Yesterday 1-3 -2.36 units
Y-T-D (on this site) 17-23 (-3.73 units)
Florida +1.25 over PHILADELPHIA
Marlins come into this series having beaten the Mets two straight and now will face a team that they are extremely confident against. The Fish are in the Phillies collective heads and psychologically the Marlins have a big edge. The Phillies haven’t beaten them this year in six tries and last year their inability to beat the Marlins cost them the NL crown. Furthermore, we’re going with the more effective hurler here as Kevin Millwood has been struggling all year, especially at home where his ERA is 5.43. A.J. Burnett will go for the Marlins and he got off to a late start after spending the first two months of the season on the DL. You’re going to look at Burnett’s stats and see unimpressive numbers but don’t be fooled by his 1-4 record and 4.86 ERA. As we mentioned earlier, when Burnett’s season started he was a step or two behind everyone else and as a result he struggled in June. July has been much different. The opposition is hitting just .247 against him this month and he’s averaging nine k’s per nine innings and 0.92 walks over nine innings. He was hit pretty hard in his last game against the Pirates, however, Pittsburgh is hot as hell and that was just one game. Fact is, Burnett can pitch, he recently three hit the Rangers in seven innings and if the Marlins are going to make a move there isn’t a team they’d rather be facing then this one. Play Florida +1.25 (Risking 1.6 units).
Pittsburgh +1.35 over ATLANTA
How can you not take the Pirates here? Any take-back with Kris Benson on the mound against average pitchers has got to be considered the prudent move and this one’s no different. With the trade deadline looming, Benson will make what could be one of his last starts for the streaking Pirates. Benson will become a free agent after this season and the Pirates will most likely not be able to pay to keep him, making him one of he most sought-after players in the trade market this season and rightfully so. All he’s done is yield two or fewer earned runs in all but one of his last six starts. He has gone at least seven innings in nine straight starts and hasn't allowed a homer in 60 innings. Pirates have now won 16 of their past 21 and will face Paul Byrd here. Byrd’s best asset is his ability to throw strikes as seldom does he issue a walk, however, his velocity is average at best and he is very hittable. He averages just over five innings per start and over his last three, true to form, he’s lasted a combined 15 innings, allowing 18 hits and seven earned runs over that span for an ERA of 4.20. Everything points to this doggy and consider the tag a gift. Play Pittsburgh +1.35 (Risking 1.6 units).
Montreal +1.45 over NY METS
Good time as any to step in against the Mets. Team has dropped four of their past five and more concerning then that is they allowed the slumping Marlins to come into their crib and sweep a crucial two game series in typical Mets fashion. The pressure mounts in this media hotbed as the last place Expos come to town. When you wager against the Expos you’re always going to pay a premium and this game is a prime example of that. John Patterson is not exactly a household name but take note of this guy because he’s going to be around for years to come providing he stays healthy. Patterson will make just his sixth start of the season and will face a Mets lineup minus Mike Piazza. That can’t hurt our chances and neither can the fact that Patterson can pitch. He’s already struck out 26 batters in 27 innings of work and 18 batters in his past 16 frames. The opposition is hitting a puny .188 against him this year and over his last three games his ERA is an impressive 2.61. Expos pounded out 13 hits last night and are 2-4 since the break. Not great but at least they aren’t laying down. Jae Weoung Seo will toss for the Mets and he’s simply not worthy of this billing. He’s won just four times in 16 starts and continues to give up plenty of hits while not striking out many. Seo has whiffed just 42 batters in 86 innings and has walked 32. Mets are ripe as ever to get beat and at this price Expos are most certainly a good gamble. Play Montreal +1.45 (Risking 1.6 units).
Milwaukee +1.65 over ST. LOUIS
Tag here will have heavy influence on our choice as the Cardinals are coming off an extremely emotional two game series against their most hated rival, the Chicago Cubs. Yesterday’s game topped off their emotions as they rallied from an 8-2 deficit and won again. They now have a 9½ game lead and we may just be able to catch them napping here. Brewers have been extremely live against righties with a 42-35 record thus far and will face one here in Woody Williams. Williams is steady, however, in a year in which the Cardinals are winning frequently, Williams is just 6-6 with a 4.28 ERA and there’s no way we’re refusing a price like this against a .500 pitcher. Victor Santos has been effective all year. He’s 9-3 with a 3.80 ERA and over his past three games his ERA is an even lower 3.00. The opposition has gone yard on him just five times in 87 innings. Great value here on this intruder and we’re stepping in. Play Milwaukee +1.65 (Risking 1.6 units).
Tampa Bay +1.40 over MINNESOTA
Definitely not interested in Brad Radke as big chalk because as the season progresses Radke just keeps getting worse. He’s been tagged for six bombs over his past 13 innings and has surrendered 13 hits and10 earned runs in his past nine innings of work. Radke has just five wins in 20 starts thus far and the opposition is hitting .284 against him and a meaty .471 against him in his last two starts. It’s not like he was facing the Rangers or Angels either. He faced the Royals in his last start and allowed three jacks and prior to that he faced the Tigers and allowed the same. Lefty John Halama will start for the D-Rays and he’s been tough on hitters all year. Halama is 5-3 with a respectable 3.61 ERA and he’s surrendered just five homers in 63 innings. He’s also walked just 14 over that same span and he’s been especially tough over his past three, compiling a 1-1 record and a 3.18 ERA. More good value here on another live dog and see no reason not to step in. Play Tampa Bay +1.40 (Risking 1.6 units).
Anaheim +1.13 over TEXAS
I know the Rangers are having a great year, however, this equation is a rather simple one. Anything being offered on the Angels is good enough for me as this team is capable of beating up anyone, anytime. Not going to go into too much detail here as not much thought is required. Kelvim Escobar is a front line pitcher on a front line team and that’s all there is to it. Of course the Angels can win here. Play Anaheim +1.13 (Risking 1.6 units).
CLEVELAND –1½ +1.80 over Chicago
Ya think the Indians are feeling good after knocking off the Angels in rather impressive fashion the last two days? The Tribe return home to play the Sox and this one couldn’t have set up much better. Cliff Lee has been tremendous all year for the Indians with 93 strikeouts and just 104 hits allowed in 113 innings. Lee is 6-0 at the Jake with a 3.08 ERA and the Jake is a hitters park which makes those numbers even more impressive. This Indians team is loaded with talent with their only weakness being the bullpen. Should they beef up the pen then they are a serious threat to win it all. They have speed, power, defense, starting pitching and they also hit for average. The White Sox are overmatched here and while I’d feel much better if the Indians pen was more solid, fact remains that this team may just blow away opponents in the second half. Price here is as sweet as it gets and there’s no reason that the Indians can’t win this one going away. Play Cleveland –1½ +1.80 (Risking 1.6 units).
Y-T-D (on this site) 17-23 (-3.73 units)
Florida +1.25 over PHILADELPHIA
Marlins come into this series having beaten the Mets two straight and now will face a team that they are extremely confident against. The Fish are in the Phillies collective heads and psychologically the Marlins have a big edge. The Phillies haven’t beaten them this year in six tries and last year their inability to beat the Marlins cost them the NL crown. Furthermore, we’re going with the more effective hurler here as Kevin Millwood has been struggling all year, especially at home where his ERA is 5.43. A.J. Burnett will go for the Marlins and he got off to a late start after spending the first two months of the season on the DL. You’re going to look at Burnett’s stats and see unimpressive numbers but don’t be fooled by his 1-4 record and 4.86 ERA. As we mentioned earlier, when Burnett’s season started he was a step or two behind everyone else and as a result he struggled in June. July has been much different. The opposition is hitting just .247 against him this month and he’s averaging nine k’s per nine innings and 0.92 walks over nine innings. He was hit pretty hard in his last game against the Pirates, however, Pittsburgh is hot as hell and that was just one game. Fact is, Burnett can pitch, he recently three hit the Rangers in seven innings and if the Marlins are going to make a move there isn’t a team they’d rather be facing then this one. Play Florida +1.25 (Risking 1.6 units).
Pittsburgh +1.35 over ATLANTA
How can you not take the Pirates here? Any take-back with Kris Benson on the mound against average pitchers has got to be considered the prudent move and this one’s no different. With the trade deadline looming, Benson will make what could be one of his last starts for the streaking Pirates. Benson will become a free agent after this season and the Pirates will most likely not be able to pay to keep him, making him one of he most sought-after players in the trade market this season and rightfully so. All he’s done is yield two or fewer earned runs in all but one of his last six starts. He has gone at least seven innings in nine straight starts and hasn't allowed a homer in 60 innings. Pirates have now won 16 of their past 21 and will face Paul Byrd here. Byrd’s best asset is his ability to throw strikes as seldom does he issue a walk, however, his velocity is average at best and he is very hittable. He averages just over five innings per start and over his last three, true to form, he’s lasted a combined 15 innings, allowing 18 hits and seven earned runs over that span for an ERA of 4.20. Everything points to this doggy and consider the tag a gift. Play Pittsburgh +1.35 (Risking 1.6 units).
Montreal +1.45 over NY METS
Good time as any to step in against the Mets. Team has dropped four of their past five and more concerning then that is they allowed the slumping Marlins to come into their crib and sweep a crucial two game series in typical Mets fashion. The pressure mounts in this media hotbed as the last place Expos come to town. When you wager against the Expos you’re always going to pay a premium and this game is a prime example of that. John Patterson is not exactly a household name but take note of this guy because he’s going to be around for years to come providing he stays healthy. Patterson will make just his sixth start of the season and will face a Mets lineup minus Mike Piazza. That can’t hurt our chances and neither can the fact that Patterson can pitch. He’s already struck out 26 batters in 27 innings of work and 18 batters in his past 16 frames. The opposition is hitting a puny .188 against him this year and over his last three games his ERA is an impressive 2.61. Expos pounded out 13 hits last night and are 2-4 since the break. Not great but at least they aren’t laying down. Jae Weoung Seo will toss for the Mets and he’s simply not worthy of this billing. He’s won just four times in 16 starts and continues to give up plenty of hits while not striking out many. Seo has whiffed just 42 batters in 86 innings and has walked 32. Mets are ripe as ever to get beat and at this price Expos are most certainly a good gamble. Play Montreal +1.45 (Risking 1.6 units).
Milwaukee +1.65 over ST. LOUIS
Tag here will have heavy influence on our choice as the Cardinals are coming off an extremely emotional two game series against their most hated rival, the Chicago Cubs. Yesterday’s game topped off their emotions as they rallied from an 8-2 deficit and won again. They now have a 9½ game lead and we may just be able to catch them napping here. Brewers have been extremely live against righties with a 42-35 record thus far and will face one here in Woody Williams. Williams is steady, however, in a year in which the Cardinals are winning frequently, Williams is just 6-6 with a 4.28 ERA and there’s no way we’re refusing a price like this against a .500 pitcher. Victor Santos has been effective all year. He’s 9-3 with a 3.80 ERA and over his past three games his ERA is an even lower 3.00. The opposition has gone yard on him just five times in 87 innings. Great value here on this intruder and we’re stepping in. Play Milwaukee +1.65 (Risking 1.6 units).
Tampa Bay +1.40 over MINNESOTA
Definitely not interested in Brad Radke as big chalk because as the season progresses Radke just keeps getting worse. He’s been tagged for six bombs over his past 13 innings and has surrendered 13 hits and10 earned runs in his past nine innings of work. Radke has just five wins in 20 starts thus far and the opposition is hitting .284 against him and a meaty .471 against him in his last two starts. It’s not like he was facing the Rangers or Angels either. He faced the Royals in his last start and allowed three jacks and prior to that he faced the Tigers and allowed the same. Lefty John Halama will start for the D-Rays and he’s been tough on hitters all year. Halama is 5-3 with a respectable 3.61 ERA and he’s surrendered just five homers in 63 innings. He’s also walked just 14 over that same span and he’s been especially tough over his past three, compiling a 1-1 record and a 3.18 ERA. More good value here on another live dog and see no reason not to step in. Play Tampa Bay +1.40 (Risking 1.6 units).
Anaheim +1.13 over TEXAS
I know the Rangers are having a great year, however, this equation is a rather simple one. Anything being offered on the Angels is good enough for me as this team is capable of beating up anyone, anytime. Not going to go into too much detail here as not much thought is required. Kelvim Escobar is a front line pitcher on a front line team and that’s all there is to it. Of course the Angels can win here. Play Anaheim +1.13 (Risking 1.6 units).
CLEVELAND –1½ +1.80 over Chicago
Ya think the Indians are feeling good after knocking off the Angels in rather impressive fashion the last two days? The Tribe return home to play the Sox and this one couldn’t have set up much better. Cliff Lee has been tremendous all year for the Indians with 93 strikeouts and just 104 hits allowed in 113 innings. Lee is 6-0 at the Jake with a 3.08 ERA and the Jake is a hitters park which makes those numbers even more impressive. This Indians team is loaded with talent with their only weakness being the bullpen. Should they beef up the pen then they are a serious threat to win it all. They have speed, power, defense, starting pitching and they also hit for average. The White Sox are overmatched here and while I’d feel much better if the Indians pen was more solid, fact remains that this team may just blow away opponents in the second half. Price here is as sweet as it gets and there’s no reason that the Indians can’t win this one going away. Play Cleveland –1½ +1.80 (Risking 1.6 units).
