WinOnBaseball - Wednesday Report - 04/07/04
-- NEXT UPDATE will be posted before 6:00am Pacific on THURSDAY, April 8.
Season record: 1-7 -6.91 UNITS
PREFACE: One factor in my handicapping involves an extensive analysis of the pitching/batting matchup. Part of my analysis involves studying the critical pitching statistics of Control Rate, HR Rate, Dominance Rate, and Command Ratio, among others, which do not show up in traditional box scores. Rather than expound on these individual stats in my write-ups, I will often refer to them collectively as a pitcher?s ?skill set.? You can rest assured that this analysis is performed on every game, even though I may not specifically refer to them.
All lines effective as of 4/7/2004, 11:55:02 PM - PST. Listed pitchers must start.
Six plays for Wednesday:
FLA (PENNY) -164 over Mon (Vargas) - 1 UNIT - 4:05pm Pacific
Penny really shined in 4 starts against Montreal last year. His skill set was excellent against them, and he's pitching at home, where he's much better. He pitched well during spring training, even while developing a new pitch (changeup), which by all accounts has been very good.
Vargas faced Florida 3 times last year, with a 8.10 ERA and .357 BAA against them. Vargas cooled off big time during the second half last year, which
probably is a better reflection of his skills. Florida's bullpen isn't the greatest, but I'm willing to lay the big number because I think Penny can really put in at least 6 very strong innings, with the offense scoring enough so that the pen won't factor in.
SD (EATON) -118 over LA (Weaver) - 1 UNIT - 7:10pm Pacific
Like the rest of the Padres, Eaton has really feasted ont he Dodgers. Last year, in 4 games against them, he had a 1.75 ERA and .230 BAA. Two of those starts came at Dodger Stadium, where he had a 0.75 ERA. His skill set fully backs up those numbers, also. His numbers over the last 3 years against them are very similar. Weaver should be a little better in LA, but a bad spring isn't encouraging, especially when he needed positive results for his own confidence.
CHW (LOAIZA) -114 over KC (May) - 2 UNITS - 11:10am Pacific
Loaiza's skill set remained steady in the second half of last year, which should mean that his performance wasn't a fluke. He was able to see a lot of KC last year. In 5 games and 32.1 IP against them, he had a 2.71 ERA and .236 BAA, without giving up a single HR. His skill set was equally as impressive, and his numbers at Kauffman were even better. Chicago's bullpen showed their ineptitude on Monday, giving up 6 runs in the bottom of the ninth, but I think Loaiza can get deep in this one and continue his
dominance against them.
May did not fare well against the Sox last year. In 21.1 IP against them, he had a 6.75 ERA and .284 BAA. Equally important has his weak HR rate (he let 7 out of the yard). As I documented on Monday, this type of pitcher (flyballer) does not perform well at Kauffman Stadium. The stadium was right behind Coors in terms of runs scored, and a righty-dominated lineup that can mash the ball doesn't provide for a good matchup for May. Their bullpen was the worst in the league last year, which is gravy.
BAL (AINSWORTH) +166 over Bos (Lowe) - 1 UNIT - 4:05pm Pacific
Both pitchers had excellent springs, but Ainsworth is the better of the two. This line seems to reflect his fluky 2002 season, so I think it's great value. He posted a good ERA against Baltimore last year, but his skill set agaisnt them was bad. Also, they've added some notable bats to the lineup. Lowe was horrible on the road last season, with a 6.11 ERA and .332 BAA, to go along with a bad skill set.
OVER 9 CLE (LEE)/MIN (LOHSE) -117 - 1 UNIT - 5:10pm Pacific
Two consecutive extra inning games (11 innings and 15 innings) have put a major strain on the bullpens for both teams. That would mean that Cleveland would like to see Lee eat up some innings, but he lacks control and will probably throw a lot of pitches. He also likes to get the strikeout, which also means more pitches and hopefully a move to the tired pen before long. I actually think a pitcher like Lee matches up well against Minnesota (because he's a lefty who keeps the ball high), but the control problems combined with the heavily used pen led me to take the over instead.
SEA (PINEIRO) -115 over Ana (Washburn) - 1 UNIT - 7:05pm Pacific
The Seattle hitters have given Washburn fits througout his career. He did have a great performance in his only start at Safeco last year, but I think his career numbers against their lineup is more indicative of how he'll perform today. Pineiro's skill set at home last year was good, and held up pretty well against the Angels, even though he had a 4.79 ERA against them. Also, Seattle hit lefties very well last year.
PLEASE NOTE: All wagers are recommended for a "base" unit. Thus a side for 1 UNIT at -110 should be considered risking 1.10 UNITS to win 1.00 UNITS, while a team at +110 should be considered risking 1.00 UNITS to win 1.10 UNITS.
Do not hesitate to contact us with any questions or comments.
Good luck,
Edward (Sales & Marketing)
Richard (Handicapping)
-- NEXT UPDATE will be posted before 6:00am Pacific on THURSDAY, April 8.
Season record: 1-7 -6.91 UNITS
PREFACE: One factor in my handicapping involves an extensive analysis of the pitching/batting matchup. Part of my analysis involves studying the critical pitching statistics of Control Rate, HR Rate, Dominance Rate, and Command Ratio, among others, which do not show up in traditional box scores. Rather than expound on these individual stats in my write-ups, I will often refer to them collectively as a pitcher?s ?skill set.? You can rest assured that this analysis is performed on every game, even though I may not specifically refer to them.
All lines effective as of 4/7/2004, 11:55:02 PM - PST. Listed pitchers must start.
Six plays for Wednesday:
FLA (PENNY) -164 over Mon (Vargas) - 1 UNIT - 4:05pm Pacific
Penny really shined in 4 starts against Montreal last year. His skill set was excellent against them, and he's pitching at home, where he's much better. He pitched well during spring training, even while developing a new pitch (changeup), which by all accounts has been very good.
Vargas faced Florida 3 times last year, with a 8.10 ERA and .357 BAA against them. Vargas cooled off big time during the second half last year, which
probably is a better reflection of his skills. Florida's bullpen isn't the greatest, but I'm willing to lay the big number because I think Penny can really put in at least 6 very strong innings, with the offense scoring enough so that the pen won't factor in.
SD (EATON) -118 over LA (Weaver) - 1 UNIT - 7:10pm Pacific
Like the rest of the Padres, Eaton has really feasted ont he Dodgers. Last year, in 4 games against them, he had a 1.75 ERA and .230 BAA. Two of those starts came at Dodger Stadium, where he had a 0.75 ERA. His skill set fully backs up those numbers, also. His numbers over the last 3 years against them are very similar. Weaver should be a little better in LA, but a bad spring isn't encouraging, especially when he needed positive results for his own confidence.
CHW (LOAIZA) -114 over KC (May) - 2 UNITS - 11:10am Pacific
Loaiza's skill set remained steady in the second half of last year, which should mean that his performance wasn't a fluke. He was able to see a lot of KC last year. In 5 games and 32.1 IP against them, he had a 2.71 ERA and .236 BAA, without giving up a single HR. His skill set was equally as impressive, and his numbers at Kauffman were even better. Chicago's bullpen showed their ineptitude on Monday, giving up 6 runs in the bottom of the ninth, but I think Loaiza can get deep in this one and continue his
dominance against them.
May did not fare well against the Sox last year. In 21.1 IP against them, he had a 6.75 ERA and .284 BAA. Equally important has his weak HR rate (he let 7 out of the yard). As I documented on Monday, this type of pitcher (flyballer) does not perform well at Kauffman Stadium. The stadium was right behind Coors in terms of runs scored, and a righty-dominated lineup that can mash the ball doesn't provide for a good matchup for May. Their bullpen was the worst in the league last year, which is gravy.
BAL (AINSWORTH) +166 over Bos (Lowe) - 1 UNIT - 4:05pm Pacific
Both pitchers had excellent springs, but Ainsworth is the better of the two. This line seems to reflect his fluky 2002 season, so I think it's great value. He posted a good ERA against Baltimore last year, but his skill set agaisnt them was bad. Also, they've added some notable bats to the lineup. Lowe was horrible on the road last season, with a 6.11 ERA and .332 BAA, to go along with a bad skill set.
OVER 9 CLE (LEE)/MIN (LOHSE) -117 - 1 UNIT - 5:10pm Pacific
Two consecutive extra inning games (11 innings and 15 innings) have put a major strain on the bullpens for both teams. That would mean that Cleveland would like to see Lee eat up some innings, but he lacks control and will probably throw a lot of pitches. He also likes to get the strikeout, which also means more pitches and hopefully a move to the tired pen before long. I actually think a pitcher like Lee matches up well against Minnesota (because he's a lefty who keeps the ball high), but the control problems combined with the heavily used pen led me to take the over instead.
SEA (PINEIRO) -115 over Ana (Washburn) - 1 UNIT - 7:05pm Pacific
The Seattle hitters have given Washburn fits througout his career. He did have a great performance in his only start at Safeco last year, but I think his career numbers against their lineup is more indicative of how he'll perform today. Pineiro's skill set at home last year was good, and held up pretty well against the Angels, even though he had a 4.79 ERA against them. Also, Seattle hit lefties very well last year.
PLEASE NOTE: All wagers are recommended for a "base" unit. Thus a side for 1 UNIT at -110 should be considered risking 1.10 UNITS to win 1.00 UNITS, while a team at +110 should be considered risking 1.00 UNITS to win 1.10 UNITS.
Do not hesitate to contact us with any questions or comments.
Good luck,
Edward (Sales & Marketing)
Richard (Handicapping)
