Shouldnt you always be on a plus money side ?

WorldNumberOne · Jun 24, 2004

Since the start of the baseball season here are some numbers that I would think show you should always be on a plus money side.

APRIL TOTALS
DOG 163 47% dog won outright
R/L 138 40% fav won by 2 or more
M/L 44 13% fav won by 1 run
345

MAY TOTALS
DOG 180 44%
R/L 158 39%
M/L 71 17%
409

JUNE
DOG 134 45%
R/L 116 38%
M/L 51 17%
301

These numbers show that the most frequent winning sides have been the dog and the run line favorite. at about an 85% clip all year.

basically what i'm driving at is if you like the favored team , why not just play them on the run line and get the plus payoff.

any thoughts ? am i way off base here ?

Co-Captain · Jun 24, 2004

Aloha King...interesting stats....Thanks for sharing your knowledge and information with us....appreciated...GL to you and Aloha CC.

WorldNumberOne · Jun 24, 2004

let me rephrase . you shouldnt ALWAYS do anything.

maybe 80 to 90 % of time be on the plus side.

slapshot · Jun 24, 2004

maxdemo · Jun 24, 2004

I think the same. You risk less on the run line with a greater reward. I have noticed that most games are not 1 run affairs and that you would make more money in the long run taking those odds on selected games....and Selected is the key word here.

WorldNumberOne · Jun 24, 2004

youre gonna get clipped several times with a 1 run winner laying 1.5 .

but like you say "selected" is key.

the dog side has to be the column that everybody should look at first when scrolling down their daily card.

juice is the enemy.

MadCapper · Jun 24, 2004

KING,

I would have to agree with you. I am up 30 units betting + money.

-MC

MOBboss · Jun 24, 2004

best base season for me in several years.hope it doesnt stop.
MOBboss

NEWPORT · Jun 24, 2004

NEWPORT MUST TAKE CREDIT FOR ALL THIS ENAMORED LOVE WITH PLUS MONEY SIDES

I have preached this from day 1.

Dog Money lines, Dogs on the Run Lines, I mean when you call something a PLUS side, all you are doing is taking advantage of the different types of lines that offshore provides, and your turning everything into a dog play, even if the real line is even money. I have posts on 2 forums explaining this theory and except for about 5 premier pitchers, ODDSMAKERS are working with a formula that has just as much chance being wrong as right. So the CREATIVITY is in OUR FAVOR. I am UP very nicely this YEAR with ALL that you are visualizing. What you ALL are really saying is that you have stepped out on the town a little bit, and ARE SEEING THE VALUE OF TAKING SOME RISKS IN BASEBALL.

EXTRA EXTRA READ all about it!!!!

conservative Baseball handicappers are getting JIGGY with it. hahahahaha

Also All you all are REALLY SAYING is

EVERY TIME THE ODDSMAKER MAKES A BASEBALL LINE.........HE IS GAMBLING TOO!!!!

Now imagine plus money sides in "True Odds" parlays. This is why I appreciate all the strong DD many of YOU put into seletions. And you really care about your units. Baseball is about multiplication of DOGS ( plus sides).

THE NEWPORT REPORT

MadCapper · Jun 24, 2004

NEWPORT,

SURE IS BUDDY!

There is a guy documented 6 games under .500 for the season but still up 44 freeking units.

And NEPENTHE is 8 games under .500 and up 38 units right here at the Rx!!

I myself am only 15 games over .500 and up 30 units.

On the other had there is someone here who is only 14 games under .500 but is down over 87 units.

That showes the importance of betting some PLUS money plays. Nothing wrong with throwing in some favs, but playing 90% favs or even 70% favs will ultimately kill you.

-MC

rscl31 · Jun 24, 2004

I've been playing the plus money for the last two weeks, nothing but (well i played a few favs and they lost).

This is def the way to go.

ClayHenry · Jun 24, 2004

definately the way to go, I've been surprised by how many people don't play the favs on the RL.

BTW- I'm 28 games under .500 and still up almost 18 units.

NEWPORT · Jun 24, 2004

The Key word is CREATIVITYwih your selections, Going in you know you will LOSE plays, but playing CREATIVILY with your selections allows for your LOSSES not to be FELT as much.

Also when it comes to FAVS, you also have the opportunity to play -1/2 run line in first 5 innings which reduces your price, and on Run lines for the game -1.5. I have noticed that looking at first 5 innings at -1/2 is a great way to reduce a HIGH favorite price, and still get the MOST of your HIGH priced pitcher in the EARLY innings. It also reduces down the chance on a HIGH priced favorite to become a no decision in the later innings when a bullpen blows a lead.

IT IS ALL ABOUT MIXING AND MATCHING AND being Creative. I actually think the word RISK is not even needed, it is more about CREATIVITY.

and even something more to think about,

What SPORT that we wager on do you have +170 or better play hit as much than in baseball. NONE maybe the NBA and college football. All I know, is I have a downer when baseball season ends because I LOSE so much value.

I am a better NFL and CFB hanicapper than any sport when you are just making selections. But I make more money in the baseball season, even though I LOSE more of my selections.

It all COMES down to ODDSMAKERS and they are forced to have to use formulas, and these forumalas are more accurate in some sports than in others.

BASEBALL CREATIVITY DOES REQUIRE RESILLIANCY

I am licking my wounds over a MAJOR win I was close to last night. The fact that the dodgers game stayed 3-2 throughout, is unbelievable and cost me a major hit last night. I had parlays with both the dodgers and the giants alive last night, and all I needed was one of them to win and the total gove over 8. Oh well, RESILLIANCY

WorldNumberOne · Jun 24, 2004

nice to see all the replys . i too hate it when baseball ends.

i love the daily routine and all the different directions one can head.

jwblue · Jun 24, 2004

KING0818:

Do you have a breakdown of the RL visiting favorites and RL home favorites? Is there a trend of the RL visiting favorites teams covering the RL more so than RL home favorites?

IS

WorldNumberOne · Jun 24, 2004

IS

as far as alt. runlines go all i have are the numbers for June. i started to them June 1st.

i do have every days lines printed from day 1 of the season . i use them as work sheets.

olympic puts their lines up in a format that prints on one page for me after changing my page margins.

i havent tracked just visiting favorites on the run line. i can ..

kidslick · Jul 7, 2004

barman · Jul 7, 2004

It's clear that we need to for sure at least AVERAGE plus money or very close....meaning for every -140, we also play a +140.

We've exerted more care than ever this MLB season, having only made two plays over -170 and both were winners so far.

We'll be doing some review asap to get an average price paid for our many MLB wagers this season and will post it when complete.

exilarch · Jul 8, 2004

Plus money works in hockey betting also. There was a capper here by the name of Bobby Bryde, who always preached that plus money in hockey is the way to go.

truelyhandicapping · Jul 8, 2004

great work king.

i've been taking almost all run lines when i do bet a big favorite, and still taking the alt run line for all dogs even if i bet the fav.

only problem is 1 run games. haven't run into to many though that i have bet.

*********i counted all of last years home dogs and you would of won roughly 2500 at $100 plays.

it would seem like suicide, but has been paying off very well.