Yesterday 2-1 +2.96 units
Y-T-D (on this site) 10-16 (-4.79 units)
San Diego +1.22 over HOUSTON
Astros are favored here because why? This is a team that has made losing a habit and while the whole baseball world tries to figure out what’s gone wrong, it’s not rocket science finding the answer. They’re old, they’re slow, they have a brutal bullpen, and they have one player, Craig Biggio, batting over .300. For a team that plays in a serious hitters park, their numbers should resemble that of the Colorado Rockies, however, it’s not even close. In seven of their past eight games, they’ve hit under .225. In four of those seven they’ve hit, collectively, under .165. The Astros offensive totals, as a team, are embarrassing and don’t expect much to change in the second half. Biggio, Bagwell, Kent, Ausmus, Clemens, Orlando Palmeiro, and Andy Pettite are all a half year older and the latter will go tonight. His most recent outing was the only time in 10 starts he's pitched more than six innings all year. He has a 6.39 ERA at Minute Maid and has not looked comfortable on that mound all year. Padres will counter with Jake Peavy and he’s been one of the more reliable hurlers in the game this year. In 63 innings of work the opposition has gone yard on him just four times. Peavy has a road ERA of 1.88 and on the year his ERA is 2.43. Lastly, the Padres are 8-3 on the road against left-handed starters. Sorry, but it’s going to take a lot more then a new manager to fix what ails this host. This pooch is a live one. Play San Diego +1.22 (Risking 1.6 units).
KANSAS CITY/Minnesota over 8½ +1.05
In the American League, it’s not often, unless the game is in Seattle, that you find a total of 8½. Pedro Martinez, Tim Hudson, Curt Schilling, Mark Mulder, Roy Halliday and just a handful more are some of the few pitchers featured where you’ll find a game with a total like this, not Darrell May and Brad Radke. Not only is May not very good, the Royals bullpen is also a huge concern. In addition, Shannon Stewart is back in the leadoff spot for the Twins and his presence makes a huge difference. The Royals have been struggling all year offensively, however, they did have 11 hits last night, all singles, and have hit the ball very well in three of their past four games. Both these pitchers give up a ton of hits (May, 127 hits in 103 innings and Radke, 136 in 124 innings), and May has been tagged for 19 jacks already. May has a 5.40 ERA at Kaufman Stadium and Radke has just 5 wins in 19 starts. It’s a rare occasion when two pitchers like this both come up roses in the same game and I have no idea how this one is going under. Play it over 8½ +1.05 (Risking 1.6 units).
San Francisco +1.05 over COLORADO
Want no part of Shawn Estes right now or any time for that matter, as the dish keeps moving around on him. Coors Field is the last place in the world that you want to be issuing free passes and Estes has made a habit of doing just that all year. He’s walked 61 batters in 110 innings and comes into this contest with a 6.85 ERA at home. Furthermore, the Giants have feasted on southpaws all year as their 20-9 record would attest to. He’s also allowed 26 hits and 17 earned runs over his past 3 starts, covering 17 innings, and the Rockies are going to have to supply him with huge run support here to get him another “W”. Even if that comes to pass, it still may not be enough. Giants are heating up again with four straight wins and when we can get a take-back against Estes, you can pencil us in. No exception here. Play San Francisco +1.05 (Risking 1.6 units).
Cleveland –1½ +1.45 over SEATTLE
The Mariners are cleaning house a little early but the fact remains that this team is in a bit of a panic right now. Only a masterful outing from Joel Pineiro prevented the Mariners from dropping their tenth straight last night. Prior to last night’s game, the Mariners took veteran John Olerud off the active roster. Bad move. Olerud wasn’t the problem and he can only help a team, not hurt them. Seattle also designated catcher Pat Borders for assignment, called up infielder Bucky Jacobsen from Triple-A Tacoma and activated catcher Miguel Olivo from the disabled list before Thursday's game. Yeah, that should help. Olivo is a career .244 hitter and Jacobsen is 30 years old and has never played a major league game. The team also released Rich Aurilia and traded Freddy Garcia and catcher Ben Davis. Mariners are 2-9 this year at Safeco against lefties and will face one here in Cliff Lee. Lee is 9-1 with a 3.77 ERA and the team is 13-5 when he starts. He’s been rock solid all year. Additionally, the Indians are a team on the rise. They have a ton of talent and in fact, sent 5 regulars to the all-star game. This team does everything well and will be a factor for years to come. They’ll face Travis Blackley and he has not been sharp since being called up from the minors. He’s made just two starts and not even Safeco Field could make him look good. In 10 innings of work, he surrendered 13 hits, 2 bombs, 5 walks and 9 earned runs for a 7.59 ERA. Not crazy about laying 1½ runs at this venue, however, the Indians are very capable of putting up some runs in this spot and it shouldn’t take many to get us to the cashiers booth. Play Cleveland –1½ +1.45 (Risking 1.6 units).
Y-T-D (on this site) 10-16 (-4.79 units)
San Diego +1.22 over HOUSTON
Astros are favored here because why? This is a team that has made losing a habit and while the whole baseball world tries to figure out what’s gone wrong, it’s not rocket science finding the answer. They’re old, they’re slow, they have a brutal bullpen, and they have one player, Craig Biggio, batting over .300. For a team that plays in a serious hitters park, their numbers should resemble that of the Colorado Rockies, however, it’s not even close. In seven of their past eight games, they’ve hit under .225. In four of those seven they’ve hit, collectively, under .165. The Astros offensive totals, as a team, are embarrassing and don’t expect much to change in the second half. Biggio, Bagwell, Kent, Ausmus, Clemens, Orlando Palmeiro, and Andy Pettite are all a half year older and the latter will go tonight. His most recent outing was the only time in 10 starts he's pitched more than six innings all year. He has a 6.39 ERA at Minute Maid and has not looked comfortable on that mound all year. Padres will counter with Jake Peavy and he’s been one of the more reliable hurlers in the game this year. In 63 innings of work the opposition has gone yard on him just four times. Peavy has a road ERA of 1.88 and on the year his ERA is 2.43. Lastly, the Padres are 8-3 on the road against left-handed starters. Sorry, but it’s going to take a lot more then a new manager to fix what ails this host. This pooch is a live one. Play San Diego +1.22 (Risking 1.6 units).
KANSAS CITY/Minnesota over 8½ +1.05
In the American League, it’s not often, unless the game is in Seattle, that you find a total of 8½. Pedro Martinez, Tim Hudson, Curt Schilling, Mark Mulder, Roy Halliday and just a handful more are some of the few pitchers featured where you’ll find a game with a total like this, not Darrell May and Brad Radke. Not only is May not very good, the Royals bullpen is also a huge concern. In addition, Shannon Stewart is back in the leadoff spot for the Twins and his presence makes a huge difference. The Royals have been struggling all year offensively, however, they did have 11 hits last night, all singles, and have hit the ball very well in three of their past four games. Both these pitchers give up a ton of hits (May, 127 hits in 103 innings and Radke, 136 in 124 innings), and May has been tagged for 19 jacks already. May has a 5.40 ERA at Kaufman Stadium and Radke has just 5 wins in 19 starts. It’s a rare occasion when two pitchers like this both come up roses in the same game and I have no idea how this one is going under. Play it over 8½ +1.05 (Risking 1.6 units).
San Francisco +1.05 over COLORADO
Want no part of Shawn Estes right now or any time for that matter, as the dish keeps moving around on him. Coors Field is the last place in the world that you want to be issuing free passes and Estes has made a habit of doing just that all year. He’s walked 61 batters in 110 innings and comes into this contest with a 6.85 ERA at home. Furthermore, the Giants have feasted on southpaws all year as their 20-9 record would attest to. He’s also allowed 26 hits and 17 earned runs over his past 3 starts, covering 17 innings, and the Rockies are going to have to supply him with huge run support here to get him another “W”. Even if that comes to pass, it still may not be enough. Giants are heating up again with four straight wins and when we can get a take-back against Estes, you can pencil us in. No exception here. Play San Francisco +1.05 (Risking 1.6 units).
Cleveland –1½ +1.45 over SEATTLE
The Mariners are cleaning house a little early but the fact remains that this team is in a bit of a panic right now. Only a masterful outing from Joel Pineiro prevented the Mariners from dropping their tenth straight last night. Prior to last night’s game, the Mariners took veteran John Olerud off the active roster. Bad move. Olerud wasn’t the problem and he can only help a team, not hurt them. Seattle also designated catcher Pat Borders for assignment, called up infielder Bucky Jacobsen from Triple-A Tacoma and activated catcher Miguel Olivo from the disabled list before Thursday's game. Yeah, that should help. Olivo is a career .244 hitter and Jacobsen is 30 years old and has never played a major league game. The team also released Rich Aurilia and traded Freddy Garcia and catcher Ben Davis. Mariners are 2-9 this year at Safeco against lefties and will face one here in Cliff Lee. Lee is 9-1 with a 3.77 ERA and the team is 13-5 when he starts. He’s been rock solid all year. Additionally, the Indians are a team on the rise. They have a ton of talent and in fact, sent 5 regulars to the all-star game. This team does everything well and will be a factor for years to come. They’ll face Travis Blackley and he has not been sharp since being called up from the minors. He’s made just two starts and not even Safeco Field could make him look good. In 10 innings of work, he surrendered 13 hits, 2 bombs, 5 walks and 9 earned runs for a 7.59 ERA. Not crazy about laying 1½ runs at this venue, however, the Indians are very capable of putting up some runs in this spot and it shouldn’t take many to get us to the cashiers booth. Play Cleveland –1½ +1.45 (Risking 1.6 units).
