Kid's Plays (9-8, -1.84)

Looking to finally break into the black after a terrible start. Todays plays...

Atl/Hous u9.5 -105 (oly)(4 units) - both starters here have improved greatly of late with John Thompson of Atlanta seemingly becoming just another in the long line of projects revitalized by the incomparable Leo Mazzone. The late switch to Pete Munro for the Astros was a big improvement over Tim Redding, but the line has barely budged. The 2 bullpens combine for an ERA of 3.65, so there is no drop off there, and they both have been even better recently. Both teams prefer to hit against southpaws, so todays righties will have an easier time of it. The only thing that concerns me here is the park factor being a positive 0.75 runs/game. But this is more than made up with todays home plate ump, Bill Miller. Miller is the 2nd best under ump in all of baseball with a 2.37 K/BB ratio and an 81-112 record for unders in his career.

Ana/Minn o9.5 -106 (2 units)(pinny)
Flor/Ariz o7 -119 (2 units) (pinny)

writeups for these last 2 to come later

Ana/Minn o9.5 -106 (2 units)(pinny) - Three things combine to make this a play. One - the ballpark factor is a very bullish +0.52. Second - Despite a decent pitching staff the Angels still give up a fair number of runs - some of it is no doubt because the Angels are dead last in the majors in turning double plays. The main reason for this play, though, is Mr. OVER himself, Gary Cederstrom, behind the plate. Cederstrom has a 141-103 record for overs the last 8 years, which is second to none. And his strikezone is only getting smaller - his K/BB ratio has declined each of the last 4 years. This year he has the lowest K/BB ratio of any ump with more than 10 appearances behind the plate.


Flor/Ariz o7 -119 (2 units) (pinny) - Playing the over with Randy Johnson vs Josh Beckett??? Have I lost my mind? No, I insist, I'm quite sane. Mr. Johnson is still Mr. Johnson, but other things combined to make this game a play for me. Number one, Josh Beckett is no longer Josh Beckett. Injuries have made this a nightmare season for him and there are no signs its getting any better. He has failed to go more than 4 innings in each of his last 4 starts. While he has shown flashes, he is far from the dominating righthander we all saw destroy the mighty Yankees last October. Secondly, the ballpark factor is HUGE. Whereas the Marlins play in one of the toughest parks to score in baseball, the D'backs play in one of the easiest, complete with the dreaded QuesTech. This combines for a ballpark factor of an astronomical +2.60. Next add in the 'Zona defense, which is one of the worst in baseball (76 unearned runs - most in the majors). Then realize that both teams are facing the type of pitcher they favor - Marlins facing a lefty, D'backs facing a righty. Finally, the clincher is, once again, the home plate ump. Paul Shreiber's lifetime record for overs is 120-94, second in over pct to Gary cederstrom. In his seven full seasons umping, his strikeout to walk ratio has never been higher than 1.94, which is the major league average. This year his ratio is 1.69 - one of the lowest around.

I'm gonna add one more play to the plate here. Since so many of today's home plate ump's are in the upper half of my over/under ratings I'm gonna make the following play...

Grand Salamie o141 -119 (1 unit) (pinny) - my ratings show 10 out of the 15 home plate umps to be in the upper half of my over/under ratings, with 3 of them in the top 10 (Cederstrom, Shreiber, and Merriwether). Of the 5 under umps, only Miller is significantly under, the rest are near the middle of the pack. This might be a good time to try the ole salamie for 1 unit.

Finally, into the black. Wrapping things up, we have ...

Atl/Hous u9.5 -105 (oly)(4 units) WON
Ana/Minn o9.5 -106 (2 units)(pinny) LOST
Flor/Ariz o7 -119 (2 units) (pinny) WON
Grand Salamie o141 -119 (1 unit) (pinny) WON

total for the day ... +4.33 units

total for the season ...
1 unit plays ... 2-0, +1.83
2 unit plays ... 5-3, +2.99
3 unit plays ... 2-6, -12.89
4 unit plays ... 3-0, +10.55

total ......... 12-9, +2.49 units