they don't have to bring that bullpen in - that there could blow the under and especially the Under 3 A's. I like the Under for the game play - a's bullpen is very solid as is hudson at home.
 

Veteran
Joined
Aug 20, 2002
Messages
12,002
Tokens
Blwon head Gasket - Pedro is healthy. A healthy pedro means a dominant performance. If he gets through the 7th then A's won't score 3. If he can't make it through 7, then its a moot point. Red Sox are done. I see Pedro coming through tonight. in a big way. The A's lineup doesn't put any fear into him. Chavez? Tejada? Durazo? These guys are sluggers. But they also are prone to the K. A Pedro specialty. Pedro is perhaps the most - baseball - intelligent pitcher in the game. He studies every batter and he never forgets what happened last AB or last time he faced you. Even if it was 5 months ago. If he sees you can't catch his fastball, he will use it against you for your next three AB's. He is a pitching genius. When healthy, there is no one better. Prior, Schilling, Johnson, Brown, Oswalt, Zito, Halladay can not lay a finger on a healthy Martinez. Bad news for the A's....Pedro is healthy for tonight.

-MC
 

Veteran
Joined
Aug 20, 2002
Messages
12,002
Tokens
Some Pedro stats:
- Martinez (14-4, 2.22 ERA) is 3-0 in his postseason career with a 1.13 ERA, spanning three appearances.
- He is 2-0 in two career ALDS games, with 19 strikeouts in 17 innings.
- He is 6-2 with a 2.16 ERA in nine career games and starts against Oakland.
- Pedro finished the season by winning his final four decisions, allowed the league to hit just .204 against him, while striking out 206 and walking 47.

AMAZING

-MC
 

Member
Joined
Feb 21, 2001
Messages
4,111
Tokens
MC-like the call on the A's under, as I am betting all games under today while making the A's game my biggest play also.
 

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
280
Tokens
Nice to see someone not shying away from a low team total..... A's have to score four runs to beat that play, and I can't see them doing that either. They're a HORRIBLE offensive team....Tejada/Chavez picked it up in the 2nd half, but they've still got flaws up and down that lineup.

NOT A SINGLE starter in that lineup hit's over .300..... their best hitter in terms of avg is Chavez, hitting .282. That is just downright horribl.e
 

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
1,765
Tokens
I too had the same concerns that BHG had regarding the Boston bullpen. Perhaps a bet on the UNDER 3 1/2 for the 1st 5 innings would be a good bet in this case.

Each of yesterday's 3 games had only 1 run scored in the 1st 5 innings. It seems to me that is the likely scenario for these playoff games.
 

Veteran
Joined
Aug 20, 2002
Messages
12,002
Tokens
Knockout - Thanx for noticing. 3 is a very low number. But after taking into account what Pedro can do and what he has already done (posted above) that with the fact that the A's lineup is not filled with good contact hitters and have a very low on base%.....I can't see them scoring 4 runs tonight. I would have loved the line to be 3.5 so I could win with 3, but I think there is more of a chance they score 2 than 4.

-MC
 

Veteran
Joined
Aug 20, 2002
Messages
12,002
Tokens
BGO - This is the postseason. Boston will not let its pen get in the way of their WS hopes. If Pedro is on and he doesn't have an abnormally high pitchcount, he will get into at least the 8th.

-MC
 

New member
Joined
Sep 20, 2004
Messages
995
Tokens
Mad.. I'm usually with you on most picks, butI havce to warn you about your statement about the Boston pen.
"Boston will not let its pen get in the way of their WS hopes"
This statement, as great as it sound to a Sox fan, or someone who bet on the Sox (myself included), it is entirely unrealistic. Of course the pen will get in the way. Pedro is their only pitcher who might sniff past the 6th or 7th inning, so in one way, they would LOVE to conserve their pen tonight to save them for when Wakefield or Lowe get shelled.. BUT if they are up by a considerable amount, say more than 2-3 runs, a manager, no matter how bad his bullpen is, must show some confidence in their players, especially in game 1 of the playoffs. Having worked in the last 3 years as a clubhouse manager in AA baseball, I know that noone is more fragile on a baseball team than a reliver. They are guys who need their teammates/coaches confidence more than anyone else. unless they are either complete nutcases like Beck, Gagne, Fetters, etc... But the Sox' pen is full of shaky, unconfident players. Tonight will be a good indicator of what kind of playoff team this is. If they are up in the 8th like say 3-1, 4-1, 4-2 or whatever and Pedro is still in, they may as well go home for the season. No matter how bad a pen is, they absolutely need them to win this and any other series. They need Pedro healthy and fresh for game 4 or 5. I can't predict whether or not they will be effective, but I expect Little to use his pen tonight.

Relivers arn't important in winning a WS? 2 of the last 7 WS MVP's have been relivers. This will be the Sox' downfall, but not until the next round.
I'm not good at typing/saying what I mean, I hope this makes some sense. Basically, with the Sox lineup and pen, I wouldn't touch any o/u for this series.
 

Veteran
Joined
Aug 20, 2002
Messages
12,002
Tokens
I was talking specifically for tonights game.
A. I think Pedro can get through 7 tonight, easily.
B. I don't see the Red Sox going up by more than 2 runs at any time tonight with Hudson on the hill, so Pedro will be in longer.
C. They want to win game 1 with their ACE on the mound on the road tonight. They can not let this game slip away. If they are not ahead 1 game to nothing after a Pedro start, then they might as well go home after the game. The pen will definatley be needed when Lowe and Wakefield are on the hill.
D. It's not an absolute that their pen will give up runs.

Just my humble opinion. Thanx for your feedback.

-MC
 

Veteran
Joined
Aug 20, 2002
Messages
12,002
Tokens
Good info from Bobby Valentine on baseball tonight just now.

The home plate ump in tonights Braves game has a very stingy strike zone. Zambrano might walk alot of people.

OVER might be an even better play now. But I have seen the number has gone up already in some places.

-MC
 

New member
Joined
Sep 20, 2004
Messages
995
Tokens
Killed with the Fish today Mad...jumped all over the ALT runline at +220... also jumped on the changed series line +350... I love this team... Rueter and Williams and their bullpen don't scare me at all! I said they would win in 5, thinking Schmidt would win his 2 starts figuring he'd be moved up from game 5 to 4 when they are down 2-1... and the fish shock the Giants at home in game 5. Do you think the line is going to move? The Marlins are favored slightly fr game 3... should I jump on it, or wait in hopes the public will bet on the favored Division champs?
 

Veteran
Joined
Aug 20, 2002
Messages
12,002
Tokens
I show my face when I win and now I will show my face when I lose.
Terrible 1-5 yesterday!

Lost the Red Sox play, Under for that game, Under for A's total in the bottom of the 9th! Three loses on 1 pitch!

Lost both marlins 1st 5 innings plays in the bottom of the 5th!

Won the Braves total OVER real late.

What a terrible night!

All I can say is I am very sorry!

-MC
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,106,898
Messages
13,439,286
Members
99,339
Latest member
billcunninghamhomeloans
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com