5/5 MLB Wednesday

BlackampGold · May 5, 2004

Well- I think I have played and lost every extra-inning game the last 3 days. Lots of games that could go either way are not going mine right now...

All plays are for 1 base unit
& listed pitchers -

Yesterday: 1-4 20.00% -3.63U
YTD: 56-53 51.38% +1.77U

Kansas City/Toronto UNDER 9 -130 - Toronto facing a lefty(.213 BA), Toronto @ home(.194 BA, 2.4 RPG, 7-2 UNDER) & Kansas City facing Halladay.

Pittsburgh +196 - Getting this price with Kip Wells is an obligatory play. He has good career numbers vs. Houston's lineup and is really coming into his own as an elite starter. Pirates will do better vs. Clemens than Petitte. Bucs have good fastball hitters, are better versus righies, and are hitting .291 on the road as a team.

Detroit +160 - Does Escobar have a mental block with pitching in his home park? Struggled at Skydome last year big time and now has had two starts at Edison (or whatever they are calling it now) Field in which he struggled. Jason Johnson good enough to pitch deep into the game and give the Tigers a chance in this one. Also good numbers vs. Anaheim lineup.

Tampa Bay +133 - Waechter has a 0.631 WHIP vs. Drese at 1.521. Baserunners + Arlington = failure. Pitching edge and value with Tampa Bay in this one.

Leans only so far - Phillies, Braves/Padres OVER.

jaypaw · May 5, 2004

just out of curiosity

I cant formulate many scenarios where waechter has an edge on drese - I do see that drese has 9 more walks but he also has 7 more ks, a lower era (2.91 vs 3.55), a better record (1-0 vs 1-1), and more starts

can you explain?

BlackampGold · May 5, 2004

Jaypaw - no problem - ERA is a bit over-rated in my opinion. Important, but I think walks+hits/innings pitched is a better indicator - for example: Drese allowed 7 hits and 5 walks in 6 innings versus the Red Sox last outing. Now only 2 runs scored so he obviously should be commended for getting out of jams BUT...if you allow an average of 2 base-runners every inning, especially in a hitter's park like Arlington, you are asking for trouble and more often than not are not going to get away with allowing only 2 earned runs. Waechter has allowed only 7 hits and 1 walk in 12 2/3 innings. Hitters are batting .156 off him while hitters are batting .288 of Drese. Texas is a hot team right now and is hitting very well versus righties this season but I think Tampa is a good play at +133. Good luck!