Tuesday, 10/07/03 -- The 2nd round begins!

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bhg

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Hey MC - I really like the under 8.5 - its moving fast but in the cold, i think Beckett's power and zambrano's sinker PLUS the nerves keep this game low. Thoughts?
 

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BHG:

I like the UNDER here too. Both pitchers have been going under lately with a couple exceptions later in the year. The Cubs have a general tendency toward the under as well. I think the reason this line is at 8.5 is because these are not the aces for each club. However each pitcher has a rather low ERA.

Good pitching trumps good batting. The pitchers are focused in this important series.
 

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The Cold isn't going to be a factor at all. The Midwest is currently in the middle of an unseasonly warm spell. The high in chicago today is supposed to be 75 with it never getting colder than 55 tonight. Plus Zombrano has struggled lately, and he is already 60 innings over his previous high. The Pen had better be ready. I like the Marlins +113 and if anything the over. If the Marlins don't win this one it could be a short series with Wood and Prior pitching games 2 and 3.
 
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This game should sail OVER the total. BigDaddy is right about the cold not being a factor, and Zambrano struggled as of late. However, there are a couple other factors that are more important.


First, the Marlins will run all day on Cubs pitching. The Cubbies are very poor at holding runners on base. As emotional as Zambrano is I expect him to be frustrated by the Fish on the bases.


Secondly, the Cubs are a very good fast ball hitting team. "Chicks dig the long ball" will be alive and well tonight at Wrigleyville with Beckett blazing his 95+ an hour fastball. He had better use his curve a lot tonight otherwise he will be is serious sh*t!


Look at how the Cubs hit Smoltz and his fastballs. They will not be scared of Beckett's pitching. Another thing to consider is this....first inning jitters. Both Zamby and Beckett are pitching in a HUGE game. I expect both teams to take a lot of pitches early. Especally the Fish, then steal, hit and run, manufacture a run or two.

The Fish beat a very good Giant team and can score runs late as we all saw. I put ZERO stock in the Cubs bullpen and if Zamby has to leave early (by early I mean 7th inning or less) the Fish will get into that bullpen and if your money is on the Cubs or the under then you need some devine intervention. Anyone have any other thoughts on this?

[This message was edited by Stalker-Dude on October 07, 2003 at 01:31 PM.]

[This message was edited by Stalker-Dude on October 07, 2003 at 02:22 PM.]
 

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stalker i agree totally.game is an over play for me.my local has it at 8 though not 8 1/2,gl
suomi.gif
 

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Sorry. I have been very busy of late.

Adding:
Marlins total OVER 4 -105 (2 units) - Beteurosport

I see Pierre and Castillo causing alot of trouble for Zambrano.

-MC
 

bhg

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Hey thanks guys - I'm off the under, thanks for helping me fill in the holes in my thinking today.

GLTA - you guys think the fish will be a better price close to gametime? (+110 pinny)
 

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Hey MAD:

I also use eurosport and am quite pleased with them. How have you been doing with team totals lately? What do you think of Cubs total over 4 -120. I was leaning to FL over 4, but now a little concern because of the home field and the fact they haven't scored much at Wrigley this year. I had Indy total over 17 last night. Thought that a big loser.
 

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Vegas - I love it there. The Cubbies do not score alot and I can not see them scoring more than 4 tonight. Plus if they are leading, they will have one less half inning to score more.

I do use the team totals. I am fairly successful with them.

-MC
 
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Also with Crawford behind the plate his games go like this:


Home Team 4.9 runs per game (-5.3 units season)

Away Team 6.0 runs per game


The O'U with Crew Cheif Crawford is 18/13


The NL has a lot of 1st and 2nd NLCS umps:

Chuck Meriweather 1st LCS

Feild Culbreth 1st LCS

Mike Evritt 2nd LCS

Larry Poncino 2nd LCS

Mike Reilly 7th LCS


Just so everyone knows this is Jerry Crawford's 10th LCS over 23 years
 

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MAD: Ain't it great to not have to watch the rest of the game after the 3rd? I was kicking myself after the Cubs scored 4 in the 1st to at least get a push.
 

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