First losing day for me in a week. Figures it was when I decided to post for the first time all year. Oh well, not gonna dwell on it. Two plays for Saturday...
Ariz +134 over SF (3 units) ... Webb is the far better pitcher in this matchup between 2 righties, even though his record doesn't show it. After a shakey start to the year Webb has turned his season around. He has had 7 consecutive outings where he has given up 3 ER's or less. Bad defense (7 unearned runs) and poor offensive support has (2 runs or less in 5 of his last 8 starts) has kept him from winning more. Webb has yet to have a bad outing vs. the Giants: career vs SF ... 34 inn, 21 H, 12 ER, 38 K's. Tomko has average stats pitching in one of the friendliest parks in baseball for pitchers, whereas Webb's stats are much better despite pitching in one of the toughest parks in baseball. SF's bullpen has slightly better ERA, but once again these stats are skewed in SF's favor because of the disparity in home fields. Because of this I actually give the D-Backs the advantage here, too. Offensively, I also give the edge to the D-Backs - Arizona scores 0.3 runs/game more vs righties than lefties and the Giants score 1/4 run/game less vs the righthanders. Finally, behind the plate is Terry Craft. Craft is what I call an anti-homer. Plays made on the road team when Craft has been behind the plate over the last 8 years have returned a handsome amount. A hundred dollar better has made an average of $14.40/game.
Oak -120 over Cleve (3 units) ... Mulder(L) has been a pitcher of consistency this year and especially of late. He has allowed 4 runs only once in his last 10 outings, and in addition he has failed to go at least 7 innings only once in that time. On the contrary, you never know what you're gonna get with Sabathia(L). 5 of his last 10 outings have been great (2 ER's in all of them combined) and the other 5 have been disasters (23 earned runs allowed). Both pens I rate about even, but they are a definite step down from the elite starters. But since Mulder has consistently pitched into the 7th and beyond, I give the A's the edge here. Offensively the edge goes to the A's also. They score 0.6 runs more vs lefties than righties, whereas the Indians struggle vs the southpaws (nearly 1/2 run/game less). The clincher is the man behind the plate though. I have Eric Cooper rated as the number 1 anti-homer umpire in all of baseball. $100 players have won an average of an amazing $21.30/game in Coopers appearances behind the plate over the years. Road teams actually have a winning record (113-102) with Cooper behind the plate since 1997.
Ariz +134 over SF (3 units) ... Webb is the far better pitcher in this matchup between 2 righties, even though his record doesn't show it. After a shakey start to the year Webb has turned his season around. He has had 7 consecutive outings where he has given up 3 ER's or less. Bad defense (7 unearned runs) and poor offensive support has (2 runs or less in 5 of his last 8 starts) has kept him from winning more. Webb has yet to have a bad outing vs. the Giants: career vs SF ... 34 inn, 21 H, 12 ER, 38 K's. Tomko has average stats pitching in one of the friendliest parks in baseball for pitchers, whereas Webb's stats are much better despite pitching in one of the toughest parks in baseball. SF's bullpen has slightly better ERA, but once again these stats are skewed in SF's favor because of the disparity in home fields. Because of this I actually give the D-Backs the advantage here, too. Offensively, I also give the edge to the D-Backs - Arizona scores 0.3 runs/game more vs righties than lefties and the Giants score 1/4 run/game less vs the righthanders. Finally, behind the plate is Terry Craft. Craft is what I call an anti-homer. Plays made on the road team when Craft has been behind the plate over the last 8 years have returned a handsome amount. A hundred dollar better has made an average of $14.40/game.
Oak -120 over Cleve (3 units) ... Mulder(L) has been a pitcher of consistency this year and especially of late. He has allowed 4 runs only once in his last 10 outings, and in addition he has failed to go at least 7 innings only once in that time. On the contrary, you never know what you're gonna get with Sabathia(L). 5 of his last 10 outings have been great (2 ER's in all of them combined) and the other 5 have been disasters (23 earned runs allowed). Both pens I rate about even, but they are a definite step down from the elite starters. But since Mulder has consistently pitched into the 7th and beyond, I give the A's the edge here. Offensively the edge goes to the A's also. They score 0.6 runs more vs lefties than righties, whereas the Indians struggle vs the southpaws (nearly 1/2 run/game less). The clincher is the man behind the plate though. I have Eric Cooper rated as the number 1 anti-homer umpire in all of baseball. $100 players have won an average of an amazing $21.30/game in Coopers appearances behind the plate over the years. Road teams actually have a winning record (113-102) with Cooper behind the plate since 1997.
