What are the best systems for the baseball season?

kayaman · Apr 6, 2004

I'm knew to baseball and I've heard it can be a lot of fun to invest ine. I was just wondering if any one had any good systems that may work to on a consistent money making basis.

For example, I know in the basketball forum there was talk about fading a team on a three game road trip or more. Does this same type of strategy work in baseball?

Another thing that I had thought about was picking three teams and riding them all season doubling up if they lose. For example taking the Yankees, Angels, and Stros everytime they play no matter the line>

Any ideas that you might have would be greatly appreciated.

packer2012 · Apr 6, 2004

Hey man,

Based on the three teams you mentioned, if they hit any sort of even minor losing streak...

You will being betting the national debt on the double up. Bad idea!

kayaman · Apr 6, 2004

i know it sounds crazy. do you know if there are three teams that are expected to win or at least cover the majority of the time.

BoZZi · Apr 6, 2004

I can name you 12 teams that are expected to win but this approach will kill you man cuz they will all be big chalks and like packer said, one little 4 or 5 game losing streak and your down a grand before you know it....i dont think you can approach bases like that and if you dont know what you are doing i'll rather lay off.

kayaman · Apr 6, 2004

thanks both of you. i follow baseball. love to watch the marlins. I probably won't be trying this method anytime soon with real cash. Do you have any suggestions about something else.

what do you think about the road trip system. I don't know what the longest road trip in baseball is but let's say the marlins go on a four game trip. In this case I would fade them, playing their opponent (home team) for $50. If home team covers I win and leave the remaining three games alone. If the Marlins cover then i fade them on the next game for 100 to win 45. And so on. How does this sound?

BoZZi · Apr 6, 2004

I dont know what to tell you, i havent tried it....maybe someone who has experience with it can help ya out

slapshot · Apr 6, 2004

teams get hot and cold so do players win 8 in a row lose 10 just have to watch

golfingarkansas · Apr 6, 2004

my system! i wait about a month and get the lines more "real" and bet alot of -140 or -!150 home teams ! to me the line is self explanatory

home -120 road team is better
140/150 line should be clearly the better team
180 to 200 clearly better team/pitcher to much chalk
today for example marlins def w/c with beckett
-158 gl

truelyhandicapping · Apr 6, 2004

teams usually don't get swept in baseball.

take the team down 2-0, or 3-0 in a series.

and take a team like the yanks tonight with moose pitching, usually a good pitcher will not lose back to back games vs a team they have played in less than week ago.

same in reverse order.

ATX · Apr 6, 2004

problem with systems in baseball...

55% system winners will not make money unless you are playing dogs or less than -110 on faves

yeah, games like the NYY/TB matchup with Moose are USUALLY won by the -200 fave. but with the dog you dont need to win MOST of the time.

If you are betting baseball you need to have a moneyline chart memorized with spreads to breakeven percentages.

TheGeneral+ · Apr 6, 2004

Good feedback all.

Thanks for sharing.

kayaman · Apr 6, 2004

Thanks for all the info. I got a lot of interesting advise that I will definetly be keeping my eye on.

Now, this is probably a stupid question, but why are the vigs higher when taking dogs? Like what's the deal with the Dodgers game tonight? Why is that if I risk 100 on LA I'll win 180, especially since they are a -1.5 point favorite. How am I suppose to interpret that?

kayaman · Apr 6, 2004

One other thing I was thinking about. What do you think my chances are at making profit if I only play home fav ML of -200 or higher at say 100 each time, regardless of the matchup?

SSI · Apr 6, 2004

you will get hammered.. do not play (-2.00) anything..

kayaman · Apr 6, 2004

I can see how you would get hammered if they don't win 75% of the time at least. But shouldn't home teams favored that highly win 4 of 5 tries. I'm going to study this for a while before I actually risk my money on it. Give it a few months maybe until the allstar break.

PeteRoseJR · Apr 6, 2004

Does anyone know where I can find the above mentioned Moneyline % chart?

Thanks,

PRj

PeteRoseJR · Apr 6, 2004

For baseball the way I bet is to wait out the first month to get a good base of stats. Then I base EVERYTHING on starting pitching. After every game I give the starting pitcher a rating based on their performance.

EXAMPLE----- Innings Pitched + 1.25
Hits - 1.00
Earned Runs - 1.45
Walks - .92
Strikeouts + .88

C.C Sabathia CLE 7 Ip 2 hits 0 earnred runs 4 walks 9 k's
Rating... +10.99

Brad Radke MIN 6 IP 11 hits 2 era 0 walks 3 k's
Rating .... -3.76

So then with this rating next THREE outings I will bet SABATHIA provided he fits certain other criteria..NO NEGATIVES

1) HAs to be under -155
2) Cant be against the other teams ACE ie) Halladay,Zito,etc.
3) If teh bullpen has been blowing games I will also pass.
4) Previous pitch count, other small factors as well

As for RADKE I will wait at least two POSITIVE outings before betting him again.

Its an good theory because it is selective and it keeps the number of games you bet down, which is always good.

Hope this helps. Good Luck.

PRJ

NEWPORT · Apr 6, 2004

always LOOK at DOGS FIRST and always

PeteRoseJR · Apr 6, 2004

I think with Baseball you have to be on top of things more so than with other sports.

PRJ

barman · Apr 6, 2004

"Never bet more than -200 anything..."

BM: Never?

Never?

Two problems with that statement.

First, it implies that anything more costly than -200 will Always (the direct antonym to Never) be a good choice.

Second is that upon review at season's end we can see that teams at -210 (for example) will win very close or slightly more than 2 out of 3 times. Therefore, in fact we can see that Never would mean you Passed on a group of games which win 2/3 of the time.

More useful would be to note that anything more than -200 means you should be a bit more selective to protect your more exposed Unit.

It also leads to realization that said Unit size should be quite a bit smaller, percentage to bankroll size, than your average size Unit in the more familiar world of -110 ATS investing.

My experience has shown that while I might expose 3 to 5% of my bank on a really good looking -110 sport (traditional football and basketball wagering), when it comes to moneyline baseball or hockey, my average Unit should only be 1% or maybe 2% at most.

You won't get 'killed' betting -200 teams. But since losing say 4-5 of them in a row could of course mean 8-10 units lost, if you're using 5% units, you've just blown half your bank in those 4-5 losses.

PROTECT YOUR UNIT, by using smaller percentage of bankroll and when you DO use a choice of more than -200 be very selective or Pass.