I thought I'd start posting my picks along with a little analysis on each. I've had great success using data that I have collected on each umpire over the last 8 years. In addition, I use a "ballpark factor" which ranks each ballpark according to its affect on total runs scored. I take the ballpark factor of the home team and subtract the ballpark factor of the ROAD team to get a total ballpark factor for each game. I'll try to keep a running total of my units for the year. Anyway, here goes:
For Thurs, July 8...
Oak/Boston u8.5 +110 (pinny) (3 units) ... Both starting pitchers have yet to have a bad game all year (each had one game in which they gave up 5 runs). The ballpark factor is a +0.37 runs (0.37 more runs will be scored on average by these 2 teams playing in Boston than they would playing in a neutral park). This is compensated by my belief that the ballpark factor for Boston is overrated by the average bettor. Only 0.22 more runs were scored on average in Boston's home games over the last 4 years than were scored in Boston's away games. In addition, both bullpens rank in the upper half the the A.L.
The kicker here is the home plate ump, Bill Miller. Miller has the 2nd highest strikeout to walk ratio of any ump over the last 8 years and his over/under total is scewed heavily toward the unders.
NYM/Phil o10.5 +106 (pinny) (3 units) ... At first glance this seems like a high total for 2 teams that are at the top of the league in ERA and who combine to score only 9.5 runs/game vs right handers. But a closer look reveal a couple of interesting things. The two starters are struggling mightily as of late and both offenses have been tattooing the ball lately - averaging 13 runs/game combined in their last 10 vs righties and nearly 14.5 vs all pitchers total. Add in a ballpark factor of +0.90 and this total could easily climb into the double digits. The best reason for playing this game though is the home plate ump, Gary Cederstrom who has been my 2nd rated over ump in all of baseball over the last 8 years.
Thats all for now, but I am looking at another possible game or 2 later on.
For Thurs, July 8...
Oak/Boston u8.5 +110 (pinny) (3 units) ... Both starting pitchers have yet to have a bad game all year (each had one game in which they gave up 5 runs). The ballpark factor is a +0.37 runs (0.37 more runs will be scored on average by these 2 teams playing in Boston than they would playing in a neutral park). This is compensated by my belief that the ballpark factor for Boston is overrated by the average bettor. Only 0.22 more runs were scored on average in Boston's home games over the last 4 years than were scored in Boston's away games. In addition, both bullpens rank in the upper half the the A.L.
The kicker here is the home plate ump, Bill Miller. Miller has the 2nd highest strikeout to walk ratio of any ump over the last 8 years and his over/under total is scewed heavily toward the unders.
NYM/Phil o10.5 +106 (pinny) (3 units) ... At first glance this seems like a high total for 2 teams that are at the top of the league in ERA and who combine to score only 9.5 runs/game vs right handers. But a closer look reveal a couple of interesting things. The two starters are struggling mightily as of late and both offenses have been tattooing the ball lately - averaging 13 runs/game combined in their last 10 vs righties and nearly 14.5 vs all pitchers total. Add in a ballpark factor of +0.90 and this total could easily climb into the double digits. The best reason for playing this game though is the home plate ump, Gary Cederstrom who has been my 2nd rated over ump in all of baseball over the last 8 years.
Thats all for now, but I am looking at another possible game or 2 later on.
