MLB Mon, Aug 9, 2004
Books get wise to Brewers total trend
Andrew Folkes
Thanks to a sub-par hitting roster and an underrated pitching staff, the Milwaukee Brewers have kept the cups of under backers overflowing with wealth this season.
But take note, totals bettors: It’s taken oddsmakers over half a season to finally catch on to the Brewers, and the taps may soon be running dry on this trend.
With a 46-63-1 over/under record, Milwaukee sits atop the major leagues in under results this year. Glancing at the team’s pitching and hitting numbers, it’s really no surprise.
Following their 2-0 win over the Florida Marlins Sunday, the Brewers stood in 10th place in team pitching with a 4.07 ERA, thanks in part to the work of ace Ben Sheets.
The 26-year-old righty is having a career year with a 2.65 ERA and is second in the league with a stellar 0.97 WHIP. The Baton Rouge native is also fourth in the bigs in strikeouts with 171.
The Milwaukee bullpen ranks a modest 15th in the league with a 3.89 ERA, but boasts one of the league’s best closers in Danny Kolb. The right-handed pitcher has 31 saves and a stingy 2.04 ERA.
Looking at the offensive end of the picture, its obvious the Brewers’ impotent bats have been the biggest factor in bolstering Milwaukee’s under record. The team ranks 28th in team hitting at .253; is tied for 28th in team slugging at .388; ranks 29th in RBIs with 418; and 28th in home runs with 90.
Outfielders Scott Podsednik and Geoff Jenkins have been a complete writeoff. The two have the most at-bats for the Brewers, but Podsednik is hitting .252 after batting .314 last season. Jenkins, meanwhile, is batting .249 after a .296 campaign last year.
At the end of last season, the Brewers had notched 67 under results, the fourth fewest of any team in the majors. That factor, and the club's 5.00 team ERA (fifth worst in MLB in 2003), are likely the reasons why the books were often setting double-digit totals on tilts involving Milwaukee earlier this season.
In the first 15 games of 2004, the Brew Crew didn’t see a total lower than nine. Over their past 13 games, however, nine is the highest total they’ve seen. During that stretch, books have set the total at eight on six occasions, dipping five times to a total of seven, and it's even dropped to as low as 6 1/2 when Sheets and Chicago Cubs ace Greg Maddux squared off on July 27.
The books’ adjustments have slowly begun to buck the trends. Since July 26, Milwaukee has played over the total in seven of 13 contests. They also went on a five-game over streak last week.
Over the next nine games, the Brewers will face the Atlanta Braves, the Marlins and the Cubs in three-game sets respectively. Milwaukee hit the under in 13 of the combined 17 games against these three clubs - but keep in mind the totals have been dropping
Books get wise to Brewers total trend
Andrew Folkes
Thanks to a sub-par hitting roster and an underrated pitching staff, the Milwaukee Brewers have kept the cups of under backers overflowing with wealth this season.
But take note, totals bettors: It’s taken oddsmakers over half a season to finally catch on to the Brewers, and the taps may soon be running dry on this trend.
With a 46-63-1 over/under record, Milwaukee sits atop the major leagues in under results this year. Glancing at the team’s pitching and hitting numbers, it’s really no surprise.
Following their 2-0 win over the Florida Marlins Sunday, the Brewers stood in 10th place in team pitching with a 4.07 ERA, thanks in part to the work of ace Ben Sheets.
The 26-year-old righty is having a career year with a 2.65 ERA and is second in the league with a stellar 0.97 WHIP. The Baton Rouge native is also fourth in the bigs in strikeouts with 171.
The Milwaukee bullpen ranks a modest 15th in the league with a 3.89 ERA, but boasts one of the league’s best closers in Danny Kolb. The right-handed pitcher has 31 saves and a stingy 2.04 ERA.
Looking at the offensive end of the picture, its obvious the Brewers’ impotent bats have been the biggest factor in bolstering Milwaukee’s under record. The team ranks 28th in team hitting at .253; is tied for 28th in team slugging at .388; ranks 29th in RBIs with 418; and 28th in home runs with 90.
Outfielders Scott Podsednik and Geoff Jenkins have been a complete writeoff. The two have the most at-bats for the Brewers, but Podsednik is hitting .252 after batting .314 last season. Jenkins, meanwhile, is batting .249 after a .296 campaign last year.
At the end of last season, the Brewers had notched 67 under results, the fourth fewest of any team in the majors. That factor, and the club's 5.00 team ERA (fifth worst in MLB in 2003), are likely the reasons why the books were often setting double-digit totals on tilts involving Milwaukee earlier this season.
In the first 15 games of 2004, the Brew Crew didn’t see a total lower than nine. Over their past 13 games, however, nine is the highest total they’ve seen. During that stretch, books have set the total at eight on six occasions, dipping five times to a total of seven, and it's even dropped to as low as 6 1/2 when Sheets and Chicago Cubs ace Greg Maddux squared off on July 27.
The books’ adjustments have slowly begun to buck the trends. Since July 26, Milwaukee has played over the total in seven of 13 contests. They also went on a five-game over streak last week.
Over the next nine games, the Brewers will face the Atlanta Braves, the Marlins and the Cubs in three-game sets respectively. Milwaukee hit the under in 13 of the combined 17 games against these three clubs - but keep in mind the totals have been dropping
