Why the Fish are correct to send out Beckett in game 6

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I see a lot of arguments in this forum saying he should go in game 7 e.t.c blah blah blah

Essentially the only question that needs to be answered is this.

Beckett must pitch in game 6 if the benefit of having Pavano over Redman in game 7 is greater than the loss of having Beckett on short days rest.

I'll use the current pinnacle lines to explain my reasoning.

Game 6, Yankees -174 and Florida +166
Game 7, Yankees -210 and Florida +192

I'll remove the vig so we will have roughly
Game 6, Yankees -170 Florida +170
Game 7, Yankees -200 Florida +200

and the associated probabilities
Game 6, Yankees 63.0% Florida 37.0%
Game 7, Yankees 66.7% Florida 33.3%

As things stand chance of Yankees winning series 0.630 x 0.667 = 42% and Florida of course 58%

Now first we'll deal with the easy part, Josh pitching on 3 days instead of 4 days rest. When I see how effective Beckett was versus the Cubs on 2 days rest, honestly I estimate this to be worth no more than 20 cents it's really not that big of a deal.

Now what about the difference of having Pavano pitch over Redman.

Redman's 4 postseason starts

2 2/3 innings, 4ER
3 innings, 5ER
6 2/3 innings, 2ER
6 innings, 2ER

Pavano
8 innings, 1ER
5 2/3 innings, 2ER

Redman seems to exhibit the characteristics of somebody who is running out of gas where as Pavano who has pitched less innings in October seems to have plenty in the tank.

Now lets make an adjustment of 20 cents for Beckett pitching on full rest by making the line -150/+150 for game 6 instead of -170/+170


Beckett start, Yanks -150 (60%) Florida +150 (40%)

So in game 7 for the Yankees to have an equal chance of winning the series compared to before they must win this game (0.42/ 0.6) = 70% of the time which would equate to a line of -233. So a crude way to compare is to compare the present situation to one where Beckett pitches game 6 and Redman pitches game 7.

So tell me if you were forced to make a bet on Florida for game 7 and had the choice of:

FLORIDA (Redman) +233 vs Yankees (Mussina) -233 vs

or

FLORIDA (Pavano) +210 vs Yankees (Mussina) -210

Which one would it be?

For me no choice for a measly 23 cents I’ll take Pavano who simply dominated the Yanks last time around and even on 3 days rest he won’t have to go deep as Penny can come out the pen on 2 days rest for a couple innings. Rather than Redman who has been lit up his last 2 starts.

Hope this helps

BH
 

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