Yesterday 2-1 +2.24 units
Y-T-D (on this site) 26-40 (-11.55 units)
Toronto +1.67 over NY YANKEES
Tough to go against the Yanks because they win so often, however, the tag here is ludicrous and that makes this choice not that difficult at all. Ted Lilly has been absolutely brilliant all year for the Blue Jays and add the fact that he’s a southpaw pitching in a southpaws park, and you can understand why the Blue Jays have such a good chance here. Lilly has allowed just eight hits over his last 19 innings and has a 0.92 ERA over that stretch. Over his last seven starts, Lilly has not allowed more then two runs in six of those and allowed one run or fewer in four of those six. Yanks will counter will “El Duque”, Orlando Hernandez. He’s unbeaten in five starts since coming off the DL on July 11, however, his stats are a little misleading. Hernandez has gone more than five innings just once since his return. He lasting just two innings in a 7-4 win at Toronto on July 27 and followed that up when he pitched New York to a 9-7 victory over Baltimore on Sunday, allowing three runs and nine hits over five innings. Believe it or not, Yanks are going to lose some more games this year and this can surely be one of them. Insane line. Play Toronto +1.67 (Risking 1.6 units).
Cleveland +1.50 over CHICAGO
What, did Joe Crede put something special in his Corn Flakes this morning? Freddy Garcia or not, we wouldn’t lay this type of lumber on the White Sox even if the game was final. This White Sox team is sinking fast and there appears to be no end in sight. When Paul Konerko is your superstar then you’ve got problems. Chicago has now dropped 10 of 12 and picking up Roberto Alomar wasn’t the answer. Alomar’s head is elsewhere and all he’ll do is create problems like he does wherever he goes. Anyway, we get great value on the surging Indians here who are now two games above .500. The Indians have won three in a row and 10 of 15. They’re hot and can’t wait to get to the park while the South Side is reeling big time. Cliff Lee is not in the best of form right now but don’t let that deter you. Chicago has a way of redeeming one’s lost confidence and Lee was having a great year until this recent slump. He’s still 10-4 on the year with a 4.63 ERA and prior to his funk, his ERA was 3.83. Line is out of whack and there is little doubt that the Indians can win here. Huge value. Play Cleveland +1.50 (Risking 1.6 units).
Montreal +2.20 over HOUSTON
Appears to be a few games today where the line is insane and this one might be the biggest overlay of the day. Are you kidding me, +2.20 on the Expos against Andy Pettitte? Pettitte, aside from not being able to stay off the DL with nagging injuries, has been horrible at Minute Maid Park. He has a 6.11 ERA at home and on the year he’s averaging just 5.1 innings per start. He’s pitched just 35 innings at home this year and the opposition is hitting .273 against him. Joe Rauch will make his first start of the year after appearing in 10 games for the White Sox over the past two years. He did pitch in long relief on June 24 against the Indians when he went 5 innings and gave up just one run. Rauch is a big guy in fact, he’s 6’11” and weighs 260 pounds. He was a bright prospect but has had difficulties in adjusting to this level of competition. Still, he has the ability and after spending most of the season at Triple AAA Charlotte, another chance to pitch in the bigs has got to have him pumped up. Expos pitching coach, Randy St. Claire has a way of working wonders as he has done with young pitchers, Zach Day, Tony Armas Jr, Javier Vasquez, and Tim Drew to name a few. Additionally, the Expos have been very competitive against lefties with a 14-18 record. Price is right here and win, lose, or draw, you won’t find much better value then this one. Giant overlay. Play Montreal +2.20 (Risking 1.6 units).
MINNESOTA –1½ +1.60 over Oakland
Have no idea how many innings I’ve watched this year but I’m here to tell you that no pitcher in baseball is better then Johan Santana. This guy has been simply unhittable in his last 11 starts. Consider that over those 11 starts he has pitched into the eighth inning in nine of them. Santana has allowed 2 runs or fewer in all eleven games. Over his last 83 innings he’s allowed 36 hits. He has 173 strikeouts in 152.2 innings. In 30 years of watching baseball I’ve never seen a pitcher that has been as dominating as Santana. The A’s will be fortunate to get one run here and I don’t think they’ll even manage that. They’re 5-9 on the road against lefties and will face the best in the business today. Tim Hudson is on a strict pitch count of 75-80 pitches, which means he could easily be gone by the fifth inning. Some Twins will touch home plate today and three or four runs will get us to the cashier’s booth. I haven’t laid –140 in a baseball game in 15 years, however, if I was ever going to do it this would be the game. Covering the run line here appears very attainable and I’ll stick with that. Line is sweet as it gets. Play Minnesota –1½ +1.60 (Risking 1.6 units).
Y-T-D (on this site) 26-40 (-11.55 units)
Toronto +1.67 over NY YANKEES
Tough to go against the Yanks because they win so often, however, the tag here is ludicrous and that makes this choice not that difficult at all. Ted Lilly has been absolutely brilliant all year for the Blue Jays and add the fact that he’s a southpaw pitching in a southpaws park, and you can understand why the Blue Jays have such a good chance here. Lilly has allowed just eight hits over his last 19 innings and has a 0.92 ERA over that stretch. Over his last seven starts, Lilly has not allowed more then two runs in six of those and allowed one run or fewer in four of those six. Yanks will counter will “El Duque”, Orlando Hernandez. He’s unbeaten in five starts since coming off the DL on July 11, however, his stats are a little misleading. Hernandez has gone more than five innings just once since his return. He lasting just two innings in a 7-4 win at Toronto on July 27 and followed that up when he pitched New York to a 9-7 victory over Baltimore on Sunday, allowing three runs and nine hits over five innings. Believe it or not, Yanks are going to lose some more games this year and this can surely be one of them. Insane line. Play Toronto +1.67 (Risking 1.6 units).
Cleveland +1.50 over CHICAGO
What, did Joe Crede put something special in his Corn Flakes this morning? Freddy Garcia or not, we wouldn’t lay this type of lumber on the White Sox even if the game was final. This White Sox team is sinking fast and there appears to be no end in sight. When Paul Konerko is your superstar then you’ve got problems. Chicago has now dropped 10 of 12 and picking up Roberto Alomar wasn’t the answer. Alomar’s head is elsewhere and all he’ll do is create problems like he does wherever he goes. Anyway, we get great value on the surging Indians here who are now two games above .500. The Indians have won three in a row and 10 of 15. They’re hot and can’t wait to get to the park while the South Side is reeling big time. Cliff Lee is not in the best of form right now but don’t let that deter you. Chicago has a way of redeeming one’s lost confidence and Lee was having a great year until this recent slump. He’s still 10-4 on the year with a 4.63 ERA and prior to his funk, his ERA was 3.83. Line is out of whack and there is little doubt that the Indians can win here. Huge value. Play Cleveland +1.50 (Risking 1.6 units).
Montreal +2.20 over HOUSTON
Appears to be a few games today where the line is insane and this one might be the biggest overlay of the day. Are you kidding me, +2.20 on the Expos against Andy Pettitte? Pettitte, aside from not being able to stay off the DL with nagging injuries, has been horrible at Minute Maid Park. He has a 6.11 ERA at home and on the year he’s averaging just 5.1 innings per start. He’s pitched just 35 innings at home this year and the opposition is hitting .273 against him. Joe Rauch will make his first start of the year after appearing in 10 games for the White Sox over the past two years. He did pitch in long relief on June 24 against the Indians when he went 5 innings and gave up just one run. Rauch is a big guy in fact, he’s 6’11” and weighs 260 pounds. He was a bright prospect but has had difficulties in adjusting to this level of competition. Still, he has the ability and after spending most of the season at Triple AAA Charlotte, another chance to pitch in the bigs has got to have him pumped up. Expos pitching coach, Randy St. Claire has a way of working wonders as he has done with young pitchers, Zach Day, Tony Armas Jr, Javier Vasquez, and Tim Drew to name a few. Additionally, the Expos have been very competitive against lefties with a 14-18 record. Price is right here and win, lose, or draw, you won’t find much better value then this one. Giant overlay. Play Montreal +2.20 (Risking 1.6 units).
MINNESOTA –1½ +1.60 over Oakland
Have no idea how many innings I’ve watched this year but I’m here to tell you that no pitcher in baseball is better then Johan Santana. This guy has been simply unhittable in his last 11 starts. Consider that over those 11 starts he has pitched into the eighth inning in nine of them. Santana has allowed 2 runs or fewer in all eleven games. Over his last 83 innings he’s allowed 36 hits. He has 173 strikeouts in 152.2 innings. In 30 years of watching baseball I’ve never seen a pitcher that has been as dominating as Santana. The A’s will be fortunate to get one run here and I don’t think they’ll even manage that. They’re 5-9 on the road against lefties and will face the best in the business today. Tim Hudson is on a strict pitch count of 75-80 pitches, which means he could easily be gone by the fifth inning. Some Twins will touch home plate today and three or four runs will get us to the cashier’s booth. I haven’t laid –140 in a baseball game in 15 years, however, if I was ever going to do it this would be the game. Covering the run line here appears very attainable and I’ll stick with that. Line is sweet as it gets. Play Minnesota –1½ +1.60 (Risking 1.6 units).
