WinOnBaseball - Tuesday Report - 04/06/04
-- NEXT UPDATE will be posted before 6:00am Pacific on WEDNESDAY, April 7.
Season record: 1-4 -3.23 UNITS
PREFACE: Please visit our About Us page to review my handicapping philosophy. As explained on the page, one factor in my handicapping involves an extensive analysis of the pitching/batting matchup. Part of my analysis involves studying the critical pitching statistics of Control Rate, HR Rate, Dominance Rate, and Command Ratio, among others, which do not show up in traditional box scores. Rather than expound on these individual stats in my write-ups, I will often refer to them collectively as a pitcher’s “skill set.” You can rest assured that this analysis is performed on every game, even though I may not specifically refer to them.
All lines from Pinnacle Sports, effective as of 4/6/2004, 11:25:34 PM - PST. Listed pitchers must start.
Three plays for Tuesday:
ATL (ORTIZ) -157 over NYM (Glavine) - 1 UNIT
Ortiz posted some stellar numbers at Turner Field last year: 3.54 ERA, .202 BAA, with a very good HR rate (important considering he likes to work up in the zone). His numbers weren't as good against the Mets, but I still think it's a good matchup for him. The Mets power comes mainly from the right side (except for Floyd), and his BA/OBP/OPS against righties last year were .187/.272/.304. Since Ortiz does walk a lot of batters, limiting HRs are especially key for him. Right handed hitters have been at a slight disadvantage when hitting HRs at Turner Field. Piazza has hit Ortiz well, but the sample size is small (16 ABs), and he has historically struggled against Ortiz-type pitchers. Floyd is the other hitter to be feared in this lineup, and he has hit Ortiz well in only 22 ABs.
Glavine's troubles against his former team has been well publicized. He posted some terrible numbers against them last year, and especially at Turner Field where he had a 15.26 ERA. Even when you subtract Sheffield and Javy Lopez, the numbers aren't good. He's not getting any better, and a shaky bullpen won't help.
UNDER 7.5 SD (PEAVY)/LA (PEREZ) -111 - 1 UNIT
Perez did not fare very well at all against the Padres last year. But that was in only two starts, both of which were in San Diego. At Dodger Stadium, he's a much better pitcher, boasting a much better HR rate, control rate, dominance rate, and command ratio.
Peavy, like Perez, has had a great spring. He had success against the Dodgers last year, and it should continue, as his dominance rate and command ratio have been very good against them.
UNDER 7.5 ANA (COLON)/SEA (MOYER) +117 - 1 UNIT
Moyer has mastered the Angels. Last year, in 43 IP, he had a 1.67 ERA, .226 BAA, and displayed an excellent skill set against them. If you look at the last three years, the numbers still come out pretty similar. Of course, that was without Vladimir and Jose Guillen in the lineup, but his numbers were dominant enough to make me comfortable. Scioscia said he'll probably sit Guillen in this one.
Colon also looked dominating at Safeco last year, although the sample size is much smaller. Safeco Field is accommodating for his flyball tendencies. An excellent pen should pick up when he leaves the game.
PLEASE NOTE: All wagers are recommended for a "base" unit. Thus a side for 1 UNIT at -110 should be considered risking 1.10 UNITS to win 1.00 UNITS, while a team at +110 should be considered risking 1.00 UNITS to win 1.10 UNITS.
Do not hesitate to contact us with any questions or comments.
Good luck,
Edward (Sales & Marketing)
Richard (Handicapping)
-- NEXT UPDATE will be posted before 6:00am Pacific on WEDNESDAY, April 7.
Season record: 1-4 -3.23 UNITS
PREFACE: Please visit our About Us page to review my handicapping philosophy. As explained on the page, one factor in my handicapping involves an extensive analysis of the pitching/batting matchup. Part of my analysis involves studying the critical pitching statistics of Control Rate, HR Rate, Dominance Rate, and Command Ratio, among others, which do not show up in traditional box scores. Rather than expound on these individual stats in my write-ups, I will often refer to them collectively as a pitcher’s “skill set.” You can rest assured that this analysis is performed on every game, even though I may not specifically refer to them.
All lines from Pinnacle Sports, effective as of 4/6/2004, 11:25:34 PM - PST. Listed pitchers must start.
Three plays for Tuesday:
ATL (ORTIZ) -157 over NYM (Glavine) - 1 UNIT
Ortiz posted some stellar numbers at Turner Field last year: 3.54 ERA, .202 BAA, with a very good HR rate (important considering he likes to work up in the zone). His numbers weren't as good against the Mets, but I still think it's a good matchup for him. The Mets power comes mainly from the right side (except for Floyd), and his BA/OBP/OPS against righties last year were .187/.272/.304. Since Ortiz does walk a lot of batters, limiting HRs are especially key for him. Right handed hitters have been at a slight disadvantage when hitting HRs at Turner Field. Piazza has hit Ortiz well, but the sample size is small (16 ABs), and he has historically struggled against Ortiz-type pitchers. Floyd is the other hitter to be feared in this lineup, and he has hit Ortiz well in only 22 ABs.
Glavine's troubles against his former team has been well publicized. He posted some terrible numbers against them last year, and especially at Turner Field where he had a 15.26 ERA. Even when you subtract Sheffield and Javy Lopez, the numbers aren't good. He's not getting any better, and a shaky bullpen won't help.
UNDER 7.5 SD (PEAVY)/LA (PEREZ) -111 - 1 UNIT
Perez did not fare very well at all against the Padres last year. But that was in only two starts, both of which were in San Diego. At Dodger Stadium, he's a much better pitcher, boasting a much better HR rate, control rate, dominance rate, and command ratio.
Peavy, like Perez, has had a great spring. He had success against the Dodgers last year, and it should continue, as his dominance rate and command ratio have been very good against them.
UNDER 7.5 ANA (COLON)/SEA (MOYER) +117 - 1 UNIT
Moyer has mastered the Angels. Last year, in 43 IP, he had a 1.67 ERA, .226 BAA, and displayed an excellent skill set against them. If you look at the last three years, the numbers still come out pretty similar. Of course, that was without Vladimir and Jose Guillen in the lineup, but his numbers were dominant enough to make me comfortable. Scioscia said he'll probably sit Guillen in this one.
Colon also looked dominating at Safeco last year, although the sample size is much smaller. Safeco Field is accommodating for his flyball tendencies. An excellent pen should pick up when he leaves the game.
PLEASE NOTE: All wagers are recommended for a "base" unit. Thus a side for 1 UNIT at -110 should be considered risking 1.10 UNITS to win 1.00 UNITS, while a team at +110 should be considered risking 1.00 UNITS to win 1.10 UNITS.
Do not hesitate to contact us with any questions or comments.
Good luck,
Edward (Sales & Marketing)
Richard (Handicapping)
