Thursdays picks with writeups

Yesterday 1-2 -1.44 units
Y-T-D (on this site) 21-36 (-15.11 units)

Oakland +1.60 over NY YANKEES
The last time Barry Zito was getting a take-back like this Michael Jackson looked normal. Point is, Barry Zito is having an off year, however, the A’s are not and this is the perfect spot for him to get right-sided. Southpaws always have an edge at Yankee Stadium and Zito has been one of the leagues best hurlers the past three years. Zito went 54-25 with a 3.17 ERA in 105 starts from 2001-03, including a sparkling 23-5 mark with a 2.75 ERA during his 2002 Cy Young Award-winning season. He’s unbeaten in his last four starts and as the season winds down, Zito is going to be needed in a big way. There’s no denying that he can pitch and hasn’t lost it, he’s just having a bit of an off year, much the same way that Bartolo Colon was until recently when he regained his form. Barry Zito and the A’s the +1.60 is insane. Play Oakland +1.60 (Risking 1.6 units).

KANSAS CITY +1.30 over Chicago
After looking at the White Sox lineup one need not try and figure out why this team is going nowhere. Brian Anderson two hit this team last night and shut them out. Anderson, prior to this game, had allowed 145 hits in 97 innings and the South Side managed two in nine innings. Chicago’s batting line-up is embarrassing. Uribe is hitting .259, Borchard is hitting .146, Crede is hitting .234, the catching platoon is hitting .238, Carl Everett is hitting .257 and the list goes on. Last night the White Sox lost for the eighth time in 10 games. This team is reeling big time and the fact that they are road chalk here against a very decent pitcher in Zack Greinke makes absolutely no sense at all. John Garland is average at best and he may not even be that. Line is way out of whack. Play Kansas City +1.30 (Risking 1.6 units).

Montreal +2.30 over ST. LOUIS
Not a chance in hell are we passing up this proposition. Expos playing too good to pass this up and today’s starter, John Patterson is very capable indeed. Patterson is a strikeout pitcher with nasty stuff as his 44 k’s in his last 41 innings would attest to. He’s also struck out 18 over his past 13. His numbers may not suggest just how effective he’s been, however, he has been dazzling at times and this guy has the potential to hang a gem on anyone at anytime. Chris Carpenter gives up about four a game and we’ll gladly take four runs and take our chances that the Cardinals won’t score five. Another line that is incredibly inflated because the Cards are in first and are popular and the Expos are in last and are moving to West Virginia, if anyone cares. Giant overlay. Play Montreal +2.30 (Risking 1.6 units).

Cincinnati +1.38 over SAN FRANCISCO
Frisco is not playing well enough, nor is Kirk Reuter good enough to lay this type of lumber with this combination. Reuter is a guy who always gives the opposition plenty of chances to score runs. He’s already been tagged for 160 hits in 125 innings and over his last three games, he’s lasted a combined 15 innings while allowing 26 hits over that span and mine earned runs. Reuter is a old, tired arm that hasn’t got too many more major league innings left in it. Aaron Harang is a young arm with plenty of innings left. He’s 6-3 this year and the opposition has gone yard on him just eight times in 95 frames. Griffey is back in the lineup and the Reds responded last night with 3 homers and Griffey himself went 2-3. Bottom line here is value and when you’re offered a price like this against Reuter we suggest you take it. Play Cincinnati +1.38 (Risking 1.6 units).

MINNESOTA +1.15 over Anaheim
Makes no sense whatsoever that the struggling Angels are the road chalk here against the sizzling Twins. It’s not like Kelvim Escobar, Bartolo Colon, or even Jamal Washburn is on the mound. It’s Aaron Sele for crying out loud. Sele is a total stiff and was pounded by the Mariners last time out. He seldom makes it past the fifth inning and we expect him to be gone earlier then that here. Angels have been outscored 16-3 in losing the first two of this series, including a 6-3 decision on Wednesday and 10-0 to Carlos Silva on Tuesday. Something is not right with these Angels and as we’ve learned in the past, losing is contagious and right now this intruder has the bug. Twins have won eight of nine and are currently hitting the seam off the ball. Angels have no right being favored here. Play Minnesota +1.15 (Risking 1.6 units).

NY Mets +1.15 over MILWAUKEE
As long as we’re being offered a tag against these Brewers you can count us in and we make no exception here. Victor Zambrano will make his New York Mets debut here. Zambrano was acquired from Tampa Bay along with minor league pitcher Bartolome Fortunato last Friday for Scott Kazmir, the Mets' best pitching prospect, and minor league pitcher Jose Diaz. The Devil Rays' leader in wins this season, Zambrano was 9-7 with a 4.43 ERA 23 games, including 22 starts. He also struck out 109 in 128 innings. Zambrano, eligible for arbitration after this season, was 35-27 in four years with the Devil Rays. Zambrano can pitch, make no mistake about that. His problem is that he sometimes can’t find the strike zone but we’re willing to gamble that he’ll be on his game today. Milwaukee is reeling and that’s good enough for us to back this live pooch. Play NY Mets +1.15 (Risking 1.6 units).

Sherwood, very nice writeups. Don't give up despite your poor results so far. You seem to have a good plan (dogs, value plays). I'm with you on several of these games. I spend a lot of time rating the home plate umps and several of these games are plays in that regard also.

Oak over NYY has Paul Emmel umping. He is in my upper half of "Anti-homer" umps. I'll take an elite lefthanded hurler in Yankee Stadium at +160 too.

Mont over StL is also a play in my book. The home plate ump is Bill Hohn, who is a young ump without a lot of games (3 years), but it's looking like he is trying to make his mark as an "anti-homer". Also note that the Expos have been tatooing righthanders lately, with an incredible 9 runs per game vs the righties in the last 10 games. +230 is a steal.

Minny over Anaheim. I agree. I can't figure out why in the world Minny is the dog here. What's really nice is that the home plate ump is Jim Reynolds. Reynolds is one of the biggest "homers" in all of baseball. Home teams have a 39-15 record in each game Reynolds has called strikes for the past 2 seasons.

Good luck on these and check out my picks if you get a chance. I, too, try to include writeups for every pick.

BOL in the Mets game.

Reporting here live from Tampa Bay, V Zambrano's previous port of call.

His weakness as we know is giving up walks and his strength is strikeouts.

And today he faces the league's biggest Windmills outside of Cincinnati with the Brewers.

Meanwhile, Brewers SP Vic Santos also has excellent strikeout numbers and the Mets are themselves third in the league for whiffs.

We expect to see 20+ Ks between the two teams and 15 or less hits. That spells UNDER (M-O-O-N) 8 in our humble opinion. We will cheer with you for a 4-3 Mets win, aiggggggght?

Thanks guys for the support despite the poor record. Bottom line is value and sometimes your luck just runs bad. Last night, with a little luck, could have easily gone 3-0. A;s blew a 2 run lead in the ninth and exspos and Cards were tied 4-4 going to the ninth. Expos left 7 on base in the last three innings. It'll turn.

Good luck everyone and thanks again.