One for tonight

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OK I've been racking my brains today and there doesn't seem to be a lot of umpire info to put this one over the top but I still like it. Here we go:

Last night 1-0 +$100
Week: 4-3 +$150

Milwaukee at Atlanta UNDER 8.5 -115
Davis vs Thomson

OK so we have a couple of pitchers that really aren't in the limelight but the numbers support a 2-0/3-1 type of game. The Brewers are average against righties (or anyone really) this year and the Braves are minus money against lefties so don't expect a lot of offensive success from either lineup. Brewers are also 3-11 O/U off a day of rest and 5-13 O/U vs teams above .500 post-break (17-38 O/U vs +.500 teams all year). Braves are 1-10 O/U off a day off and 3-11 O/U when playing on Tuesdays this season. They're also 5-14 O/U vs sub .500 teams in the 2nd half so the under numbers really bode well.

Thomson has good numbers against the Brewers in his short career (3.00 ERA/1.238 WHIP) and is 2-0 in his last 3 starts with an ERA of 2.25 and a WHIP of 1.150 (averaging 6 2/3 innings a start). Davis hasn't faced the Braves so he may have an edge early in the game and the Brewers bullpen has been solid of late (near the top in not allowing walks).

I would REALLY like to have the home plate ump tonight because if it's a wash or an under trend umpire this would be an even stronger play but I will just hit it normally and hope for a nice quick 9 innings.
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Good luck tonight group...let's make some money.

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sb
 

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