well honestly, after looking over the book i am using, Education of a Sports Bettor, by McCune, i am not sure. it stats the following: " i determine the unearned runs to be scored. I use the TEAM PITCHING statistics in USA TODAY to find this number. i create this number by taking total runs allowed and earned runs allowed. The difference equals the unearned runs. i divide the unearned runs by the number of games played in order to find average unearned runs allowed per game. i add unearned run factor oto the total run factor arrived in step 3. this gives me expected total runs allowed.
