yesterday 2-1 +2.16 units
Y-T-D (on this site) 3-4 -0.96 units
NY Mets +1.45 over PHILADELPHIA
Here come the Mets. They now sit just a game behind the Phillies for first place and can pull even with a win tonight. They’re hot, they’re seeing beach balls and they’re seemingly hungrier then this host, or perhaps their a flat out better team. Whatever the case, we’re glad to be taking back 45 cents on this red-hot team and like we’ve said many times before, it’s never bad strategy to play hot teams. Not going to concern ourselves too much with this pitching match-up. Winning is highly contagious and right now the Mets are doing just that. Besides, Kevin Millwood isn’t fooling anyone this year. His ERA on the year is a dismal 5.07 in 17 starts, and at home, it’s an even worse 5.29. Furthermore, the Phillies have managed to score just 2 runs in the first two games of this series while the Mets have scored 14. Frankly, we don’t care who’s pitching. We’ve been offered some tremendous value here and we’re stepping in. Play NY Mets +1.45 (Risking 1.6 units).
MILWAUKEE +1.05 over Cincinnati
Reds offense has suddenly gone cold and when that happens it’s not easy to snap out of it. In fact, the Reds have scored just 15 runs in their past 6 games and what makes it worse is that they played those six games in two hitters parks in St. Louis and Cleveland. They’ll now face a Brewers squad that just knocked off the Cubs in three straight and beat Clement, Prior, and Zambrano in doing so. That’s an extremely difficult trifecta, yet the Brewers accomplished it. Back to the Reds. They’ve dropped 5 of 7 and 3 in a row, their bullpen has a road ERA on the year of 5.86, they have a worse record then this host, they are 19-25 on the road, and pitcher Paul Wilson, after a tremendous start, is now pitching like he’s supposed to be. Wilson has an ERA of 5.68 over his last 3 games. Wes Obermueller has not performed well, however, in 12 starts, he has just 4 losses and that’s an indication that the Brewers know they need to score runs when he gets out there and that’s exactly what they do. They may not need much here. Sean Casey is out and you can now add Ryan Freel to that list as he slammed into the fence last night and will not be available tonight. Freel is a tough out and has been especially hot lately. Take him out of the equation and our chances increase even more. Did we mention that the Brewers are 21-12 at home against right-handed starters? Wrong side favored. Play Milwaukee +1.05 (Risking 1.6 units).
Detroit +1.10 over MINNESOTA
Twins have won five out of six, however, Twins backers may have a sense of false security here. They are coming off of series wins over cellar dwellers K.C and Arizona and we don’t put too much value on that. Prior to that, they were easily swept in 3 games by the White Sox and lost 2 out of three to the Brew Crew. They’ll now face a Tigers squad that just scored 19 runs in the past two games in the Bronx. Furthermore, Terry Mulholland will get the start for the Twins and that’s good news for us. Mulholland has made one start this year and it wasn’t pretty. He’s appeared in 22 games out of the pen and those haven’t been pretty either. You like numbers, well here’s a few to ponder. How about the number 64. That’s the number of base-runners that Mulholland has allowed in just 39 innings of work. How about the number 10. That’s the number of times over the past 5 years that Mulholland has switched teams because he can’t pitch and was either released or traded. How about the number 8. That’s Mulholland’s ERA over his past 3 appearances to go along with his 7.32 ERA at home this year. How about the number 3. That’s the number of series wins this year the Twins have against teams above .500 in 11 series. In those series, the Twins have 15 wins in 38 games. Bottom line here is that Mulholland should never be favored over anyone and when we can get a take-back against him you can instantly pencil us in. Play Detroit +1.10 (Risking 1.6 units).
Y-T-D (on this site) 3-4 -0.96 units
NY Mets +1.45 over PHILADELPHIA
Here come the Mets. They now sit just a game behind the Phillies for first place and can pull even with a win tonight. They’re hot, they’re seeing beach balls and they’re seemingly hungrier then this host, or perhaps their a flat out better team. Whatever the case, we’re glad to be taking back 45 cents on this red-hot team and like we’ve said many times before, it’s never bad strategy to play hot teams. Not going to concern ourselves too much with this pitching match-up. Winning is highly contagious and right now the Mets are doing just that. Besides, Kevin Millwood isn’t fooling anyone this year. His ERA on the year is a dismal 5.07 in 17 starts, and at home, it’s an even worse 5.29. Furthermore, the Phillies have managed to score just 2 runs in the first two games of this series while the Mets have scored 14. Frankly, we don’t care who’s pitching. We’ve been offered some tremendous value here and we’re stepping in. Play NY Mets +1.45 (Risking 1.6 units).
MILWAUKEE +1.05 over Cincinnati
Reds offense has suddenly gone cold and when that happens it’s not easy to snap out of it. In fact, the Reds have scored just 15 runs in their past 6 games and what makes it worse is that they played those six games in two hitters parks in St. Louis and Cleveland. They’ll now face a Brewers squad that just knocked off the Cubs in three straight and beat Clement, Prior, and Zambrano in doing so. That’s an extremely difficult trifecta, yet the Brewers accomplished it. Back to the Reds. They’ve dropped 5 of 7 and 3 in a row, their bullpen has a road ERA on the year of 5.86, they have a worse record then this host, they are 19-25 on the road, and pitcher Paul Wilson, after a tremendous start, is now pitching like he’s supposed to be. Wilson has an ERA of 5.68 over his last 3 games. Wes Obermueller has not performed well, however, in 12 starts, he has just 4 losses and that’s an indication that the Brewers know they need to score runs when he gets out there and that’s exactly what they do. They may not need much here. Sean Casey is out and you can now add Ryan Freel to that list as he slammed into the fence last night and will not be available tonight. Freel is a tough out and has been especially hot lately. Take him out of the equation and our chances increase even more. Did we mention that the Brewers are 21-12 at home against right-handed starters? Wrong side favored. Play Milwaukee +1.05 (Risking 1.6 units).
Detroit +1.10 over MINNESOTA
Twins have won five out of six, however, Twins backers may have a sense of false security here. They are coming off of series wins over cellar dwellers K.C and Arizona and we don’t put too much value on that. Prior to that, they were easily swept in 3 games by the White Sox and lost 2 out of three to the Brew Crew. They’ll now face a Tigers squad that just scored 19 runs in the past two games in the Bronx. Furthermore, Terry Mulholland will get the start for the Twins and that’s good news for us. Mulholland has made one start this year and it wasn’t pretty. He’s appeared in 22 games out of the pen and those haven’t been pretty either. You like numbers, well here’s a few to ponder. How about the number 64. That’s the number of base-runners that Mulholland has allowed in just 39 innings of work. How about the number 10. That’s the number of times over the past 5 years that Mulholland has switched teams because he can’t pitch and was either released or traded. How about the number 8. That’s Mulholland’s ERA over his past 3 appearances to go along with his 7.32 ERA at home this year. How about the number 3. That’s the number of series wins this year the Twins have against teams above .500 in 11 series. In those series, the Twins have 15 wins in 38 games. Bottom line here is that Mulholland should never be favored over anyone and when we can get a take-back against him you can instantly pencil us in. Play Detroit +1.10 (Risking 1.6 units).
