MLB Tue, Aug 10, 2004
Philadelphia vs. the NL West
Andrew Folkes
At 19-7, the Philadelphia Phillies have the best record against the National League West for teams outside that division. Although their team ranks 19th on the money list at -3.6 units, Phils backers have bagged nearly 13 units against the West.
Following Monday night’s 4-2 loss to the Colorado Rockies, the Phillies have six games remaining on their schedule against NL West teams. Before you try to milk this trend, you'd better take a look at where most of those units came from.
As the sharp bettor knows, betting blindly on trends can be quite detrimental to one’s bankroll, and the Phillies’ record against the NL West is a textbook example.
In early May, the Phillies swept the Arizona Diamondbacks in a three-game series. Perhaps it was because Arizona had taken two of three from the Chicago Cubs in its previous series, or because the Cubs had won six of their last 10, but the D-Backs were clearly overvalued.
The Phillies were dogs in all three contests, including a +160 listing in the series opener on May 7. Philadelphia backers came out of this series up a handsome 3.85 units.
Later in May, Philadelphia swept another series, this time against the L.A. Dodgers. The Phillies were listed as slight -115 favorites in the opener on May 18, but the books increased the chalk in the second and third games of the set to -155 and -130 respectively.
The Phillies earned another three units against the Dodgers, but were lucky to have faced L.A. in the midst of an eight-game losing streak.
Earlier this month, the Phillies took on the San Diego Padres, again in a three-game series. Philadelphia won the first two games as slight dogs, then earned another payday in the final game as -115 favorites. That sweep came in the midst of a 2-7 slump that the Padres remained entrenched in.
Having deconstructed the Phillies’ performance against the NL West, it becomes clear that their supporters owe the bulk of the fortune they’ve earned against the division to the some bad judgment by the books and a whole lotta luck. In short, what we have here is not so much a trend, but merely a statistical anomaly.
The Phillies will play Game 2 of a four-game series tonight at home against Colorado. Despite the fact that they’re 16 games off the pace in their division, the Rockies are the only NL West team that Philadelphia has dropped money to this season.
Phillies backers came out of a four-game series with the Rockies in mid-May down $115, and if dropping yesterday’s game as a -167 favorite is any indication of the rest of the series, their supporters stand to eat a good deal of chalk.
More promising are the three tilts Philadelphia will play against the San Francisco Giants starting Friday, which will end the club’s 2004 campaign against the NL West. The Phillies took two of three against the Giants back in May to earn a single unit. Not exactly a huge payday, but with San Francisco at seven games over .500, Phillies backers will be facing a lot less of the white stuff.
Oddsmakers have the Phillies as -160 favorites in tonight’s tilt versus Colorado. The total is set at 10.
Philadelphia vs. the NL West
Andrew Folkes
At 19-7, the Philadelphia Phillies have the best record against the National League West for teams outside that division. Although their team ranks 19th on the money list at -3.6 units, Phils backers have bagged nearly 13 units against the West.
Following Monday night’s 4-2 loss to the Colorado Rockies, the Phillies have six games remaining on their schedule against NL West teams. Before you try to milk this trend, you'd better take a look at where most of those units came from.
As the sharp bettor knows, betting blindly on trends can be quite detrimental to one’s bankroll, and the Phillies’ record against the NL West is a textbook example.
In early May, the Phillies swept the Arizona Diamondbacks in a three-game series. Perhaps it was because Arizona had taken two of three from the Chicago Cubs in its previous series, or because the Cubs had won six of their last 10, but the D-Backs were clearly overvalued.
The Phillies were dogs in all three contests, including a +160 listing in the series opener on May 7. Philadelphia backers came out of this series up a handsome 3.85 units.
Later in May, Philadelphia swept another series, this time against the L.A. Dodgers. The Phillies were listed as slight -115 favorites in the opener on May 18, but the books increased the chalk in the second and third games of the set to -155 and -130 respectively.
The Phillies earned another three units against the Dodgers, but were lucky to have faced L.A. in the midst of an eight-game losing streak.
Earlier this month, the Phillies took on the San Diego Padres, again in a three-game series. Philadelphia won the first two games as slight dogs, then earned another payday in the final game as -115 favorites. That sweep came in the midst of a 2-7 slump that the Padres remained entrenched in.
Having deconstructed the Phillies’ performance against the NL West, it becomes clear that their supporters owe the bulk of the fortune they’ve earned against the division to the some bad judgment by the books and a whole lotta luck. In short, what we have here is not so much a trend, but merely a statistical anomaly.
The Phillies will play Game 2 of a four-game series tonight at home against Colorado. Despite the fact that they’re 16 games off the pace in their division, the Rockies are the only NL West team that Philadelphia has dropped money to this season.
Phillies backers came out of a four-game series with the Rockies in mid-May down $115, and if dropping yesterday’s game as a -167 favorite is any indication of the rest of the series, their supporters stand to eat a good deal of chalk.
More promising are the three tilts Philadelphia will play against the San Francisco Giants starting Friday, which will end the club’s 2004 campaign against the NL West. The Phillies took two of three against the Giants back in May to earn a single unit. Not exactly a huge payday, but with San Francisco at seven games over .500, Phillies backers will be facing a lot less of the white stuff.
Oddsmakers have the Phillies as -160 favorites in tonight’s tilt versus Colorado. The total is set at 10.
