Yesterday 2-0 +4.74 units
Y-T-D (on this site) 30-44 (-6.49 units)
Baltimore +1.25 over ANAHEIM
Aaron Sele is 7-0 this year, however, it’s not because he’s pitched great, it’s because the Angels give him major run support and as a result, he’s yet to feel defeat this year. That’s about to change. Pitchers like Aaron Sele cannot go unbeaten, it just doesn’t happen. I’m not talking about the “due to lose” theory here, which, incidentally, is about the most ridiculous angle in sports, I’m talking about a guy that just isn’t good enough not to lose. Sele has a 4.60 ERA and has nearly walked (35) as many as he’s struck out (40). His ERA over his past three is 5.00 and at home his ERA is 4.74. So you see, the guy is consistently allowing about five runs a game no matter whom he’s facing or where he’s pitching. In his past 5 games, he’s faced the White Sox once and the Mariners twice and in typical Sele fashion, he went five innings and gave up five runs to both those weak offensive teams. Enter the Orioles, the hottest team in the league right now. They have run off seven in a row and are now four games above .500. Collectively, they have hit over 300 in seven of their last eight while scoring 57 times over that stretch. Daniel Cabrera has some real good numbers on the year including an 8-5 record and a 3.66 ERA. On the road, he’s 6-3 with a 3.72 ERA. He hasn’t been in top form recently, however, that’s not going to deter us from playing this live pooch. Playing sizzling teams with a tag is never bad strategy and we make no exception here. Play Baltimore +1.25 (Risking 1.6 units).
Colorado +1.50 over PHILADELPHIA
Vincente Padilla comes off the DL for the Phillies to start this game and he’s been on the rack since May 29. Padilla has been an average pitcher his whole career and now he’s asked to pitch a game in which he’s about five steps behind everyone else. In his rehab start on last Thursday, Padilla allowed four runs in 3.2 innings of work. That’s not encouraging and neither is the fact that he’s on a strict pitch count of 80. Additionally, we told you yesterday that the Phillies returned home from a 13 game trip and this is their second day back. The second day is when fatigue really sets in and if you thought the Phillies looked a bit lethargic last night you can double that tonight. In 17 starts, Joe Kennedy has a 3.95 ERA. That’s actually very impressive when you consider that he pitches half his games at that launching pad in Denver. His ERA outside of Colorado is 3.89 and he’s also a lefty. The Phillies are under .500 against lefties and once again we find tremendous value on this intruder in a game that they have zero disadvantage. This tag is truly insane. Play Colorado +1.50 (Risking 1.6 units).
Kansas City +1.55 over CHICAGO
The feast continues. If someone can explain to me why the tag on the White Sox keeps going up when they’ve been losing almost everyday for the past two weeks, I’d sure like to hear it. Zack Greinke is the Royals best starter and despite being a rookie this guy is going to give you a quality start 90% of the time. He’s had one rough start in his past nine games when he was knocked out in the second inning by the Orioles after they scored nine runs. As a result, Greinke’s ERA is inflated and a bit misleading. He’s made just 14 starts and if you toss out that one glitch his ERA on the year would be 3.57. This kid can pitch and he does so like he’s been around for 10 years. The Royals smacked Garland around last week in K,C. and there’s a good chance they’ll do the same here. Garland is average at best. There is one choice here and it’s not the home side. White Sox in this range is ludicrous. Huge value. Play Kansas City +1.55 (Risking 1.6 units).
NY Yankees –1½ +1.15 over TEXAS
Kevin Brown made his return last game out and looked like he didn’t miss a beat. The man is simply amazing and he couldn’t have picked a better time to face this host. Texas is reeling big time. The Rangers were outscored 30-10 in their first four-game sweep in Baltimore in 13 seasons. Texas, which started the series in first place in the AL West, now stands 2 1/2 games behind first-place Oakland. The hot bats have gone ice cold and this isn’t the team you want to face when you need to get right-sided. Yanks will love this park and we’re looking for an offensive explosion here which is extremely likely. Play NY Yankees –1½ +1.15 (Risking 1.6 units).
Y-T-D (on this site) 30-44 (-6.49 units)
Baltimore +1.25 over ANAHEIM
Aaron Sele is 7-0 this year, however, it’s not because he’s pitched great, it’s because the Angels give him major run support and as a result, he’s yet to feel defeat this year. That’s about to change. Pitchers like Aaron Sele cannot go unbeaten, it just doesn’t happen. I’m not talking about the “due to lose” theory here, which, incidentally, is about the most ridiculous angle in sports, I’m talking about a guy that just isn’t good enough not to lose. Sele has a 4.60 ERA and has nearly walked (35) as many as he’s struck out (40). His ERA over his past three is 5.00 and at home his ERA is 4.74. So you see, the guy is consistently allowing about five runs a game no matter whom he’s facing or where he’s pitching. In his past 5 games, he’s faced the White Sox once and the Mariners twice and in typical Sele fashion, he went five innings and gave up five runs to both those weak offensive teams. Enter the Orioles, the hottest team in the league right now. They have run off seven in a row and are now four games above .500. Collectively, they have hit over 300 in seven of their last eight while scoring 57 times over that stretch. Daniel Cabrera has some real good numbers on the year including an 8-5 record and a 3.66 ERA. On the road, he’s 6-3 with a 3.72 ERA. He hasn’t been in top form recently, however, that’s not going to deter us from playing this live pooch. Playing sizzling teams with a tag is never bad strategy and we make no exception here. Play Baltimore +1.25 (Risking 1.6 units).
Colorado +1.50 over PHILADELPHIA
Vincente Padilla comes off the DL for the Phillies to start this game and he’s been on the rack since May 29. Padilla has been an average pitcher his whole career and now he’s asked to pitch a game in which he’s about five steps behind everyone else. In his rehab start on last Thursday, Padilla allowed four runs in 3.2 innings of work. That’s not encouraging and neither is the fact that he’s on a strict pitch count of 80. Additionally, we told you yesterday that the Phillies returned home from a 13 game trip and this is their second day back. The second day is when fatigue really sets in and if you thought the Phillies looked a bit lethargic last night you can double that tonight. In 17 starts, Joe Kennedy has a 3.95 ERA. That’s actually very impressive when you consider that he pitches half his games at that launching pad in Denver. His ERA outside of Colorado is 3.89 and he’s also a lefty. The Phillies are under .500 against lefties and once again we find tremendous value on this intruder in a game that they have zero disadvantage. This tag is truly insane. Play Colorado +1.50 (Risking 1.6 units).
Kansas City +1.55 over CHICAGO
The feast continues. If someone can explain to me why the tag on the White Sox keeps going up when they’ve been losing almost everyday for the past two weeks, I’d sure like to hear it. Zack Greinke is the Royals best starter and despite being a rookie this guy is going to give you a quality start 90% of the time. He’s had one rough start in his past nine games when he was knocked out in the second inning by the Orioles after they scored nine runs. As a result, Greinke’s ERA is inflated and a bit misleading. He’s made just 14 starts and if you toss out that one glitch his ERA on the year would be 3.57. This kid can pitch and he does so like he’s been around for 10 years. The Royals smacked Garland around last week in K,C. and there’s a good chance they’ll do the same here. Garland is average at best. There is one choice here and it’s not the home side. White Sox in this range is ludicrous. Huge value. Play Kansas City +1.55 (Risking 1.6 units).
NY Yankees –1½ +1.15 over TEXAS
Kevin Brown made his return last game out and looked like he didn’t miss a beat. The man is simply amazing and he couldn’t have picked a better time to face this host. Texas is reeling big time. The Rangers were outscored 30-10 in their first four-game sweep in Baltimore in 13 seasons. Texas, which started the series in first place in the AL West, now stands 2 1/2 games behind first-place Oakland. The hot bats have gone ice cold and this isn’t the team you want to face when you need to get right-sided. Yanks will love this park and we’re looking for an offensive explosion here which is extremely likely. Play NY Yankees –1½ +1.15 (Risking 1.6 units).
