NYM/Milw o8 +106 (pinny) (3 units) - The Met's Zambrano has the most walks in the majors and will be pitching for NY for the first time. No doubt he will be a bit nervous (wilder??). He could use a little help from the ump. He won't get it. Mike Reilly has a very stingy strike zone (1.73 K/BB ratio for his career, 1.63 last 2 seasons). The Brewer's Santos has had a good season, but the Mets seem to have his number, tatooing him for 8 runs in 9 innings in his 2 starts vs. NY. The bullpens are about average for these 2 teams, but the Met's closer Looper went 1 2/3 last night and threw a season high 35 pitches, so it is doubtful he will be available tonite. The rest of the Mets pen is highly suspect, so unless Zambrano can miraculously find the strikezone, keep his pitch count down, and make it to at least the 7th, the Mets could be in deep trouble. He won't get any help from his defense either - the Mets are last in the majors in errors and have the distinction of being the only team in baseball with more errors than double plays. The Brewers are also a poor defensive team, ranking 12th in the league in both errors and double plays. Finally, with a stadium factor of +0.98 and with it being a day game (day games historically are higher scoring, averaging 0.15 more runs/game), this game is a solid bet for the over.
Cincy/SF o10 +100 (oly) (1 unit) - Despite some good signs pointing towards an over here, I feel the line is a bit too high to lay more than 1 unit on this one. Both pitchers have had mediocre seasons as has both team's pens. My problem with betting more here is that the stadium factor is a very negative -1.34. Pac Bell is one of the toughest parks to score at. In addition, both teams are facing the type of pitcher that they struggle against - SF vs a righty, Cincy vs a lefty. However, my thinking here is that since both pitchers average less than 6 innings/start, the teams would only face this disadvantage for half the game or so. This is even more likely to occur considering today's home plate ump, Derryl Cousins, has one of the tiniest strike zones in all of baseball. As a matter of fact, with a career 1.52 K/BB ratio, no other umpire has a lower ratio. Add in the fact that the game is a day game (+0.15 runs), the teams are poor defensively (10th and 13th in the N.L. in errors; 7th and 15th in DP's), and the bullpens are tired (9 pitchers threw 8 1/3 innings combined in last nights game), and there is enough reason to put at least a token amount on this game.
Flor/Ariz o9 -107 (IIS) (3 units) - Paul Shreiber was supposed to be behind the plate last night, but was not for some reason. Fortunately, we still won that game, and now we get the opportunity to play today's game with Shreiber behind the plate for sure. For those that didn't see my writeup on Shreiber, he has been one of the best over umps in baseball for the last 8 years, posting a 120-94 record and a 1.72 K/BB ratio over that time. This is by no means the only reason for playing this one though. The ballpark factor is an almost unheard of +2.60 for this one. No doubt a lot of that is already factored into the line, but I doubt ALL of it is. Arizona is the 2nd best park in baseball (behind Coors Field) to score at and Florida ranks in the bottom five. Also note that Florida lost its closer, Benitez, and each team has a tired pen to boot (8 pitchers threw a combined 8 innings last night). The day game factor comes into play here (+0.15 runs), and just like my other 2 plays, both teams are poor defensively (15th and 6th in errors; 7th and 10th in DP's). It all adds up to a solid 3 unit play in my book.
Good luck.
