Thursday Report - 04/08/04
-- NEXT UPDATE will be posted before 6:00am Pacific on FRIDAY, April 9.
Season record: 3-11 -8.88 UNITS
PREFACE: One factor in my handicapping involves an extensive analysis of the pitching/batting matchup. Part of my analysis involves studying the critucal pitching statistics of Control Rate, HR Rate, Dominance Rate, and Command Ratio, among others, which do not show up in traditional box scores. Rather than expound on these invididual stats in my write-ups, I will often refer to them collectively as a pitcher's "skill set." You can rest assured that this analysis is performed on every game, even though I may not specifically refer to them.
All lines effective as of 4/8/2004, 12:28:36 AM - PST. Listed pitchers must start.
Four plays for Thursday:
ATL (THOMSON) -156 over NYM (Erickson) - 1 UNIT - 4:35pm Pacific
Erickson hasn't pitched in two of the last three seasons, including last year, when he was out due to a torn labrum. He hasn't pitched well since 1998, and there's no reason to think he has anything good left. He is an extreme groundball pitcher, and Atlanta's lineup hits those types of pitchers well. Thomson was Texas' best pitcher last year, if that means anything. His second half was terrific, and moving out of Texas should allow him to show off his pretty good skill set. His skill set, even while in Texas was pretty good. Atlanta should be able to score on Erickson, and Thomson and his bullpen should be enough preserve the win.
OVER 9 MIN (SILVA)/DET (CORNEJO) -118 - 1 UNIT - 11:05am Pacific
Silva has been pitching in relief during the last two years. He was the worst pitcher in baseball last year at handling inherited runners. He probably does not have much stamina at this point, due to his history of being a reliever, which means, we'll probably see the bullpen early. Minnesota has played in extra innings 2 of the last 3 games, and they gave up 11 runs yesterday.
Cornejo's strikeout rate last year was the worst in 50 years. His command and dominance rates are horrible. His fastball can't crack 90 anymore, but he still pitches like a fastball pitcher. Since he doesn't strike anyone out, he puts a lot of balls in play, which leads to more runners on base. Two below average starting pitchers here, with questionable bullpens, so I anticipate the game to go over.
KC (AFFELDT) -152 over Cle (D'Amico) - 1 UNIT - 11:10am Pacific
Of all the KC's lefties, Affeldt is probably best suited for Kauffman Stadium. He has shown an ability to keep balls in the park, and his skill set is above average for this stadium. The Cleveland lineup also struggles against lefties. D'Amico is a a pretty extreme flyball pitcher, so he should have trouble here. The difference in skill sets between these two starters favors Affeldt by a sginificant margin. Neither bullpen is impressive, but I feel confident that Affeldt & Co. can pull this one out.
SEA (GARCIA) -129 over Ana (Escobar) - 1 UNIT - 1:35pm Pacific
Last year, in 30.2 IP against Anaheim, Garcia had a 1.17 ERA and .226 BAA. Over the last three years against them, he is 10-1, with a 2.20 ERA and .225 BAA in 102.1 IP. Granted, the Angels have a different lineup with Vlad and Guillen, but it's hard to ignore those numbers. Escobar's skill set tailed off during the second half of last year, and the Mariners can still hit. I think they can have some success here.
PLEASE NOTE: All wagers are recommended for a "base" unit. Thus a side for 1 UNIT at -110 should be considered risking 1.10 UNITS to win 1.00 UNITS, while a team at +110 should be considered risking 1.00 UNITS to win 1.10 UNITS.
Good luck
[This message was edited by The General on April 08, 2004 at 11:31 AM.]
-- NEXT UPDATE will be posted before 6:00am Pacific on FRIDAY, April 9.
Season record: 3-11 -8.88 UNITS
PREFACE: One factor in my handicapping involves an extensive analysis of the pitching/batting matchup. Part of my analysis involves studying the critucal pitching statistics of Control Rate, HR Rate, Dominance Rate, and Command Ratio, among others, which do not show up in traditional box scores. Rather than expound on these invididual stats in my write-ups, I will often refer to them collectively as a pitcher's "skill set." You can rest assured that this analysis is performed on every game, even though I may not specifically refer to them.
All lines effective as of 4/8/2004, 12:28:36 AM - PST. Listed pitchers must start.
Four plays for Thursday:
ATL (THOMSON) -156 over NYM (Erickson) - 1 UNIT - 4:35pm Pacific
Erickson hasn't pitched in two of the last three seasons, including last year, when he was out due to a torn labrum. He hasn't pitched well since 1998, and there's no reason to think he has anything good left. He is an extreme groundball pitcher, and Atlanta's lineup hits those types of pitchers well. Thomson was Texas' best pitcher last year, if that means anything. His second half was terrific, and moving out of Texas should allow him to show off his pretty good skill set. His skill set, even while in Texas was pretty good. Atlanta should be able to score on Erickson, and Thomson and his bullpen should be enough preserve the win.
OVER 9 MIN (SILVA)/DET (CORNEJO) -118 - 1 UNIT - 11:05am Pacific
Silva has been pitching in relief during the last two years. He was the worst pitcher in baseball last year at handling inherited runners. He probably does not have much stamina at this point, due to his history of being a reliever, which means, we'll probably see the bullpen early. Minnesota has played in extra innings 2 of the last 3 games, and they gave up 11 runs yesterday.
Cornejo's strikeout rate last year was the worst in 50 years. His command and dominance rates are horrible. His fastball can't crack 90 anymore, but he still pitches like a fastball pitcher. Since he doesn't strike anyone out, he puts a lot of balls in play, which leads to more runners on base. Two below average starting pitchers here, with questionable bullpens, so I anticipate the game to go over.
KC (AFFELDT) -152 over Cle (D'Amico) - 1 UNIT - 11:10am Pacific
Of all the KC's lefties, Affeldt is probably best suited for Kauffman Stadium. He has shown an ability to keep balls in the park, and his skill set is above average for this stadium. The Cleveland lineup also struggles against lefties. D'Amico is a a pretty extreme flyball pitcher, so he should have trouble here. The difference in skill sets between these two starters favors Affeldt by a sginificant margin. Neither bullpen is impressive, but I feel confident that Affeldt & Co. can pull this one out.
SEA (GARCIA) -129 over Ana (Escobar) - 1 UNIT - 1:35pm Pacific
Last year, in 30.2 IP against Anaheim, Garcia had a 1.17 ERA and .226 BAA. Over the last three years against them, he is 10-1, with a 2.20 ERA and .225 BAA in 102.1 IP. Granted, the Angels have a different lineup with Vlad and Guillen, but it's hard to ignore those numbers. Escobar's skill set tailed off during the second half of last year, and the Mariners can still hit. I think they can have some success here.
PLEASE NOTE: All wagers are recommended for a "base" unit. Thus a side for 1 UNIT at -110 should be considered risking 1.10 UNITS to win 1.00 UNITS, while a team at +110 should be considered risking 1.00 UNITS to win 1.10 UNITS.
Good luck
[This message was edited by The General on April 08, 2004 at 11:31 AM.]
