Two potential home dog plays involving the teams from yesterday's improbable comeback by the Braves in Baltimore...good luck
Major League Baseball Monday
FLORIDA (40 - 35) at ATLANTA (35 - 39) Monday, 6/28/2004 7:35 PM
BRAD PENNY (R) vs. JOHN THOMSON (R)
Line: Atlanta +105
ATLANTA (Ticker) -- Florida salvaged the finale of a three-game interleague series at Tampa Bay with Sunday's 11-4 rout. Juan Pierre and Jeff Conine each drove in three runs. Atlanta is seeking its first three-game winning streak since May 13-15. The Braves scored seven runs in the eighth inning in Sunday's 8-7 comeback victory at Baltimore.
StatFox Super Situations favoring ATLANTA against the money line
* Play Against - Road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (FLORIDA) - starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs last outing, cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games. (147-116 since 1997.) (55.9%, +57.6 units. Rating = 2*)
* Play Against - Road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (FLORIDA) - cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games, starting a pitcher who gave up no earned runs last outing. (65-43 since 1997.) (60.2%, +33.1 units. Rating = 3*)
* Play On - Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (ATLANTA) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 on the season-NL, with a cold starting pitcher- ERA >= 7.00 over his last 5 starts. (37-19 since 1997.) (66.1%, +28 units. Rating = 4*)
The StatFox Game Estimator projects a 4.9-4.1 Atlanta win in this game. Based upon that, the estimated line would be Atlanta –143.
StatFox Matchup Power Trends against similar type opponents favoring ATLANTA to win against the money line
* ATLANTA is 57-29 (+26.4 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start over the last 3 seasons. The average score was ATLANTA 4.6, OPPONENT 3.8 - (Rating = 2*)
* ATLANTA is 6-1 (+5.3 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a starting pitcher whose throws more than 6.5 innings per start this season. The average score was ATLANTA 4.0, OPPONENT 1.6 - (Rating = 0*)
StatFox Situational Power Trends favoring ATLANTA to win against the money line
* PENNY is 2-7 (-7.8 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -125 or more since 1997. (Team's Record) The average score was PENNY 2.9, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 0*)
* THOMSON is 6-1 (+5.7 Units) against the money line vs. division opponents this season. (Team's Record) The average score was THOMSON 6.4, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 0*)
Key Stats and facts
Atlanta comes into this game having won three of its last four games, while Florida has lost three of its last four. Atlanta has gone 15-7 over the last three seasons at home against the Marlins.
BALTIMORE (30 - 41) at KANSAS CITY (28 - 44) Monday, 6/28/2004 8:10 PM
ERIK BEDARD (L) vs. DARRELL MAY (L)
Line: Kansas City -105
KANSAS CITY, Missouri (Ticker) -- The Kansas City Royals continue a 10-game homestand on Monday when they start a four-game series against the Baltimore Orioles. Baltimore is attempting to bounce back from possibly its worst loss of the season. The Orioles blew a 7-0 lead after six innings in Sunday's 8-7 setback to Atlanta. The struggling Orioles bullpen was tagged for seven runs and seven hits in the seventh inning, employing three relievers. Baltimore has lost seven straight series.
StatFox Super Situations favoring KANSAS CITY against the money line
* Play Against - Any team (BALTIMORE) - with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 3 starts, after a game where the bullpen was hit hard for 4 or more runs. (174-137 over the last 5 seasons.) (55.9%, +54.6 units. Rating = 2*)
* Play Against - All favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (BALTIMORE) - with a starting pitcher whose lasts less than 5 innings per start, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 3 starts. (23-8 since 1997.) (74.2%, +19.9 units. Rating = 4*)
The StatFox Game Estimator projects a 5-3.2 Kansas City win in this game. Based upon that projection, the equivalent line would be Kansas City –191.
StatFox Matchup Power Trends against similar type opponents favoring KANSAS CITY to win against the money line
* BALTIMORE is 3-17 (-13.8 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season. The average score was BALTIMORE 4.3, OPPONENT 7.1 - (Rating = 2*)
* MAY is 13-3 (+10.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) The average score was MAY 6.9, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 1*)
StatFox Situational Power Trends favoring KANSAS CITY to win against the money line
* BALTIMORE is 2-10 (-8.3 Units) against the money line in road games against left-handed starters this season. The average score was BALTIMORE 3.0, OPPONENT 6.7 - (Rating = 0*)
* BALTIMORE is 6-18 (-13.4 Units) against the money line in June games this season. The average score was BALTIMORE 4.2, OPPONENT 5.9 - (Rating = 1*)
* MAY is 6-0 (+6.9 Units) against the money line in home games when his team is off 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) The average score was MAY 7.5, OPPONENT 4.5 - (Rating = 0*)
Key Stats and facts
In a battle of left handed starters, Kansas City holds a slight edge in that performance. The Royals are 10-11 against lefties while the O’s are just 7-15. In fact, Baltimore scores just 3.5 rpg in those games. KC also owns a bullpen edge of almost 1.00 ERA so with Bedard averaging just 4.8 innings per start, the Oriole pen could see a lot of innings tonight.
USC Trojans
The only negative about the 2003 USC campaign is that it had to share half of the national title with LSU. The Trojans’ weaker schedule and loss at Cal eventually left them out of the BCS title game and in a Rose Bowl dual with Michigan. They were up to the task against the Wolverines and finished the season at 12-1, covering 11 of those 13 games! For 2004, USC may have to go unscathed or face a similar fate as the BCS formula frowns on soft schedules. USC’s may be the lightest schedule of any serious contender. This team still remains the class of the Pac 10 though after consecutive dominating seasons. QB Matt Leinart is a favorite for the Heisman Trophy and the Trojans boast three all-American candidates on defense. They’ll face a stiff challenge right out of the gate at Virginia Tech.
Key StatFox Handicapping Angles for USC for the 2004 season
Since '00, USC is 15-2 ATS (88%) vs good rushing defenses allowing 120 RYPG or less
Trends hitting over 75% for USC are in abundance after the past two years' runs, so writing about them is not a difficult task. USC has had an incredibly balanced pro style offense in that time. Good run defenses have been overwhelmed by the Trojans' many skills.
* Potential spots for 2004: 10/30 at WaSU, 11/6 at OST
Over the L3 seasons, USC is 17-3 ATS (85%) in the second half of the season
Even in 2001 when USC won just six games, it still closed the season strong. The team has peaked at the end in each of Pete Caroll's three years as coach. The Trojans have exhibited few weaknesses, and its shone through in crucial late season action.
* Potential spots for 2004: any game 10/23 vs WAS or later
USC is 5-14 ATS (26%) in its L19 vs good rushing teams - avg 200 RYPG or more
Not many teams have found what it takes to beat USC in recent years, but those that have been most successful against the Trojans have excelled at running the football. If you look at their three losses in '02 & '03, two have been against capable rushing teams.
* Potential spots for 2004: 8/28 vs VT, 10/9 vs CAL, 11/27 vs ND
StatFox Quick Tips
Over the L3 seasons, USC is 13-0 ATS coming off 2 consecutive covers as a favorite
Over the L3 seasons, USC is 19-5 ATS (79%) against conference opponents
Over the L3 seasons, USC is 21-9 ATS (70%) as a favorite
[This message was edited by The General on June 28, 2004 at 01:15 PM.]
Major League Baseball Monday
FLORIDA (40 - 35) at ATLANTA (35 - 39) Monday, 6/28/2004 7:35 PM
BRAD PENNY (R) vs. JOHN THOMSON (R)
Line: Atlanta +105
ATLANTA (Ticker) -- Florida salvaged the finale of a three-game interleague series at Tampa Bay with Sunday's 11-4 rout. Juan Pierre and Jeff Conine each drove in three runs. Atlanta is seeking its first three-game winning streak since May 13-15. The Braves scored seven runs in the eighth inning in Sunday's 8-7 comeback victory at Baltimore.
StatFox Super Situations favoring ATLANTA against the money line
* Play Against - Road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (FLORIDA) - starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs last outing, cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games. (147-116 since 1997.) (55.9%, +57.6 units. Rating = 2*)
* Play Against - Road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (FLORIDA) - cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games, starting a pitcher who gave up no earned runs last outing. (65-43 since 1997.) (60.2%, +33.1 units. Rating = 3*)
* Play On - Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (ATLANTA) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 on the season-NL, with a cold starting pitcher- ERA >= 7.00 over his last 5 starts. (37-19 since 1997.) (66.1%, +28 units. Rating = 4*)
The StatFox Game Estimator projects a 4.9-4.1 Atlanta win in this game. Based upon that, the estimated line would be Atlanta –143.
StatFox Matchup Power Trends against similar type opponents favoring ATLANTA to win against the money line
* ATLANTA is 57-29 (+26.4 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start over the last 3 seasons. The average score was ATLANTA 4.6, OPPONENT 3.8 - (Rating = 2*)
* ATLANTA is 6-1 (+5.3 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a starting pitcher whose throws more than 6.5 innings per start this season. The average score was ATLANTA 4.0, OPPONENT 1.6 - (Rating = 0*)
StatFox Situational Power Trends favoring ATLANTA to win against the money line
* PENNY is 2-7 (-7.8 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -125 or more since 1997. (Team's Record) The average score was PENNY 2.9, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 0*)
* THOMSON is 6-1 (+5.7 Units) against the money line vs. division opponents this season. (Team's Record) The average score was THOMSON 6.4, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 0*)
Key Stats and facts
Atlanta comes into this game having won three of its last four games, while Florida has lost three of its last four. Atlanta has gone 15-7 over the last three seasons at home against the Marlins.
BALTIMORE (30 - 41) at KANSAS CITY (28 - 44) Monday, 6/28/2004 8:10 PM
ERIK BEDARD (L) vs. DARRELL MAY (L)
Line: Kansas City -105
KANSAS CITY, Missouri (Ticker) -- The Kansas City Royals continue a 10-game homestand on Monday when they start a four-game series against the Baltimore Orioles. Baltimore is attempting to bounce back from possibly its worst loss of the season. The Orioles blew a 7-0 lead after six innings in Sunday's 8-7 setback to Atlanta. The struggling Orioles bullpen was tagged for seven runs and seven hits in the seventh inning, employing three relievers. Baltimore has lost seven straight series.
StatFox Super Situations favoring KANSAS CITY against the money line
* Play Against - Any team (BALTIMORE) - with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 3 starts, after a game where the bullpen was hit hard for 4 or more runs. (174-137 over the last 5 seasons.) (55.9%, +54.6 units. Rating = 2*)
* Play Against - All favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (BALTIMORE) - with a starting pitcher whose lasts less than 5 innings per start, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 3 starts. (23-8 since 1997.) (74.2%, +19.9 units. Rating = 4*)
The StatFox Game Estimator projects a 5-3.2 Kansas City win in this game. Based upon that projection, the equivalent line would be Kansas City –191.
StatFox Matchup Power Trends against similar type opponents favoring KANSAS CITY to win against the money line
* BALTIMORE is 3-17 (-13.8 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season. The average score was BALTIMORE 4.3, OPPONENT 7.1 - (Rating = 2*)
* MAY is 13-3 (+10.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) The average score was MAY 6.9, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 1*)
StatFox Situational Power Trends favoring KANSAS CITY to win against the money line
* BALTIMORE is 2-10 (-8.3 Units) against the money line in road games against left-handed starters this season. The average score was BALTIMORE 3.0, OPPONENT 6.7 - (Rating = 0*)
* BALTIMORE is 6-18 (-13.4 Units) against the money line in June games this season. The average score was BALTIMORE 4.2, OPPONENT 5.9 - (Rating = 1*)
* MAY is 6-0 (+6.9 Units) against the money line in home games when his team is off 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) The average score was MAY 7.5, OPPONENT 4.5 - (Rating = 0*)
Key Stats and facts
In a battle of left handed starters, Kansas City holds a slight edge in that performance. The Royals are 10-11 against lefties while the O’s are just 7-15. In fact, Baltimore scores just 3.5 rpg in those games. KC also owns a bullpen edge of almost 1.00 ERA so with Bedard averaging just 4.8 innings per start, the Oriole pen could see a lot of innings tonight.
USC Trojans
The only negative about the 2003 USC campaign is that it had to share half of the national title with LSU. The Trojans’ weaker schedule and loss at Cal eventually left them out of the BCS title game and in a Rose Bowl dual with Michigan. They were up to the task against the Wolverines and finished the season at 12-1, covering 11 of those 13 games! For 2004, USC may have to go unscathed or face a similar fate as the BCS formula frowns on soft schedules. USC’s may be the lightest schedule of any serious contender. This team still remains the class of the Pac 10 though after consecutive dominating seasons. QB Matt Leinart is a favorite for the Heisman Trophy and the Trojans boast three all-American candidates on defense. They’ll face a stiff challenge right out of the gate at Virginia Tech.
Key StatFox Handicapping Angles for USC for the 2004 season
Since '00, USC is 15-2 ATS (88%) vs good rushing defenses allowing 120 RYPG or less
Trends hitting over 75% for USC are in abundance after the past two years' runs, so writing about them is not a difficult task. USC has had an incredibly balanced pro style offense in that time. Good run defenses have been overwhelmed by the Trojans' many skills.
* Potential spots for 2004: 10/30 at WaSU, 11/6 at OST
Over the L3 seasons, USC is 17-3 ATS (85%) in the second half of the season
Even in 2001 when USC won just six games, it still closed the season strong. The team has peaked at the end in each of Pete Caroll's three years as coach. The Trojans have exhibited few weaknesses, and its shone through in crucial late season action.
* Potential spots for 2004: any game 10/23 vs WAS or later
USC is 5-14 ATS (26%) in its L19 vs good rushing teams - avg 200 RYPG or more
Not many teams have found what it takes to beat USC in recent years, but those that have been most successful against the Trojans have excelled at running the football. If you look at their three losses in '02 & '03, two have been against capable rushing teams.
* Potential spots for 2004: 8/28 vs VT, 10/9 vs CAL, 11/27 vs ND
StatFox Quick Tips
Over the L3 seasons, USC is 13-0 ATS coming off 2 consecutive covers as a favorite
Over the L3 seasons, USC is 19-5 ATS (79%) against conference opponents
Over the L3 seasons, USC is 21-9 ATS (70%) as a favorite
[This message was edited by The General on June 28, 2004 at 01:15 PM.]
