Farrow's Five: Hottest MLB teams
Johnston Farrow
http://www.covers.com/includes/articles.aspx?theArt=27284&tid=24&t=2
Baseball teams play 162 games a year, but in sports betting, it’s what have you done for me lately.
Amazingly, the most profitable teams in the last 10 games are from the National League and they don’t have outstanding records. Of the top five most profitable teams, the San Diego Padres actually have the best record over the last ten games (46-37).
It usually takes a decent streak before oddsmakers consider moving the lines on a hot or cold team. That explains why teams around .500 are so dangerous. At any given moment, a .500 team can rip off a bunch of wins or losses in a row.
Here’s the top five teams over the last 10 games (not including Wednesday):
1. Pittsurgh Pirates – 10.90 units won
The Pirates are on a roll with 10 wins in their last 11 games. They’ve banked more loot than a Blackbeard recently because they were one of the worst teams in the majors before their current streak and oddsmakers set lines accordingly.
But two of three wins over Cincinnati and sweeps of the Cardinals and Brewers has the Pirates rolling in gold. Oddsmakers had the Pirates as dogs for the first five games of their 10-game win streak, no doubt because of Pittsburgh’s reputation as a loser.
Be wary of the Pirates in the future, however, because their luck is bound to run out eventually. They don’t have the pitching and offense to keep their winning ways alive.
2. San Diego Padres – 7.20 units won
The Padres are the surprise of the National League, sitting atop the NL West over the Giants and the Dodgers.
The reason? Their pitching staff has been shaping into one of the best in the league, ranking second in the MLB with a 3.73 ERA.
David Wells - with his 3.03 ERA - was a huge addition to the starting rotation, which has stayed healthy for the most part. Jake Peavy and Adam Eaton have had great seasons so far and Brian Lawrence has become a dependable starter.
The result of the team cohesiveness is a five-game, Pirates-like win streak that could continue for several more games. But don’t expect too much value on the Padres as oddsmakers wise up to what’s going on out West.
3. Atlanta – 6.25 units won
Here’s a case of a bad team that rises above the obstacles to pull out a couple of wins. Take a closer look at the Braves schedule and it’s merely a good stretch of good situations for Atlanta to cash in.
The Braves took two of three from the Marlins, a team they have dominated this season, they swept the struggling Red Sox in interleague play and now they are in a set with the hopeless Expos.
The streak will dry up when they get to tougher foes, but the Braves could easily pick up some more cash after the All-Star break when they play Montreal again in a four-game home series. The break also gives the numerous injured Atlanta players time to heal.
4. Los Angeles Dodgers – 5.25 units won
The Dodgers do one thing well: They dodge losses. Los Angeles took all of their recent wins by no more than three runs.
L.A. boasts a great defensive corps and the best closer in baseball in Eric Gagne, which makes them dangerous in a division that promotes small ball over the long ball.
The team’s recent success is impressive as it’s come over San Francisco and Anaheim, both of whom lost two of three to the Dodger crew. A series with the snake-bitten Diamondbacks is icing on the cake.
Good value on Los Angeles should continue as they have a tough time stringing together wins.
5. New York Mets – 3.55 units won
The Mets recently earned a lot of dough at the pay window with a series sweep over their cross-town rivals, the Yankees. They also took two of three from Cincinnati.
But New York has big problems winning on the road which will haunt them in upcoming games in Philadelphia and Florida later this week - both breathing down the Mets’ collective neck in the race for the NL East lead.
Spend your money after the All-Star Game when New York welcomes every team from the NL East for an 11-game home stand. But with a 14-13 record against the division, New York’s recent success might only be a happy memory.
Johnston Farrow
http://www.covers.com/includes/articles.aspx?theArt=27284&tid=24&t=2
Baseball teams play 162 games a year, but in sports betting, it’s what have you done for me lately.
Amazingly, the most profitable teams in the last 10 games are from the National League and they don’t have outstanding records. Of the top five most profitable teams, the San Diego Padres actually have the best record over the last ten games (46-37).
It usually takes a decent streak before oddsmakers consider moving the lines on a hot or cold team. That explains why teams around .500 are so dangerous. At any given moment, a .500 team can rip off a bunch of wins or losses in a row.
Here’s the top five teams over the last 10 games (not including Wednesday):
1. Pittsurgh Pirates – 10.90 units won
The Pirates are on a roll with 10 wins in their last 11 games. They’ve banked more loot than a Blackbeard recently because they were one of the worst teams in the majors before their current streak and oddsmakers set lines accordingly.
But two of three wins over Cincinnati and sweeps of the Cardinals and Brewers has the Pirates rolling in gold. Oddsmakers had the Pirates as dogs for the first five games of their 10-game win streak, no doubt because of Pittsburgh’s reputation as a loser.
Be wary of the Pirates in the future, however, because their luck is bound to run out eventually. They don’t have the pitching and offense to keep their winning ways alive.
2. San Diego Padres – 7.20 units won
The Padres are the surprise of the National League, sitting atop the NL West over the Giants and the Dodgers.
The reason? Their pitching staff has been shaping into one of the best in the league, ranking second in the MLB with a 3.73 ERA.
David Wells - with his 3.03 ERA - was a huge addition to the starting rotation, which has stayed healthy for the most part. Jake Peavy and Adam Eaton have had great seasons so far and Brian Lawrence has become a dependable starter.
The result of the team cohesiveness is a five-game, Pirates-like win streak that could continue for several more games. But don’t expect too much value on the Padres as oddsmakers wise up to what’s going on out West.
3. Atlanta – 6.25 units won
Here’s a case of a bad team that rises above the obstacles to pull out a couple of wins. Take a closer look at the Braves schedule and it’s merely a good stretch of good situations for Atlanta to cash in.
The Braves took two of three from the Marlins, a team they have dominated this season, they swept the struggling Red Sox in interleague play and now they are in a set with the hopeless Expos.
The streak will dry up when they get to tougher foes, but the Braves could easily pick up some more cash after the All-Star break when they play Montreal again in a four-game home series. The break also gives the numerous injured Atlanta players time to heal.
4. Los Angeles Dodgers – 5.25 units won
The Dodgers do one thing well: They dodge losses. Los Angeles took all of their recent wins by no more than three runs.
L.A. boasts a great defensive corps and the best closer in baseball in Eric Gagne, which makes them dangerous in a division that promotes small ball over the long ball.
The team’s recent success is impressive as it’s come over San Francisco and Anaheim, both of whom lost two of three to the Dodger crew. A series with the snake-bitten Diamondbacks is icing on the cake.
Good value on Los Angeles should continue as they have a tough time stringing together wins.
5. New York Mets – 3.55 units won
The Mets recently earned a lot of dough at the pay window with a series sweep over their cross-town rivals, the Yankees. They also took two of three from Cincinnati.
But New York has big problems winning on the road which will haunt them in upcoming games in Philadelphia and Florida later this week - both breathing down the Mets’ collective neck in the race for the NL East lead.
Spend your money after the All-Star Game when New York welcomes every team from the NL East for an 11-game home stand. But with a 14-13 record against the division, New York’s recent success might only be a happy memory.
