Yesterday 0-2 -3.20 units
Y-T-D (on this site) 28-44 (-11.23 units)
Colorado +1.60 over PHILADELPHIA
Plenty of reasons to like the Rockies tonight with the first being that the Phillies return home from a season long 13 game road trip tonight. They’ve been on the West Coast the past six days including yesterday where they wrapped up their three game set with the Dodgers. Thirteen games in the past 14 days all on the road, ending in a trip to the Coast has got to have this team a little fatigued and they’ll need a day or two to recover. Additionally, Eric Milton has been living a rather charmed life in a Phillies uniform. Milton is 6-0 at home, however, his 4.32 ERA at Citizens Bank Ballpark is anything but unbeatable. Milton is also 1-0 over his last three games and his ERA over that stretch is 6.11. Overall he’s 12-2, which might be the most fortunate 12-2 that we’ve ever seen. His ERA on the year is 4.80 and just to give you an idea of how lucky he’s been, Brandon Webb of the D-Backs has an ERA of 3.68 and he’s 4-13. Milton won his last start, his first in a month, when he got lucky again as the Phillies outscored the Padres 7-5 and Milton allowed all five runs in five innings of work. The Rockies have been very good against lefties all year as their 19-11 record would attest to. Jamey Wright has new life since being picked up by the Rockies and he’s responded. In three starts, two of them at Coors, he’s compiled a 2.30 ERA in 15.2 innings of work. Not going to go on too much about Wright, we’ve seen him get rocked on plenty of occasions, this choice is not about him. This is about getting some rock solid value against a big favorite that is ripe to get beat. Big overlay. Play Colorado +1.61 (Risking 1.6 units).
Cleveland –1½ +1.35 over CHICAGO
White Sox won yesterday not because they played well but because the Indians failed to score four runs. One win is not going to deter us from continuing to try and feast off the White Sox woes, there not over. Chicago will send youngster Felix Diaz to the mound and he has not looked comfortable all year in just five appearances, four as a starter. In 20 innings of work, Diaz has been tagged for 32 hits, 20 earned runs, eight jacks, and an 8.71 ERA to go along with all that. This is not the offense you want to face when you need to get right-sided and confidence is low. Jake Westbrook can be relied upon to give the Indians solid innings each time he takes the mound. Westbrook comes in with a 3.37 ERA in 19 starts and he also averages close to seven innings per assignment. He’s been effective, he’s been consistent and there’s nothing like a little dose of this anemic offense to keep things rolling. Have to believe the Indians are good for more then a few runs tonight, which should get us to the pay window. Play Cleveland –1½ +1.35 (Risking 1.6 units).
Y-T-D (on this site) 28-44 (-11.23 units)
Colorado +1.60 over PHILADELPHIA
Plenty of reasons to like the Rockies tonight with the first being that the Phillies return home from a season long 13 game road trip tonight. They’ve been on the West Coast the past six days including yesterday where they wrapped up their three game set with the Dodgers. Thirteen games in the past 14 days all on the road, ending in a trip to the Coast has got to have this team a little fatigued and they’ll need a day or two to recover. Additionally, Eric Milton has been living a rather charmed life in a Phillies uniform. Milton is 6-0 at home, however, his 4.32 ERA at Citizens Bank Ballpark is anything but unbeatable. Milton is also 1-0 over his last three games and his ERA over that stretch is 6.11. Overall he’s 12-2, which might be the most fortunate 12-2 that we’ve ever seen. His ERA on the year is 4.80 and just to give you an idea of how lucky he’s been, Brandon Webb of the D-Backs has an ERA of 3.68 and he’s 4-13. Milton won his last start, his first in a month, when he got lucky again as the Phillies outscored the Padres 7-5 and Milton allowed all five runs in five innings of work. The Rockies have been very good against lefties all year as their 19-11 record would attest to. Jamey Wright has new life since being picked up by the Rockies and he’s responded. In three starts, two of them at Coors, he’s compiled a 2.30 ERA in 15.2 innings of work. Not going to go on too much about Wright, we’ve seen him get rocked on plenty of occasions, this choice is not about him. This is about getting some rock solid value against a big favorite that is ripe to get beat. Big overlay. Play Colorado +1.61 (Risking 1.6 units).
Cleveland –1½ +1.35 over CHICAGO
White Sox won yesterday not because they played well but because the Indians failed to score four runs. One win is not going to deter us from continuing to try and feast off the White Sox woes, there not over. Chicago will send youngster Felix Diaz to the mound and he has not looked comfortable all year in just five appearances, four as a starter. In 20 innings of work, Diaz has been tagged for 32 hits, 20 earned runs, eight jacks, and an 8.71 ERA to go along with all that. This is not the offense you want to face when you need to get right-sided and confidence is low. Jake Westbrook can be relied upon to give the Indians solid innings each time he takes the mound. Westbrook comes in with a 3.37 ERA in 19 starts and he also averages close to seven innings per assignment. He’s been effective, he’s been consistent and there’s nothing like a little dose of this anemic offense to keep things rolling. Have to believe the Indians are good for more then a few runs tonight, which should get us to the pay window. Play Cleveland –1½ +1.35 (Risking 1.6 units).
