WinOnBaseball - Monday Report - 04/05/04
-- NEXT UPDATE will be posted before 6:00am Pacific on TUESDAY, April 6.
Season record: 0-0
PREFACE: Thank you for your interest in WinOnBaseball. Please visit our About Us page to review my handicapping philosophy. As explained on the page, one factor in my handicapping involves an extensive analysis of the pitching/batting matchup. Part of my analysis involves studying the critical pitching statistics of Control Rate, HR Rate, Dominance Rate, and Command Ratio, among others, which do not show up in traditional box scores. Rather than expound on these individual stats in my write-ups, I will often refer to them collectively as a pitcher’s “skill set.” You can rest assured that this analysis is performed on every game, even though I may not specifically refer to them.
All lines from Pinnacle Sports, effective as of 4/5/2004, 12:44:26 AM - PST. Listed pitchers must start.
UNDER 8.5 CHC (WOOD)/CIN (LIDLE) +108 - 1 UNIT
Spring training results should normally be taken with a grain of salt. It’s hard to ignore Wood’s spring numbers, however: 5-0, 1.05 ERA, 25/9 K/BB ratio. His curveball has been smooth, and looks to be in mid-season form. Last year against Cincinnati, Wood’s critical skill set of Control Rate, HR Rate, Dominance Rate, and Command Ratio were significantly above both the league average and Wood’s own average. This translated into the more traditional stats of: 3-0 W/L, 2.31 ERA, and .171 BAA. Add in the following factors, and Wood looks set to pitch a stellar game against the Reds: Wood pitched better on the road last year; he will probably pitch deep into the game, due to Dusty Baker’s slow hook; he’s got a terrific pen backing him up; he will be facing a more or less righty dominated lineup. I don’t expect Wood to give up much, if anything at all, against the Reds.
My thinking is that the only way this game will go over is if Lidle and the rest of the staff has a melt down. Lidle’s numbers last year were not very impressive. Closer examination, however, can help excuse him of his poor performance. His command and control rates were very good in the first half, before taking a nosedive in the second half. His first half ERA of 5.34 was not impressive, but that ERA was a result of bad luck. His inordinately low strand rate cost him some runs, and he should have ended up with an ERA somewhere in the 4’s. In the second half, he was battling groin problems, which resulted in his second half skill set to be out of line with his previous 3-year track record. His groundball tendencies should keep the ball in the park. If Wood holds his end of the bargain, this game should go under, because I think Lidle has a good chance to hold his own.
UNDER 8.5 PHI (MILLWOOD)/PIT (WELLS) -117 - 1 UNIT
Millwood had some ugly spring numbers, but he was experimenting with some pitches, which explains the poor performance. Four of his HR allowed came in one outing, and his last two starts were his best of the spring. He’ll be facing a very unimpressive Pittsburgh lineup, as their best hitters were traded away at the end of last year. He doesn’t have much of a history against their hitters, but I don’t see them doing much against Millwood today. With Billy Wagner replacing Jose Mesa as closer, the Philly bullpen should be much improved.
Wells also had bad spring numbers, but he is very underrated, and I’m not concerned. Last year, Wells was spectacular at home. His 2.12 home ERA led the NL; his home BAA, WHIP and OPS was .211, 1.11, and .594; and he finished the year strong, with a 1.33 ERA in his last four starts. A groundball pitcher like him will miss Pokey Reese behind him, but he has enough good stuff to keep a quality lineup like Philly’s quiet. Mesa in the bullpen is a scary thing, but I anticipate a nice duel with Millwood and Wells to occupy most of the game.
LA (NOMO) –110 over SD (Lawrence) – 1 UNIT
Yes, I know that in 17 games against the Dodgers, Lawrence is 7-3 with a 1.95 ERA. Yes, I know that in most cases, spring numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. This spring, Lawrence has a 10.64 ERA, with 49 hits allowed in 22 IP. Small sample or not, these numbers are so bad that you have to wonder if something is wrong with him. Peter Gammons has reported that Lawrence only reached the low 80s mph in his first two starts. This is coming off a season in which his K/9 suffered a dramatic decrease. His decrease in dominance combined with a higher ratio of fly balls is not a good sign. In the second half of last year, he posted a better ERA than the first half, but his skill set actually declined; the decrease in ERA can be attributed mostly to luck. These trends, combined with his early troubles and velocity concerns could mean a nice opportunity for even the lowly Dodger offense.
Nomo has also struggled mightily during the spring also. He has not had a stellar career against the Padres, but in 43.1 IP in day games last year, Nomo had a 0.83 ERA, .156 BAA, and a tremendous HR rate. I’m not sold on Nomo this year, but I think the Dodgers can have some success against Lawrence today. The Dodgers figure to have an excellent pen again, with Gagne and Mota leading the way, which eases some of my concerns about Nomo.
CHW (BUEHRLE) –113 over KC (Anderson) – 1 UNIT
Buehrle made a conscious attempt to cut down on his walks during the spring. Mission accomplished, as he walked just one in 26 IP. He has had decent success at Kauffman Stadium over the last 3 years. Because the Sox have a righty dominated lineup, you would expect them to feast on left-handed pitching. However, that hasn’t been the case the last few years. Last year, they experienced only a 2.7% advantage in BA against lefties. Sooner or later, this will have to give, and I like them against Anderson in this spot.
Anderson gives up a ton of fly balls, and Kauffman Stadium is an extreme hitter’s park. That is not a good combo for this environment. Last year, the KC staff, composed of mostly lefty flyball pitchers, had a 6.02 ERA at home, compared to a 4.08 ERA away from home. Anderson had a 6.53 ERA and .298 BAA at Kaufman. His HR rate there was well above both the league average and his own average. His control rate looks very good on the surface, but is misleading because batters don’t look to take walks against him, since he isn’t going to overpower anyone. In part to address the tendencies of the starting rotation, KC has moved the fences back, which should help some, but I think Anderson’s success last year was based on smoke and mirrors, and he should revert back to his mediocre career numbers. KC’s bullpen was the worst in the majors last year, and while they should improve in that area this year, it’s still not an area of strength.
CLE (SABATHIA) +127 over Min (Radke) – 1 UNIT
The Minnesota lineup struggles against left-handed pitching. Last year, they hit .255 against lefties and .287 against righties; 2002: .252 against lefties, .282 against righties; 2001: .257 against lefties, .277 against righties. I have also translated the BAs into other sabermetric stats, which resulted in the same conclusion. Sabathia had great success against the Twins last year, posting a 1.99 ERA against them, including a 1.69 ERA at the Metrodome.
Radke had a 5.52 ERA at home, but he did exhibit excellent control and command. However, for soft toss pitchers like him, a lack of dominance rate (K/9) can offset the benefits of good command and control. He’s following the same pattern this spring: not walking anyone, but giving up runs. Minnesota’s bullpen figures to be worse this year with the loss of Guardado and Hawkins. Cleveland’s lineup is far from intimidating, but I feel that pitching will get them a win here.
PLEASE NOTE: All wagers are recommended for a "base" unit. Thus a side for 1 UNIT at -110 should be considered risking 1.10 UNITS to win 1.00 UNITS, while a team at +110 should be considered risking 1.00 UNITS to win 1.10 UNITS.
Do not hesitate to contact us with any questions or comments.
Good luck,
Edward (Sales & Marketing)
Richard (Handicapping)
-- NEXT UPDATE will be posted before 6:00am Pacific on TUESDAY, April 6.
Season record: 0-0
PREFACE: Thank you for your interest in WinOnBaseball. Please visit our About Us page to review my handicapping philosophy. As explained on the page, one factor in my handicapping involves an extensive analysis of the pitching/batting matchup. Part of my analysis involves studying the critical pitching statistics of Control Rate, HR Rate, Dominance Rate, and Command Ratio, among others, which do not show up in traditional box scores. Rather than expound on these individual stats in my write-ups, I will often refer to them collectively as a pitcher’s “skill set.” You can rest assured that this analysis is performed on every game, even though I may not specifically refer to them.
All lines from Pinnacle Sports, effective as of 4/5/2004, 12:44:26 AM - PST. Listed pitchers must start.
UNDER 8.5 CHC (WOOD)/CIN (LIDLE) +108 - 1 UNIT
Spring training results should normally be taken with a grain of salt. It’s hard to ignore Wood’s spring numbers, however: 5-0, 1.05 ERA, 25/9 K/BB ratio. His curveball has been smooth, and looks to be in mid-season form. Last year against Cincinnati, Wood’s critical skill set of Control Rate, HR Rate, Dominance Rate, and Command Ratio were significantly above both the league average and Wood’s own average. This translated into the more traditional stats of: 3-0 W/L, 2.31 ERA, and .171 BAA. Add in the following factors, and Wood looks set to pitch a stellar game against the Reds: Wood pitched better on the road last year; he will probably pitch deep into the game, due to Dusty Baker’s slow hook; he’s got a terrific pen backing him up; he will be facing a more or less righty dominated lineup. I don’t expect Wood to give up much, if anything at all, against the Reds.
My thinking is that the only way this game will go over is if Lidle and the rest of the staff has a melt down. Lidle’s numbers last year were not very impressive. Closer examination, however, can help excuse him of his poor performance. His command and control rates were very good in the first half, before taking a nosedive in the second half. His first half ERA of 5.34 was not impressive, but that ERA was a result of bad luck. His inordinately low strand rate cost him some runs, and he should have ended up with an ERA somewhere in the 4’s. In the second half, he was battling groin problems, which resulted in his second half skill set to be out of line with his previous 3-year track record. His groundball tendencies should keep the ball in the park. If Wood holds his end of the bargain, this game should go under, because I think Lidle has a good chance to hold his own.
UNDER 8.5 PHI (MILLWOOD)/PIT (WELLS) -117 - 1 UNIT
Millwood had some ugly spring numbers, but he was experimenting with some pitches, which explains the poor performance. Four of his HR allowed came in one outing, and his last two starts were his best of the spring. He’ll be facing a very unimpressive Pittsburgh lineup, as their best hitters were traded away at the end of last year. He doesn’t have much of a history against their hitters, but I don’t see them doing much against Millwood today. With Billy Wagner replacing Jose Mesa as closer, the Philly bullpen should be much improved.
Wells also had bad spring numbers, but he is very underrated, and I’m not concerned. Last year, Wells was spectacular at home. His 2.12 home ERA led the NL; his home BAA, WHIP and OPS was .211, 1.11, and .594; and he finished the year strong, with a 1.33 ERA in his last four starts. A groundball pitcher like him will miss Pokey Reese behind him, but he has enough good stuff to keep a quality lineup like Philly’s quiet. Mesa in the bullpen is a scary thing, but I anticipate a nice duel with Millwood and Wells to occupy most of the game.
LA (NOMO) –110 over SD (Lawrence) – 1 UNIT
Yes, I know that in 17 games against the Dodgers, Lawrence is 7-3 with a 1.95 ERA. Yes, I know that in most cases, spring numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. This spring, Lawrence has a 10.64 ERA, with 49 hits allowed in 22 IP. Small sample or not, these numbers are so bad that you have to wonder if something is wrong with him. Peter Gammons has reported that Lawrence only reached the low 80s mph in his first two starts. This is coming off a season in which his K/9 suffered a dramatic decrease. His decrease in dominance combined with a higher ratio of fly balls is not a good sign. In the second half of last year, he posted a better ERA than the first half, but his skill set actually declined; the decrease in ERA can be attributed mostly to luck. These trends, combined with his early troubles and velocity concerns could mean a nice opportunity for even the lowly Dodger offense.
Nomo has also struggled mightily during the spring also. He has not had a stellar career against the Padres, but in 43.1 IP in day games last year, Nomo had a 0.83 ERA, .156 BAA, and a tremendous HR rate. I’m not sold on Nomo this year, but I think the Dodgers can have some success against Lawrence today. The Dodgers figure to have an excellent pen again, with Gagne and Mota leading the way, which eases some of my concerns about Nomo.
CHW (BUEHRLE) –113 over KC (Anderson) – 1 UNIT
Buehrle made a conscious attempt to cut down on his walks during the spring. Mission accomplished, as he walked just one in 26 IP. He has had decent success at Kauffman Stadium over the last 3 years. Because the Sox have a righty dominated lineup, you would expect them to feast on left-handed pitching. However, that hasn’t been the case the last few years. Last year, they experienced only a 2.7% advantage in BA against lefties. Sooner or later, this will have to give, and I like them against Anderson in this spot.
Anderson gives up a ton of fly balls, and Kauffman Stadium is an extreme hitter’s park. That is not a good combo for this environment. Last year, the KC staff, composed of mostly lefty flyball pitchers, had a 6.02 ERA at home, compared to a 4.08 ERA away from home. Anderson had a 6.53 ERA and .298 BAA at Kaufman. His HR rate there was well above both the league average and his own average. His control rate looks very good on the surface, but is misleading because batters don’t look to take walks against him, since he isn’t going to overpower anyone. In part to address the tendencies of the starting rotation, KC has moved the fences back, which should help some, but I think Anderson’s success last year was based on smoke and mirrors, and he should revert back to his mediocre career numbers. KC’s bullpen was the worst in the majors last year, and while they should improve in that area this year, it’s still not an area of strength.
CLE (SABATHIA) +127 over Min (Radke) – 1 UNIT
The Minnesota lineup struggles against left-handed pitching. Last year, they hit .255 against lefties and .287 against righties; 2002: .252 against lefties, .282 against righties; 2001: .257 against lefties, .277 against righties. I have also translated the BAs into other sabermetric stats, which resulted in the same conclusion. Sabathia had great success against the Twins last year, posting a 1.99 ERA against them, including a 1.69 ERA at the Metrodome.
Radke had a 5.52 ERA at home, but he did exhibit excellent control and command. However, for soft toss pitchers like him, a lack of dominance rate (K/9) can offset the benefits of good command and control. He’s following the same pattern this spring: not walking anyone, but giving up runs. Minnesota’s bullpen figures to be worse this year with the loss of Guardado and Hawkins. Cleveland’s lineup is far from intimidating, but I feel that pitching will get them a win here.
PLEASE NOTE: All wagers are recommended for a "base" unit. Thus a side for 1 UNIT at -110 should be considered risking 1.10 UNITS to win 1.00 UNITS, while a team at +110 should be considered risking 1.00 UNITS to win 1.10 UNITS.
Do not hesitate to contact us with any questions or comments.
Good luck,
Edward (Sales & Marketing)
Richard (Handicapping)
