Who Will Be The Most Profitable Team Of The Year....?

ExpertPicks · Feb 17, 2004

Who Will Be The Most Profitable Team Of The Year....?

Here are the approximate season unit totals from last year. Notice that Florida was actually the highest in net units won last year....

TEAM W/L Net Units
----------------------------------------------------
ANAHEIM 77-85 -21.6
ARIZONA 84-78 -24
ATLANTA 103-64 +16.1
BALTIMORE 71-91 -7.9
BOSTON 101-73 -6.8
CHI WHITE SOX 86-76 -16.1
CHICAGO CUBS 94-80 -15
CINCINNATI 69-93 -4.4
CLEVELAND 68-94 -22.7
COLORADO 74-88 -14.8
DETROIT 43-119 -49.8
FLORIDA 101-77 +23.1
HOUSTON 87-75 -9.5
KANSAS CITY 83-79 +9.9
LOS ANGELES 85-77 -10.2
MILWAUKEE 68-93 -4
MINNESOTA 91-75 +4.6
MONTREAL 83-79 +2.9
NY METS 66-95 -18.2
NY YANKEES 110-68 -3
OAKLAND 98-69 -2.5
PHILADELPHIA 86-76 -14.6
PITTSBURGH 75-87 -2.8
SAN DIEGO 64-98 -18
SAN FRANCISCO 100-64 +18.7
SEATTLE 93-69 -9.9
ST LOUIS 85-77 -14.4
TAMPA BAY 63-99 -10.6
TEXAS 71-91 -7.2
TORONTO 86-76 -0.2

So.... Who is it going to be this year. The tams that win the most units durring the year are generally the unexpectedly good team, or the team the public hates even when they are doing well.

As you can see from these records last year, knowing the most profitable teams and least profitable teams to bet on can be a HUGE advantage in your picks.

I would like to hear from some of you about your thoughts, and reasons for them.

GreenDoberman · Feb 17, 2004

Tampa Bay or Detroit.

Tampa has made many upgrades in talent, and the youngsters are starting to mature. They will be getting HUGE dog numbers against NYY and BOS and if they win 1 of even 4 will break even or make money against those numbers.

Detroit is a value play. They will start off with massive + numbers as well. Young pitchers with a proven game manager at catcher, Pudge, will translate to 20 more wins. Their division is mediocre and 20 wins at +300 = +60 units. -49.9 last year, plus 60, gives us a +10.1 for this year.

FairWarning · Feb 17, 2004

NL - Mets, Reds (both teams coming off lots of injuries)

AL - Blue Jays (some great pitching upgrades), Royals (they will never be a big fav).

Worst teams - LA, Houston, ChiSox, SF

ExpertPicks · Feb 17, 2004

GreenDoberman: Interesting thoughts there....

I like this.... This is some good information, keep it rolling. I'm interested to hear of peoples success/experiences with tracking a team all season.

blueedwards · Feb 17, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by Expert Picks:
DETROIT 43-119 -49.8
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

wow.

ExpertPicks · Feb 17, 2004

blue edwards: Agreed!

Does Anyone have recods from last year on the profit gained by betting against Detroit in every game?

I looked bak at my records and, damn! I bet against them a lot. Though I also took them in some close dog wins, usually when they were +1.5 point underdog.

pja101 · Feb 17, 2004

The most profitable team of the year will be....

THE YANKEES! Betting against them, of course. I can't wait to see how inflated their lines will be this year.

ExpertPicks · Feb 17, 2004

pja101: That's actually what got me thinking about this.

Mr NJ Sports · Feb 18, 2004

I agree with the Toronto pick. Going against the Red Sox and phillies will also be good for the wallet. There is no way all those Red Sox have career years again, and just because the Phillies got Billy friggin Wagner they are a great team? Has Billy Wagner ever done anything close to a good job in a big spot?

I think Seattle is gonna be really good. Not sure what their lines will be like but they have a solid club.

blueedwards · Feb 18, 2004

nj, disagree on the phillies...i think wagner is the man and i think burell and abreu bounce back and have big years. i agree with you on the mariners though. you can get ov 88 season wins right now...i think that's a good bet.

blueedwards · Feb 18, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by Expert Picks:
Who Will Be The Most Profitable Team Of The Year....?

Here are the approximate season unit totals from last year. Notice that Florida was actually the highest in net units won last year....

TEAM W/L Net Units
----------------------------------------------------
ANAHEIM 77-85 -21.6
ARIZONA 84-78 -24
ATLANTA 103-64 +16.1
BALTIMORE 71-91 -7.9
BOSTON 101-73 -6.8
CHI WHITE SOX 86-76 -16.1
CHICAGO CUBS 94-80 -15
CINCINNATI 69-93 -4.4
CLEVELAND 68-94 -22.7
COLORADO 74-88 -14.8
DETROIT 43-119 -49.8
FLORIDA 101-77 +23.1
HOUSTON 87-75 -9.5
KANSAS CITY 83-79 +9.9
LOS ANGELES 85-77 -10.2
MILWAUKEE 68-93 -4
MINNESOTA 91-75 +4.6
MONTREAL 83-79 +2.9
NY METS 66-95 -18.2
NY YANKEES 110-68 -3
OAKLAND 98-69 -2.5
PHILADELPHIA 86-76 -14.6
PITTSBURGH 75-87 -2.8
SAN DIEGO 64-98 -18
SAN FRANCISCO 100-64 +18.7
SEATTLE 93-69 -9.9
ST LOUIS 85-77 -14.4
TAMPA BAY 63-99 -10.6
TEXAS 71-91 -7.2
TORONTO 86-76 -0.2<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

is it just me or do the losers on this list outnumber the winners 5-1? is that possible?

GreenDoberman · Feb 18, 2004

of course its possible, its called juice.

ExpertPicks · Feb 18, 2004

Yep... Definately juice!

*(Keep in mind that these stats vary based on the odds on which they were calculated. So at some books the same stats would have slightly differnent unit outcomes.)

This gives some basis for what I was saying above.

In MLB I look for loosers to bet against rather than winners to bet for.

Last year I got some pretty good value betting against Detroit when they played at home. Even at the end of the season.

It was like the books were saying (and public believing) that detroit just might actually win a few, and no better place than at home... right?? I banked on betting against them. In fact when I looked back briefely at my records, I rarely seemed to miss when I went against them.

So it seems like betting against the worst teams every time is smarter than betting for the favorites every single time.

barman · Feb 18, 2004

Go to http://www.covers.com/data/mlb/statistics/teamMoneyStandings.html

It shows money standings for past five years, based on base wager of 100.

In answer to the Topic here, we think Tampa Bay will be the best money team in at least the first half of the season.

We think they will make solid push for a 40-40 first half and they should be getting solid plus money in at least 80% of their games.

The best Fade is definitely the NY Yankees.

Yankees past five years: -300, -1202, +165, -2150, -1221

At home they are best Fade going past five years.

Lots of interesting angles within that same site...Hit the STANDINGS button to see the variety of ways you can study money results

boltgirl · Feb 19, 2004

take a close look at san diego. with all thier new players they could score 800+ runs.RG

FairWarning · Feb 23, 2004

I don't know about the Phillies new park but SD's will be a big-time pitchers park, like SF. I don't expect many HR's there.

About Wagner - usually when a stud RP comes on the market like that, there is a reason. I remember Billy Koch last year and he had a dead arm. Usually it is too good to be true so beware Philly fans.

Mr NJ Sports · Feb 23, 2004

Every time I have seen Wagner in a big spot he is awful. Against chipper in game 1 a few years ago. He gave up a game ending slam to Junior Griffey in what I thought was a big spot.
Same thing with Foulke. The Red Sox beat his brains in to win game 4 of their series last year and then they go out and sign him?

Obviously a closer isnt the determining factor in whether or not you will place a bet but they can cost you a few.

blueedwards · Feb 23, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by FairWarning:
About Wagner - usually when a stud RP comes on the market like that, there is a reason. I remember Billy Koch last year and he had a dead arm. Usually it is too good to be true so beware Philly fans.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

disagree here. billy koch sucked before he came to chicago. yes, he was horrible last year but, he sucked in oakland. i am not talking about the number of saves he had, i am talking about whip. whip is how you measure how effective a pitcher is.

wagner's whip is in the top 5 in baseball and has been for years. i think he'll be awesome this year. houston let him go because they didn't want to pay him and they have a guy who is also in the top 5...dotel.

FairWarning · Feb 23, 2004

Houston is really taking a chance on Dotel being their closer. Lidge might have been a better choice. Doesn't matter, they are both unproven.

I think the White Sox are hoping that Koch can have a good start so they can get out from under his contract.

heart222 · Feb 23, 2004

Hi I used the covers site and noticed the last 2 years mtl and col at home and against them on the road. also against whitesox on road and det on road. all have 2 year history. also la under and mabey sand with new park? Note yank were losers at home but weinners on road. i think redsox will be good bet against on road cant imagine all career years. how about balt no pitching and yanks big hitting overs most of time?