guide to betting the a's this year

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hey guys....by no mean am I going to tout myself as the oakland a's expert. I just want to pass along some observations about this team and the lines. The a's are on the short end of the offensive stick this year and are stocked in the starting pitching again this year. The starting 5 is the strongest it has been on the past 5 years in my opinion. First things 1st. You will not catch the top 3 less than -200 against the lower teired teams at home this year and probably around the same number on the road against the lower tiered teams. Laying 1.5 runs with the a's will shrink your bankroll rather quickly. I see the a's in many 1 run games and their bullpen is not as strong as it has been and they may give up some late inning runs...i really think the top 3 for the a's are unbettable at home...i would not lay 2-1 with that offense and deffinatly not lay 1.5 with them either....the best bet would be to take the under with the top 3 exspecially during day games were the shadows will effect the hitters.....in general the unders at home for the a's should do generally well...the totals may even be on the high side the 1st few weeks until the lines makers can catch up with the lack of a's offense...as the season goes on and the top 3 arms build up innings the overs may be a better play..will have to re-evaluate that once we get into june/july/aug...i think the top 3 will have great value against the top tiered teams on the road...(yanks,bosox,angles, seattle) would be even better if they matched up against the top tiered teams aces and the a's were +140ish....would have no problem betting against pedro, shilling, brown, or mussina getting +140 or more on the road with one of the top 3 a's pittching....the top 3 would be a possible bet at home with the yanks, sox, angels, seattle visiting oakland....if the top 3 match up with the top2 of any of these teams we could get the a's as a small fav or small dog (depending on pitcher and current records)the numbers may be a little more to the fav with the angels and seattle coming to oakland...being a pitchers park i would take my chances with the top 3 at home against those 4 teams best pitchers...the top 3 can mow down teams..just as long as they dont rack up to many innnings and flare out late in the season...the bottom 2 pitchers are a crap shoot....harden came out on fire last year and fizzled towards the end....i really think he may be overpriced at home the 1st few times out...i rather sit back and watch what he does..will do the same with redman as he adjust to a new league...another strong lefty for the a's who had a good year with the marlins last year...i really think the value on these 2 will be on the road agaisnt the lower tiered teams as a short fav or a big dog against the higher teired teams on the road...this of course all depends on how they both start..if harden comes on 3-0 he will most likley be at the 2-1 number until he cools off...any oponions are apprecaited
in recap:
-a's unders at home during day games with the top 3 on the mound
-dont lay 1.5 runs with this team and would stay away from the top 3 at home in general until the offense starts hitting
-will watch the bottom 2 pitchers and feel them out...there could be good value with them on the road as a short fav or dog against higher tiered teams
-the top 3 should be a good bet with the yanks, soxs, seattle and angles coming to town...deffinatly if the top 3 match up with the top2-3 of the visiting teams...would be a very short fav to short dog with the yanks and sox visiting...would be around -140/150 with seattle and angels...all depends on pitcher at the time and current records
-would really look hard at the top 3 as any dog on the road agaisnt the top tiered teams..even if they face up with the other teams top 3...unders here could be solid too
 

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