College World Series Picks

will try and keep it all in 1 thread (i will NOT edit this post - but just add to it with game picks - and in the opening round - depending on the prices - i will be on at least 3 of the 4 games).

@ olympic:

Texass -125 (starts play friday) to win its bracket: they are in a bracket with 3 stiffs. the other bracket is brutal with texass' bracket is creampuff city. if the horns lose one game in this bracket i will be shocked!

Texass +250 to win it all: is texass the best team @ omaha? debatable. but as i satted above - they will go 3-0 in their bracket and on wednesday, june 23 will qualify for the champ series. this means they will have plenty of rest for the team and staff for the champ series starting saturday, june 26. i fully expect the other bracket to beat the crap out of each other and come into the champ series not as rested. if, by chance the other bracket champ also goes 3-0 in its games i will have a chance to hedge this bet and still make a profit since texass will be the fave against whoever they play in the champ series.

LSU +190 (starts play saturday) to be 1st team eliminated from its bracket: this LSU team is the 2nd worst team in omaha (arizona). they got here by playing stiffs - and at home. they will be exposed for the frauds they are by going "2 and BBQ" and be going home monday afternoon.

Arkansas +200 (starts play friday) to be 1st team eliminated from its bracket: this one is dicey. the only reason i like this one is because they are the only team i know will be playing in this game after they get killed by texass. the GA/AZ game is a toss-up and whoever loses that game and plays in the sunday elimination game will be on equal footing with arkansas. and just like texass in the champ series - if i need to hedge i think i will get that chance here - especially if arkansas plays arizona.

THANKS WINKY

winkyduck, get off the bong.

do you even watch college baseball? do you know anything about college baseball? do you realize that there are 4 teams (out of 8, I might add) from the SEC in the CWS? maybe, that means that the SEC was the toughest conference in the nation this year. in every series except 2, LSU won at least 2 of 3 from SEC competion. to call GA and Ark stiffs is competely ignorant. yes, TX is the number 1 seed and will be favored to win this thing, but these teams won their respective divisions of the SEC.

btw - LSU is 25-14 lifetime in Omaha, has quite the homefield advantage as the locals support them and btw, has won 5 world series here in since '86.

get a clue, dude.

Well said Friday....Winky - LSU is due and will give Texas all they can handle in the Championship series, if they can beat the Hogs twice....GL with your wagers!

Winky, you must also be an USC fan...

friday - yes i watch college baseball. i am a cal state fullerton alum.

i stand by what i said about the SEC. it is well known skip bertman gives committee members "BJs" in exchange for preferential treatment in the playoffs.

the "mighty" SEC had 2 teams in omaha last year. know what their record was? 1-4 and that is misleading since that 1 win was a game between 2 SEC schools - so someone had to win it.

i don't care about lsu's past history in omaha. none of those players are coming back to play this season.

the SEC does well when it plays one of its own - because they play the same kind of ball. as we saw last year, when it plays a non "gorilla ball" team they struggle and looking at who the 4 SEC teams in round 1, the only "gorilla ball" team i can see them playing is Miami. texass, arizona and fullerton are "small ball" teams that can - and will - give the SEC schools a fit. it won't shock me to see all 4 SEC teams LOSE their opening game. of the 4 SEC schools i really only see 1 winning its opening game - Georgia and even that is ?????able.

i stand by what i posted. the SEC will be exposed as frauds for the 2nd straight year in omaha much to the dismay of "experts" and the conference - but not to those who really take the time to look into the teams and games in detail.

come wednesday's bracket championship games - the only SEC team that could be left is Georgia (or Arkansas). i can see the SEC doing no better than 3-8 in omaha with 2 of those wins being over arizona and 1 over another SEC school (the monday early game between SC and LSU).

Thanks for the thoughts Winky .... got a group that is heading up there on Friday to hang out in Omaha for a few days .... admittedly don't know much about college baseball myself, just like to go up for the party and hopefully the SEC teams will bring some of their southern girls up to Omaha this weekend

the key to making plays is getting a good line. i got lucky getting texass -125 to win its bracket for it is now -250!

as for the 1st sets of game picks, there are 2 games i REALLY like - texass -205 over arkansas and miami -130 over lsu. i am NOT going to lay -205 with texass, though. a 2-team parlay with texass and miami pays roughly 1.6:1. i have no clue what will happen in the AZ/GA game so i am passing on that one completely (although if forced to bet it - i would take the Cats +120 for i am NOT laying -140 with an SEC team).

so what i am going to do is make a pair of 3-team parlays that will payoff more in the long run (for the record i HATE doing parlays in the MLB but don't mind doing it in the CWS for i feel i have a better handle on the game than the books):

3-teamer #1 (Pays 4.65:1)

Texass -205
Miami -130
Fullerton +115

3-teamer #2 (Pays 3.58:1)

Texass -205
Miami -130
South Carolina -135

i hate making plays where i KNOW 1 of them will lose. but here in doing this i am making more money if texass and miami win - as i think they will. as i said, a texass/miami 2-teamer pays 1.63:1. if parlay #2 hits - the payoff will be 2.58:1 while #1 would be 3.66:1 (gotta take off 1 unit of profit since 1 parlay loses). even if #2 hits i am still making almost 1 unit of profit more than betting texass/miami alone.

You probably already know this but I've heard that Miami is holding their ace pitcher back because he pitches a style that suits LSU bats...

Winky, I wouldnt mind picking up a few extra dollars this afternnoon, do you have a strong opinion on the arizona and Georgia game?

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Kruser:
Winky, I wouldnt mind picking up a few extra dollars this afternnoon, do you have a strong opinion on the arizona and Georgia game?<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

NONE! i can make a case against both teams. make me bet it i'll take the dog - but this is the ONLY ame in the opening round i have no clue on. i am rooting for arizona and if they win it will tell me a lot about the SEC - and confirm what i am saying is right!

All plays 1 units unless otherwise stated:

2 Plays for Saturday:

Miami -135 (LSU): Canes are very good - LSU is decent - but not the same club we are used to seeing in Omaha.

The one I am all over is a 2-unit play on a school I know a little bit about

Saturday @ 11:30P (PDT – since that is the only time
zone that matters)

Fullerton +115
SC Cocks –135

Here are some stats to look at:

Pitcher A:

W-L: 11-4
ERA: 1.84
IP: 141.2
H: 89
R-ER: 35-29
BB: 18
SO: 119
BA: .179

Pitcher B:

W-L: 10-4
ERA: 2.88
IP: 112.1
H: 88
R-ER: 46-36
BB: 28
SO: 135
BA: .209

Pitcher A has won his last 10 games with an ERA of
0.94 and in the post-season is 3-0 w/an ERA of 0.39.
Pitcher B has 1 win on Tuesday (mid-week games NEVER
see the best pitchers go – for those ones are saved
for the weekends) and 5 on Sunday (The way it USUALLY
works in college – the BEST pitcher goes Friday, the
2nd best one Saturday and the worst one on Sunday).

Team A is batting .340 in the post-season while Team B
is batting .256. Team A’s best hitter was .437 in the
regular season and .433 in the post-season while Team
B’s best hit .332 during the regular season and is
1-20 in the post-season which computes to a pathetic
.050 average. In the post-season, Team A has 8 guys
hitting .300 (minimum at least 2 ABs per game) with 5
hitting over .400 while Team B has 4 guys hitting over
.300 and 2 over .400.

For those who believe in Strength of Schedule, Team
A’s overall “SoS” was #3 at 113.7 (as in 3rd toughest)
and non-conference “SoS” was #2 at 115.3. Team B’s
overall “SoS” was #86 at 104.1 and non-conference
“SoS” was 184 out of 286 D1 baseball schools at a
pathetic 96.8. For those bad at math, Team A’s overall
“SoS” was 9.6 points higher with the non-conference
difference being a mind blowing 18.5 – or almost 20
points higher.

Now that you have seen the numbers, which team would
you rather bet on in this game? If you answered “Team
A” – congratulations – you got that one right.

If you answered “Team A” – you also chose the dog in
this game: Cal State Fullerton

As much as we hear about how great the SEC was this
past season, the numbers for these 2 schools don’t
show it. Personally, I think the SEC is a fraud. They
were given 9 bids, got 6 to the Super Regional and 4
to Omaha. I think the first 2 schools to go “2 and
BBQ” will be SEC teams with the other 2 not around for
much longer. South Carolina is the overall #2 seed
while Fullerton not only wasn’t a national seed but
seeded #2 in the regionals and if you do the math #26
overall when the teams were ranked.

In reading articles on these 2 schools, I hear things
from the Fullerton side along the lines of they are
NOT happy how last year ended (losing 2 to Stanford
when all they needed was 1 win to play Rice in the
title series) and are seeking to make amends this trip
to Omaha. From the Cocks side I read some of the same
things, but I also read into it the fact they are
happy to be in Omaha and even though they are the #2
overall seed don’t really think they are in Omaha to
win it. We also get a rare chance at a quality
ballplayer feeling slighted.

This one is really simple here. The team that is
playing the best right now is NOT the #2 overall seed
– but the unseeded team here. As hot as Jason Windsor
is right now – I wouldn’t bet against him if he
pitched against the Yankees. In a conference with
National Player of the Year, Jered Weaver of Long
Beach, Windsor and Weaver were co-players of the year
and in all honesty – Windsor should have won it alone.
The 2 faced each other a few weeks ago a game Windsor
won 2-1 by throwing a 10-inning CG. In Windsor’s L10
starts, he has gone at least 8IP in all but one (and
that’s not fair – since the one start he went only 6 –
was in the Sunday regional title game against
Pepperdine after throwing 9IP Friday). In his L10
starts he has also allowed only 2 teams to average 1
runner per inning and in his last 6 starts he is
allowing less than 2 RUNNERS for every 3 innings. You
can’t score if you can’t get anyone on base – and
Windsor isn’t even allowing anyone to get on base! The
Fullerton coaches LOVE to overuse Windsor and let him
throw a million pitches per game but in his outing
last week vs. Tulane, Windsor was pulled after 8
innings with an 8-0 lead and “only” 108 pitches. He
will be ready to toss as long as needed here and he
better throw a CG for our bullpen SUCKS. Last season
we had Chad Cordero closing – and to show you how good
“Chief” is he is now the closer for the Expos – and he
was called up last year – and not in September. We
also might catch a monster break here from the
weather. We all know Omaha tends to be a launching pad
and if that is the case – that would be bad for
Fullerton who was outhomered this season 46-50 but it
MUST be mentioned here Fullerton plays in a pitcher’s
park where balls literally die as well as 3 more games
at Irvine and Long Beach which are also graveyards.
South Carolina outhomered its opponents 102-46 which
is along the lines of SEC ball. If we are to compare
styles of play, Fullerton would be the West Coast
offense (dink and dunk all over the place – bunt
runners over, hit-and-run, etc.) while the Cocks are
“The Raiders” (in love with the vertical game –
booming HRs). With the weather estimated to be cloudy
and overcast this will keep balls in the park – and if
that is the case – Fullerton comes out huge here. I
will also say Fullerton has one of the very best CF
you will ever see – Clark Hardman. He is a freshman
who can track down anything and mark my words, he WILL
throw out someone in Omaha trying to take an extra base – he
has a GUN for an arm.

Add it all up and I think the better team is NOT the
one that is favored. I’ll take my chances with the
team that is playing better right now and has the
hottest pitcher in the nation

In what could be the lowest scoring game of the CWS,
I’ll go with:

Fullerton 3
South Carolina 1

Fullerton +115 is the play here

Winky:

For what it's worth, just wanted to comment how much I enjoy reading your write-ups on the CWS. Although watching the CWS is more for my enjoyment and not anything serious from a gambling standpoint, your analysis makes it that much more pleasurable for this oldman as this is the only time I follow college baseball. I'll be rooting for your alma mater as I placed a future on the Titans this morning. We Californians need to stick together. Best of luck to you throughout the series.

agree with you 100% oldman. in addition to college baseball, he provides excellent insight into the big west during my favorite time of the year college basketball season. thanks again winky.

texas rolls 13-2

Brackets
Which team from bracket 2 will reach the CWS final
Team to reach 2004 NCAA CWS FINAL

105 Miami -125
106 South Carolina +300
107 Cal State Fullerton +325
108 LSU +320

* Note:

Winky, as a fellow so cal local and Fullerton Alumni I feel compelled to correct you in your 2 3-teamers instead of 1 2-teamer. See, you are not taking into account that you are actually putting 2 units into play by playing the 2 3-team parlays, thus, the correct payoff for the 2-teamer would be 3.26. I do not know of a situation where it is beneficial to play both sides of a game to gain advantage unless there is a substantial line movement. instead playing both sides of a game (inserting into a parlay) and putting twice the amount of units into play, it is wiser to just play your original play for twice the amount. Anyhow, look forward to your posts mas they are very insightful.

Nice writeups Winky. You were right on with Texas in the first one. I have them working, they looked great today just as you predicted. One another note, what's up with spelling Texas with two s's. Just jivving you, just keep the winners coming and spell anything anyway you like.

@ olympic

Adding 1 Prop Play for Saturday:

Team to lead after the first 4.5 innings

Cal State Fullerton -130

as we all got to see friday, the SEC is shaping up to be the frauds i thought they were. i sense we will see more of the same saturday - especially in G1 with the white-hot pitcher fullerton is tossing.

In Jason Windsor's L10 starts, Fullerton is 8-2 in both scoring first and up after 4.5 innings. The Cocks aren’t as strong early under Matt Campbell, being around .500ish in both categories. We get some value here in that Fullerton is the visiting team – meaning they get an extra AB – and that could make all the difference in the world.

I said I thought this would be a low scoring game and I will stick to it. I think Fullerton scores first – and if it happens in T1 it won’t shock me. Justin Turner will find a way to get on base, Clark Hardman will bunt him over to 2nd (if Turner singles – or get him to 3rd if he doubles) and Kurt Suzuki will get Turner home with a basehit or groundout/sac fly. After 4.5 innings I can see Fullerton UP 2-0, also. this should mean a play on Fullertons coring first but i'll pass on that one - and just play 1 prop:

Team to lead after the first 4.5 innings

Cal State Fullerton -130

this is NOT an official play - but the other prop olympic has is total bases between Steve Pearce and P.J.P Pilittere. see no reason to go against P.J. here. when he comes to bat you will see he has a truly weird stance and you think there is NO WAY he can hit the ball - or with power - but he can - and has. i don't see the Cocks getting more than 6 hits against Windsor so P.J. should win this one for i can see him getting a couple of hits. what could help P.J. is that the batter in front of him Kurt Suzuki is putting up numbers that seem unrealistic. you might see the cocks pitch around Suzuki to get to P.J. but the only reason i am NOT going with P.J. is at times the fullerton coaches bat him 6th - not 4th - and if he bats 6th all of the value and reason to play P.J. disappears. if you can get your hands on a starting lineup ahead of time - and P.J. is batting 4th - this is a play to consider making at this price. if he is NOT batting 4th - pass!

Winky....solid analysis of this game....I am on CS Fullerton also...I want to play the under, is a total available on this game...Thanks and again very solid analysis...Gl and Aloha CC.

haven't seen one - maybe 5dimes or pinnacle

cocks opening round game L2 years

2002 - GA Tech 11, S. Carolina 0

2003 - Stanford 8, S. Carolina 0

2004........

won't shock me to see the cocks get a "hat trick" here