Pound the over +125!!

Everyone is expecting a low scoring game with the big names Lowe and Pettitte... and Yankees recent game have gone under (11-3-1 under L15). JohnQ public sees these 2 names + playoffs and think low scoring, hence the value.

BUT.... these are the two biggest offenses in the league, and Lowe is not the same Lowe on the road vs. at home. Lowe has a 6.11 ERA on the road this year, and his L16 road starts have gone over 14-2 of L16! 7-2 of L9 matchups vs these two teams have gone over.

Lowe has success by throwing pitches out of the strike zone and having hitters chase... he doesn't mind walking hitters b/c he feels he can get the next guy to hit a ground ball. That might work against teams where only the 3 and 4 hitter can beat you... but Yankees have pop throughout the lineup so look for Lowe walks + big hits = lots of runs.

Pettitte is solid overall. He's good, but not dominating, and Boston has pop. Pettitte will give up his usual 4-5 runs vs. this good Boston lineup and Yankees will cover the rest.

good luck dottom

Thanks, I appreciate it. After getting my butt kicked by Oakland's anti-clutch abilities, it's time for a comeback!

I know a lot of ppl are on the under but I feel there is value on the over. Some cappers don't believe in value but I do.

It is also very interesting to see how Lowe does on the road in this spot. He was used in relief twice in Oakland series, and although he is technically coming off 4 days rest, he has really only had two "normal" days of rest here. He came on for a 17-pitch relief in game 5, which of course involves warm up, plus any post-celebratory effects. However, that outing came on 1-days rest after a 100-pitch start, which was only on 1 days rest after a pitching in relief for 42 pitches. So there's a bit of wear & tear, and considering Lowe's pattern of high ERA road outings, I think this is an important variable.

Lowe has pitched very well in September, so I can see the under/Boston debate, but in tonight's case I think the offenses take over. Both pitchers are good but not "lights out" so offense wins in this matchup.

At least that's the way I'm betting!

Good luck to all.

After 1.5 innings, this game has all the looks of an over, but so far the offenses haven't been taking advantage of their opps.

Looks like Pettitte might be gone around the 4th based on command & pitch count

Wow!!!!. You really do not have a handle on the game of baseball. There are alot of good starters out there that struggle early and then settle in. Ex. Roger Clemens, Jack Morris need i list more. Anyways good luck with your picks the rest of the way.

Dottom,

this is not to bash you just a suggestion. Never post, or even say your play looks good, or is doing well 'till you see that ticker show "final" and your winning score. Boasting how your play is gonna hit is always a deal breaker. Call me superstitious or whatever. I think it pays (literally) to ride it out quietly.

-DP-