Tuesday MLB Overnight...

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posted August 10, 2004 12:25 AM
Reds +1.08, listed. Since Harang came off the dl he had one bad start, on the road, and 6 quality starts, 2 er or less. Four of those outings 1 er or less. He did face LA earlier in year, in LA, won 6-3. 2 er. His last start a gem in SF 4 hits 1 run in 7 innings. He also has little problem with the Dodgers lineup. He held them to .237 av .256 ob with a 7-1 k to bb ratio. The Reds had their bad run, odds got adjusted accordingly. But now the Reds seem to be alive again. Tough facing Cardinals, Cubs and Giants. Still managed to win 3 out of last 5. Now back home. Dodgers look good beating Zona and Stros, big deal. Philly got them two out of 3, in LA. Lima takes the hill for Dodgers. Pretty good home effort his last time out, 6 hit 1 run Pit. But two road starts before that mediocre. 10 hits 3 runs vs. DBax and 9 hits 4 runs vs. Col. Reds seem to hit Lima real well. Batting .361, .400 ob% and a sweet .759 slugging %. Also of note, Lima carrying 3.39 era at home, 5.21 on road. Amazing 41k to 12bb ratio at home, but 17k to 14bb on road. Maybe the mound is higher at LA? Either way, he is not impressive on road, or vs. Reds. I think he is on his last legs, and relies too much on wide zone for change. When Reds watch change go by, they force Lima to throw weak heat, straight and high 80's. I think he gets hit here, and Reds win won for home fans as a dog...This will be an A play...Best Wishes...OF

Somebody moved this to bases forum, hope nobody missed it because of that.
 

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Frogman, how come you always seem to play games that are close to pickem?
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I do not lay more than 1.59. Big dogs can be low% plays, at times. But honestly Pancho, it is just how the price falls. Mostly I look for dogs that I think should be favored. Or I have a price in mind, and the line is off. I got +1.15, +1.10, +1.08 and +1.05. Then I stopped. Overnights are really small at most shops, nick limits. But lines are all over before they become painted. The other key, it is my own stuff, do not have to follow when you lead. I would say most of my mlb plays are small dogs. Best Wishes...OF
 

Pour your misery down on me
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Thanks for sharing your play.I`m going to ride cinn. with you .I got it at +100.
GOOD LUCK!!!
 

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