First, you want to know how much a pitcher is going to be used. Most pitchers these days aren't great, so pitching staffs are overworked.
If a pitcher has a live arm - basically meaning he hasn't been overused - a manager with a taxed bullpen is likely to try to get him to a higher pitch count. Unless he's Pedro, this presents a number of opportunities.
Should you consider the over? Should you consider the other side?
This is not as obvious a statistic as hits+walk/innings pitched ratios, or ERA in recent starts. But it has possibilities:
Always try to know how many pitches the starter threw in his last appearance, and how many he regularly throws. Then look at the team's recent bullpen use.
If it's set up that the bullpen needs rest and the starter can go, say, 90 pitches, he likely will be allowed to give up more runs than normal.
In a manager's eyes, sacrificing one game for a healthy bullpen is fair trade. In a gambler's eyes, the sacrifice is all that matters.
If a pitcher has a live arm - basically meaning he hasn't been overused - a manager with a taxed bullpen is likely to try to get him to a higher pitch count. Unless he's Pedro, this presents a number of opportunities.
Should you consider the over? Should you consider the other side?
This is not as obvious a statistic as hits+walk/innings pitched ratios, or ERA in recent starts. But it has possibilities:
Always try to know how many pitches the starter threw in his last appearance, and how many he regularly throws. Then look at the team's recent bullpen use.
If it's set up that the bullpen needs rest and the starter can go, say, 90 pitches, he likely will be allowed to give up more runs than normal.
In a manager's eyes, sacrificing one game for a healthy bullpen is fair trade. In a gambler's eyes, the sacrifice is all that matters.
I've tried every system under the sun the last 33 years trying to figure out a way to beat baseball. Everybody claims they make a fortune betting it every year but I consider it a big season if I get out alive.
It's probably my favorite sport and I spend a lot of time on it, charting pitchers etc because I need the info at work. But it really is a grind. Looking forward to your input during the regular season.
I'm chomping at the bit waiting for someone to put up over/under win totals. I think there's money to be made there if you do your homework and have money to tie up for the entire season.
I'm hoping the underate the Rockies and I can go over 80-81 wins. Most of the teams in the NL-West took a step back with the possible exception of the Padres, and they're still probably a year away.
It's probably my favorite sport and I spend a lot of time on it, charting pitchers etc because I need the info at work. But it really is a grind. Looking forward to your input during the regular season.
I'm chomping at the bit waiting for someone to put up over/under win totals. I think there's money to be made there if you do your homework and have money to tie up for the entire season.
I'm hoping the underate the Rockies and I can go over 80-81 wins. Most of the teams in the NL-West took a step back with the possible exception of the Padres, and they're still probably a year away.
Mr Misanthrope wrote> "I've tried every system under the sun the last 33 years trying to figure out a way to beat baseball. Everybody claims they make a fortune betting it every year but I consider it a big season if I get out alive. "
Oh good, I thought I was the only one.
I like to make a list (usually 1 or 2 in each league) of the teams that will be overrated and go against them EVERY DAY for the 1st month. Also like to go with teams I think will be underrated for the 1st month.
I also like to list the pitchers that I think will either have bounce back years or "come back to earth" seasons(like a Matt Clement on the Cubs)
And I like to list the pitchers that just plain SUCK! They are everywhere. James Baldwin,Jeff Weaver...those type of guys.
Oh good, I thought I was the only one.
I like to make a list (usually 1 or 2 in each league) of the teams that will be overrated and go against them EVERY DAY for the 1st month. Also like to go with teams I think will be underrated for the 1st month.
I also like to list the pitchers that I think will either have bounce back years or "come back to earth" seasons(like a Matt Clement on the Cubs)
And I like to list the pitchers that just plain SUCK! They are everywhere. James Baldwin,Jeff Weaver...those type of guys.
I think we can all say that! But we've probably been right some, too (hopefully). But sharing ideas is only good if you check out the tips yourself, then draw your own conclusions. I like hearing you say you think the Phillies will be over-rated, because that will make me take extra-careful looks at them. It's not a band-wagon opinion, and that is helpful.
i'll tell you what i'm gonna do this year...go against kerry wood every time. you'll get +150 to +220 depending on who they play and the cubs are one team that is overrated for sure. and, the most overrated guy on the cubs...kerry wood.
he is a .500 pitcher who throws a ton of pitches and has back problems. yeah, he will have the occasional game were he stikes out 13 guys and gives up 2 hits but, he will also have plenty of games where its the middle of the 4th and he has 90 pitches, guys on in every inning, score is 4-2 against him. he gets pulled in the 5th and loses 6-3.
p.s.
i like the phillies to win the n.l.
p.s.s.
i have been wrong before too
he is a .500 pitcher who throws a ton of pitches and has back problems. yeah, he will have the occasional game were he stikes out 13 guys and gives up 2 hits but, he will also have plenty of games where its the middle of the 4th and he has 90 pitches, guys on in every inning, score is 4-2 against him. he gets pulled in the 5th and loses 6-3.
p.s.
i like the phillies to win the n.l.
p.s.s.
i have been wrong before too
See, I like that. I might have feared going against Wood more before your post. Now I'll take a closer look.
Appears we have several Twins at the end of their contracts - Jones, Milton, Radke to name a few. I'm looking for big seasons from them, because they have it in them. And the lure of $$ from other teams has to have them tuned up.
(Disclaimer here, too!!)
Appears we have several Twins at the end of their contracts - Jones, Milton, Radke to name a few. I'm looking for big seasons from them, because they have it in them. And the lure of $$ from other teams has to have them tuned up.
(Disclaimer here, too!!)
