Kim ball - When will William Hung kim log a loss???

jaypaw · May 10, 2004

YTD 16-20 +1.43

Looking again to go against Kim - though both times I've done it this year the sox ended up winning by 4 runs...

But can it last is the question - in Kim's last start he was certainly not responsible for their win - 3.1IP, 6H, 4ER, 1HR, 1BB, 2K - and yes it was vs. cleveland - with D'amico pitching... D'amico was worse - he gave up 7H, 7ER, 2BB, 3K, and 2HR over 5IP.

However - the pitching scenario is VERY different this time out... Last time the sox used Kim, Malaska, Arroyo, Embree, Williamson, and Foulke... Last NIGHT the sox used Malaska, Arroyo, Dinardo, and Timlin - so ready to go tonight will be Embree, Williamson, and Foulke. These three have been convincing me that they are worthy - but they won't have any throw away pitchers to come in if William hunh Kim decides to lay an egg and go 2 innings or so.

Not that Arroyo can't come out two nights in a row (scary thought...) but certainly dinardo will have the night off after giving up a walk 2 hits and 1ER last night, and I believe timlin also wont be coming out tonight after having a not so great night last night either. On the cleveland side - they only used 3 pitchers last night (2 relivers - riske and jiminez) so my good buddy betancourtmannykiller will be ready to go tonight...

I think we will see williamson and/or foulke tonight for sure but the question is - will Kim get rocked early to the point where its not recoverable.

If the sox don't sweep cleveland tonight would be my best guess for them to draw a loss - and at +196 (@pinny) and -1.5 +286 Cleveland looks to be worth the risk on the surface. Think about it - 2 units to win 4.82 units - Redsox #5 pitcher, thin bullpen, and though cleveland has lost their last two outings they also managed to put together 7 and 11 runs respectively in those losses at Baltimore.

Thoughts anyone?

jaypaw · May 10, 2004

Is anyone here today at all?

PITBULL · May 10, 2004

Im here!!

and I dont know if this helps, but Im taking Boston -1.5 runs. GL.......

jaypaw · May 10, 2004

uh oh

well I see dollar signs when I look at this payout they are offering...

Cleveland sucks but why are they this underrated?

jaypaw · May 10, 2004

Do you see my point about only Williamson embree and foulke being available ?

I guess the question is Will BHKim do better than last time...

If he goes out in the 2nd inning I don't think I'm wrong in saying that the rest of the game will be an adventure. Williamson has had great stuff dont get me wrong but his surgically repaired elbow makes him pitch like an 80 year old man after he gets through an inning or so - and foulke is lights out but hasnt had much work since he strained his back... Embree is fine vs lefties but he has given up 2 homers - which is a lot this early for a situational dude IMO.

They have noone to hang out to dry or "burn innings" in the case that Kim tosses a shitball today. Am I right?

But that is the question IMO - how far will Kim get.

There is only a slight margin of error here also - because if he gets taken out early and they put Wake in then they'll win most likely, however if they leave him in too long with the hopes of only having williamson and embree and foulke to pitch 2 or 2.2 innings then it may be too late - and that is when kim gives up most of his hits - once people have the time to adjust to his chicken shit throw...

Sharp · May 10, 2004

You are obviously concerned with the lack of Bosox pitching, and I can't imagine that you are thrilled by backing D'Amico, so have you considered betting over the total?

Just a thought.

sharp.

jaypaw · May 10, 2004

Yes I thought I had posted it here but I did post in someones thread that I thought the over might be a good choice.

and yes I am concerned with the sox pitching

I am also very impressed with the value that lies in the play(s)

It may very well lose but over time this should be a good bet IMO

jaypaw · May 10, 2004

can only get cleveland +180 at bodog now so I took it for starters

manny is out of the lineup at least it appears that way...

Will keep a close eye for pinnys lines to come back online so i can get the alternate line as well

GL

jaypaw · May 10, 2004

got d'amico now at +284 -1.5

GL

jaypaw · May 10, 2004

damn I see damico now back up at pinny at over +200

well at least i tried

GL

jaypaw · May 10, 2004

almost forgot - Also the over 10.5 -110 @pinny

kidslick · May 10, 2004

I HEARD WINDIS BLOWING OUT TO LEFTFIELD 15 -20 MPH
.

jaypaw · May 10, 2004

oh

ya

jaypaw · May 10, 2004

so tell me who comes in in the top of the 6th now?

Dinardo managed to burn some time and now its time for us to see what this pen is made of.

I'm suprised dinardo did so well but I guess they figured they had to hang someone out there this early on - and he did the job.

My guess is that they will send out embree

Still too early for williamson or foulke

jaypaw · May 10, 2004

while I wait for embree to come out

Kim still hasnt logged a loss.

unless they pull him from the rotation I expect we will see a loss credited to him soon...

jaypaw · May 10, 2004

DINARRRRRDDDDOOOOOOOOOO

This is AWESOME

Dinardo has done ok to get through a little over an inning but if they hang him out to dry here I will be shocked - and thankful as well

jaypaw · May 10, 2004

there we go single on the first AB of the inning!!!

jaypaw · May 10, 2004

YTD 19-20 +7.07

just what the doctor ordered

time for a few days off...

(or a pedro fade? naaa)

jaypaw · May 11, 2004

Well I guess my party is over - Kim is out of the rotation...

I didnt realize he was on the hook for the loss so I guess that was it.

Now I'll have to look for good fade prices on Arroyo.

Bye bye Hung Kim! Its been fun...

On a side note - I'm trying not to look but I couldn't help but notice that Sabathia is listed at -1.5 +311 and +193 for tonight vs Pedro.

I wouldnt even look at this game at all if it werent for this bullpen - Embree had a rough night - Dinardo looked good but did what he does best - allowing runs - and Timlin didn't last long either. Malaska was hung out to dry as well once the game was more or less out of reach...

Now were getting to the cream of the crop (ugh) in this pen... Dinardo Malaska and Timlin have all pitched in consecutive nights so I really doubt we'll see them tonight.

Confidence in Embree HAS to have taken a slight hit last night with him giving up 2 runs.

Foulke looked great last night and they spared him from more than an inning so he will be set for tonight - and Williamson hasnt pitched in about a week. Williamson has only pitched twice in the last 12 days and one of his two outings was a blown save in texas.

Tonight it comes down to Foulke and Williamson with a slight chance that we'll see Arroyo if pedro gets rocked like he did vs texas in his start before last (4IP 6ER 1HR 1BB 3K)...

However Manny will be back tonight from his citizenship BS and If it does come down to Pedro going deep in the game it wont take much for it to be a major nail biter.

Anyway I gotta shut up and decide to take the day off.

GL