Yesterday 3-1 +4.35 units
Y-T-D (on this site) 13-17 (-0.44 units)
San Diego +1.32 over HOUSTON
Not about to pass up a tag again against this Astros team that’s getting way too much respect for doing absolutely nothing. They looked awful again last night in a 5-1 loss to this intruder and once again they looked completely out of focus. The box score says one error, however, a bunt pop-up by pitcher Jake Peavy in the second inning could have been fielded easily only the whole infield stood around watching it and as a result Peavy was safe at first. Two batters later, Loretta cleared the bases and it was 3-0 when Pettitte should have been out of the inning. It doesn’t show up in the boxscore as an error but trust me, three guys, the pitcher, catcher, and first basemen all could have caught it only they were all too busy staring at one another. The Astros lost for the seventh time in nine games, dropping to 44-45 and falling under .500 for the first time since they were 1-2 on April 7. Houston also fell a season-high 12 games behind NL Central-leading St. Louis. It’ll be Oswalt versus Wells here and both these chuckers need no introductions. They can both bring it and can throw a gem at any time. Having said that, the Astros bullpen is ugly, the team is in a serious funk, they are seeing BB’s at the plate and if this one is close going to the late innings, are chances increase dramatically because of said bullpen. Additionally, against Wells and his eight walks in 96 innings, the Astros are going to have to hit themselves on base and they haven’t shown an ability to do that recently. Oh yeah, one other thing to note, the tag. Play San Diego +1.32 (Risking 1.6 units).
PITTSBURGH +1.15 over Florida
Let’s see if we have this straight. One team is ice cold having lost 8 of its past 12 and 12 of it’s past 18 while the other one is red hot having won 13 of it’s last 17 and eight straight at home. I’m not talking about the Fish here. Just like the D-Rays in June, the Pirates are getting little respect, yet all they do is keep cashing tickets for their backers. See little that suggests things will be different here. Kip Wells can usually be relied upon for a decent outing and in fact, has mastered this visitor, having posted a 3-1 record and a puny 1.87 ERA against them. Wells has pitched a combined 20 innings over his last three, having surrendered just one bomb over that stretch. Wells has pitched into the seventh inning in three of his last four games and the other games he didn’t do that in he pitched a full six innings. Carl Pavano is having a very good year, however, he went to the all-star game for the first time in his career and as a result, received no break. After being in the majors for many years and winning a World Series last year and coming off his first all-star game, this start may be anti-climatic for him and there’s a good chance we could catch him out of focus here. Either way, playing hot versus cold is never bad strategy and a take-back here on the Pirates, in their own crib, should be considered a gift. Play Pittsburgh +1.15 (Risking 1.6 units).
Montreal +1.85 over ATLANTA
Price here on Tony Armas Jr. cannot be ignored and we find tremendous value here on him. Armas didn’t make his first start of the year until June 1 and after his first four starts, his ERA was 8.31. He’s cut that in half in his past 4 starts. He’s been getting stronger with each outing and in fact, has pitched brilliantly over his past 3 games. Armas has surrendered just 11 hits, one earned run, and zero jacks over that stretch for an ERA of 0.53 covering 17 innings. If value is what you seek, then you need not look further then this game. Russ Ortiz is by no means unbeatable. He’s a good pitcher and is on a good run right now. However, this play is not about going against Russ Ortiz. This play is all about taking an extremely hot pitcher, with a ton of talent, with an outrageous tag on him. Huge overlay. Play Montreal +1.85 (Risking 1.6 units).
Toronto +1.20 over TEXAS
It’s been said before that numbers don’t lie and while that’s true, they don’t always tell the whole story either. Such is the case with the Rangers starter today, Ricardo Rodriguez, or R-Rod if you wish. He comes into this game with a 2-0 record and a 1.04 ERA in 3 starts, however, a closer look reveals that those numbers are very misleading. He’s had just one good outing in 3 appearances although the numbers don’t reflect that. In two appearances against Seattle and Houston he was banged around to the tune of 10 hits and 7 walks in just 8 innings of work. The inability of both the Mariners and Astros to cash in base-runners gives the false impression that Rodriguez was effective when in fact, he was not. Combined in those aforementioned 8 innings, the Astros and Mariners stranded a total of 17 base-runners and cashed in just two. Fact is, Rodriguez is a minor-leaguer who’s made just 24 appearances in his three years of major league service. At the age of 26, he’s never been able to stay up at this level. In addition, the Blue Jays have both Carlos Delgado and Vernon Wells back in the line-up and that makes them a very dangerous foe indeed. Wells was activated before last night’s game and went 3-3. Ted Lilly is 5-2 on the road with a 3.49 ERA and the Rangers are much better against righties then they are against lefties as their 13-14 mark against southpaws will attest to. Pitchers like Rodriguez, with just 7 wins in 24 career starts, do not warrant this chalk status and this host is ripe to get beat here. Play Toronto +1.20 (Risking 1.6 units).
Y-T-D (on this site) 13-17 (-0.44 units)
San Diego +1.32 over HOUSTON
Not about to pass up a tag again against this Astros team that’s getting way too much respect for doing absolutely nothing. They looked awful again last night in a 5-1 loss to this intruder and once again they looked completely out of focus. The box score says one error, however, a bunt pop-up by pitcher Jake Peavy in the second inning could have been fielded easily only the whole infield stood around watching it and as a result Peavy was safe at first. Two batters later, Loretta cleared the bases and it was 3-0 when Pettitte should have been out of the inning. It doesn’t show up in the boxscore as an error but trust me, three guys, the pitcher, catcher, and first basemen all could have caught it only they were all too busy staring at one another. The Astros lost for the seventh time in nine games, dropping to 44-45 and falling under .500 for the first time since they were 1-2 on April 7. Houston also fell a season-high 12 games behind NL Central-leading St. Louis. It’ll be Oswalt versus Wells here and both these chuckers need no introductions. They can both bring it and can throw a gem at any time. Having said that, the Astros bullpen is ugly, the team is in a serious funk, they are seeing BB’s at the plate and if this one is close going to the late innings, are chances increase dramatically because of said bullpen. Additionally, against Wells and his eight walks in 96 innings, the Astros are going to have to hit themselves on base and they haven’t shown an ability to do that recently. Oh yeah, one other thing to note, the tag. Play San Diego +1.32 (Risking 1.6 units).
PITTSBURGH +1.15 over Florida
Let’s see if we have this straight. One team is ice cold having lost 8 of its past 12 and 12 of it’s past 18 while the other one is red hot having won 13 of it’s last 17 and eight straight at home. I’m not talking about the Fish here. Just like the D-Rays in June, the Pirates are getting little respect, yet all they do is keep cashing tickets for their backers. See little that suggests things will be different here. Kip Wells can usually be relied upon for a decent outing and in fact, has mastered this visitor, having posted a 3-1 record and a puny 1.87 ERA against them. Wells has pitched a combined 20 innings over his last three, having surrendered just one bomb over that stretch. Wells has pitched into the seventh inning in three of his last four games and the other games he didn’t do that in he pitched a full six innings. Carl Pavano is having a very good year, however, he went to the all-star game for the first time in his career and as a result, received no break. After being in the majors for many years and winning a World Series last year and coming off his first all-star game, this start may be anti-climatic for him and there’s a good chance we could catch him out of focus here. Either way, playing hot versus cold is never bad strategy and a take-back here on the Pirates, in their own crib, should be considered a gift. Play Pittsburgh +1.15 (Risking 1.6 units).
Montreal +1.85 over ATLANTA
Price here on Tony Armas Jr. cannot be ignored and we find tremendous value here on him. Armas didn’t make his first start of the year until June 1 and after his first four starts, his ERA was 8.31. He’s cut that in half in his past 4 starts. He’s been getting stronger with each outing and in fact, has pitched brilliantly over his past 3 games. Armas has surrendered just 11 hits, one earned run, and zero jacks over that stretch for an ERA of 0.53 covering 17 innings. If value is what you seek, then you need not look further then this game. Russ Ortiz is by no means unbeatable. He’s a good pitcher and is on a good run right now. However, this play is not about going against Russ Ortiz. This play is all about taking an extremely hot pitcher, with a ton of talent, with an outrageous tag on him. Huge overlay. Play Montreal +1.85 (Risking 1.6 units).
Toronto +1.20 over TEXAS
It’s been said before that numbers don’t lie and while that’s true, they don’t always tell the whole story either. Such is the case with the Rangers starter today, Ricardo Rodriguez, or R-Rod if you wish. He comes into this game with a 2-0 record and a 1.04 ERA in 3 starts, however, a closer look reveals that those numbers are very misleading. He’s had just one good outing in 3 appearances although the numbers don’t reflect that. In two appearances against Seattle and Houston he was banged around to the tune of 10 hits and 7 walks in just 8 innings of work. The inability of both the Mariners and Astros to cash in base-runners gives the false impression that Rodriguez was effective when in fact, he was not. Combined in those aforementioned 8 innings, the Astros and Mariners stranded a total of 17 base-runners and cashed in just two. Fact is, Rodriguez is a minor-leaguer who’s made just 24 appearances in his three years of major league service. At the age of 26, he’s never been able to stay up at this level. In addition, the Blue Jays have both Carlos Delgado and Vernon Wells back in the line-up and that makes them a very dangerous foe indeed. Wells was activated before last night’s game and went 3-3. Ted Lilly is 5-2 on the road with a 3.49 ERA and the Rangers are much better against righties then they are against lefties as their 13-14 mark against southpaws will attest to. Pitchers like Rodriguez, with just 7 wins in 24 career starts, do not warrant this chalk status and this host is ripe to get beat here. Play Toronto +1.20 (Risking 1.6 units).
