WinOnBaseball - Thursday Report - 04/22/04
-- NEXT UPDATE will be posted before 6:00am Pacific on FRIDAY, April 23.
Season record: 27-31 -6.49 UNITS
All lines effective as of 4/21/04 11:01pm PST. Listed pitchers must start.
Five plays for Thursday:
ARI (WEBB) -137 over Mil (Obermueller) - 1 UNIT - 10:05am Pacific
If you don't count the first innings in his starts, Webb has a 1.80 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. He's altering his pre-game preparation in an atempt to correct his first inning troubles. I think Webb can pitch his team to a win today. Obermueller looked great in his last start, but that was against San Francisco without Bonds and with Neifi Perez and JT Snow at the top of the order and Feliz at cleanup, so I wasn't impressed.
UNDER 7.5 CHC (WOOD)/PIT (WELLS) -119 - 1 UNIT - 4:05pm Pacific
Wells has looked great so far, and he's pitching at home, where he's even better (he led the NL in home ERA last year). Wells' skill set has been improving over the last couple of years, his fast start this year isn't too surprising. Wood is also on a roll and shouldn't have too much trouble with the Pirates lineup. I expect a nice pitching duel here.
DET (MAROTH) +164 over Min (Santana) - 1 UNIT - 10:10am Pacific
Santana hasn't yet proven to me that he's completely healthy, so I'll take the value here. Santana hasn't been himself lately, giving up groundballs when he's an extreme flyballer and not throwing his signature pitch, the changeup. Throw in Minnesota's troubles against lefties, and this seems to be a decent value play.
OAK (MULDER) +101 over Sea (Moyer) - 1 UNIT - 1:35pm Pacific
Mulder has looked fantastic, while Moyer was disapponting until his last start against Texas, in which he looked good. His once pinpoint control is becoming a little more erratic, which presents a problem against the patient hitting A's. I expect Mulder to put in a very solid game, with the bullpen finishing it off. I don't think the A's will have to score much off of Moyer in order to get the W here.
BAL (AINSWORTH) -164 over TB (Moss) - 1 UNIT - 4:05pm Pacific
One of my favorite pastimes is betting against Damian Moss. He's finally back as a starter, and I'll lay the heavier line here. Because of his terrible control, command and dominance rates, he'll always be prone to letting runners on base. With the sluggers that Baltimore has in their lineup, that is a very dangerous thing. Ainsworth showed a little promise by having a pretty good performance against the Toronto lineup in his last start, but I'll be taking this one mainly because of Moss.
PLEASE NOTE: All wagers are recommended for a "base" unit. Thus a side for 1 UNIT at -110 should be considered risking 1.10 UNITS to win 1.00 UNITS, while a team at +110 should be considered risking 1.00 UNITS to win 1.10 UNITS.
Good luck,
Edward & Richard
-- NEXT UPDATE will be posted before 6:00am Pacific on FRIDAY, April 23.
Season record: 27-31 -6.49 UNITS
All lines effective as of 4/21/04 11:01pm PST. Listed pitchers must start.
Five plays for Thursday:
ARI (WEBB) -137 over Mil (Obermueller) - 1 UNIT - 10:05am Pacific
If you don't count the first innings in his starts, Webb has a 1.80 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. He's altering his pre-game preparation in an atempt to correct his first inning troubles. I think Webb can pitch his team to a win today. Obermueller looked great in his last start, but that was against San Francisco without Bonds and with Neifi Perez and JT Snow at the top of the order and Feliz at cleanup, so I wasn't impressed.
UNDER 7.5 CHC (WOOD)/PIT (WELLS) -119 - 1 UNIT - 4:05pm Pacific
Wells has looked great so far, and he's pitching at home, where he's even better (he led the NL in home ERA last year). Wells' skill set has been improving over the last couple of years, his fast start this year isn't too surprising. Wood is also on a roll and shouldn't have too much trouble with the Pirates lineup. I expect a nice pitching duel here.
DET (MAROTH) +164 over Min (Santana) - 1 UNIT - 10:10am Pacific
Santana hasn't yet proven to me that he's completely healthy, so I'll take the value here. Santana hasn't been himself lately, giving up groundballs when he's an extreme flyballer and not throwing his signature pitch, the changeup. Throw in Minnesota's troubles against lefties, and this seems to be a decent value play.
OAK (MULDER) +101 over Sea (Moyer) - 1 UNIT - 1:35pm Pacific
Mulder has looked fantastic, while Moyer was disapponting until his last start against Texas, in which he looked good. His once pinpoint control is becoming a little more erratic, which presents a problem against the patient hitting A's. I expect Mulder to put in a very solid game, with the bullpen finishing it off. I don't think the A's will have to score much off of Moyer in order to get the W here.
BAL (AINSWORTH) -164 over TB (Moss) - 1 UNIT - 4:05pm Pacific
One of my favorite pastimes is betting against Damian Moss. He's finally back as a starter, and I'll lay the heavier line here. Because of his terrible control, command and dominance rates, he'll always be prone to letting runners on base. With the sluggers that Baltimore has in their lineup, that is a very dangerous thing. Ainsworth showed a little promise by having a pretty good performance against the Toronto lineup in his last start, but I'll be taking this one mainly because of Moss.
PLEASE NOTE: All wagers are recommended for a "base" unit. Thus a side for 1 UNIT at -110 should be considered risking 1.10 UNITS to win 1.00 UNITS, while a team at +110 should be considered risking 1.00 UNITS to win 1.10 UNITS.
Good luck,
Edward & Richard
