Yesterday 2-2 +1.20 units
Y-T-D (on this site) 32-46 (-5.29 units)
Tampa Bay +1.60 over BOSTON
Not in the least bit interested in Derek Lowe laying anything, let alone 1.70. Guys named Hudson, Ortiz, or Zambrano warrant a tag like this, not Derek Lowe. Lowe has an ERA of 5.50 and has been tagged for 156 hits in 124 innings. He’s already a 10 game loser on the year and has been knocked around on more occasions then not this year. Lowe is a one pitch pitcher and if his sinker-ball isn’t sinking it’s batting practice for the opposition. Dewon Brazelton’s confidence level is soaring right now. This guy has been absolutely brilliant all year and he keeps getting better. He’s made just 11 starts and hasn’t allowed more then four runs in any of them and that’s happened just twice. Over his last five starts he hasn’t allowed more then two earned runs. In his last 10 starts, covering 60.2 innings, the opposition has gone yard on him just three times. Brazelton has a 2.56 ERA and over his last five starts his ERA is 1.41. He’s also pitching much deeper into games then he was earlier in the year. Tremendous value here on one very live pup. Play Tampa Bay +1.60 (Risking 1.6 units).
Milwaukee +1.65 over ATLANTA
I know the Braves are very warm and normally I don’t like going against hot teams. However, they have cooled off somewhat and I just kept looking at this price, looking, looking, looking and couldn’t lay off. Tag here is much too sweet to pass up on and I don’t have that much faith in Mike Hampton. He is currently on a good run having not lost in his past six starts, however, he was hit hard by the weak hitting Astros in his last start in which he allowed five earned runs and issued six walks in 4.1 frames. That’s the Mike Hampton we’re more accustomed to seeing. His ERA is 4.91 on the year and he’s 4-5 at Turner Field with a 4.48 ERA. Victor Santos will toe the rubber for the Brewers. He was having a great year for awhile, however, he has been hit rather hard his past three starts. No big deal, it happens. Thing is, Santos has a 4.03 ERA on the year, however, put him on the road and he has compiled a 7-1 record with a 2.50 ERA. We’ll gladly take our chances here against Mike Hampton, who, like Derek Lowe, should never be in this range. Big overlay. Play Milwaukee +1.65 (Risking 1.6 units).
Colorado +1.50 over PHILADELPHIA
See no reason to jump off this train now after cashing in on them in the first two games of this set. The Phillies are reeling and we can see Mount Bowa ready to explode any moment now. Philadelphia’s bullpen is really struggling and that bodes well here as Randy Wolf is averaging just over five innings per start. Wolf hasn’t looked very pretty either. In 19 starts, dude has just four wins. At home he has just two wins and a 4.55 ERA. He appears to be fighting it every time he steps on the bump. Uncharacteristically, the Rockies have reeled off five in a row on the road and have now won 11 of their past 14 away games. They’re 20-11 against southpaws and will face one here. Jason Jennings has won 10 and lost nine. He’s 2-0 in his past three starts, covering 22 innings, with a 2.45 ERA. Not a thing to like here about laying 1.60 and everything to like about taking back this tag. Get in line. Play Colorado +1.50 (Risking 1.6 units).
Baltimore +1.45 over ANAHEIM
The Orioles bats are sizzling right now and it’s not just one or two guys torching the rock, it’s everyone. Six of the nine regulars are now batting over .300 and that doesn’t include leadoff man Brian Roberts, who just might be the hottest of the bunch. Baltimore has reeled off eight in a row and over the past two weeks five of the hitters are batting over .400. This team is completely on fire and taking back a tag like this on them right now has got to be considered good strategy. Kelvim Escobar is laboring big time and in fact, he’s lost six of his last seven with his only win during that stretch coming against the Royals. Escobar has six wins on the year in 22 starts and this is the last team in the majors you want to face right now when you’re trying to get right-sided. Erik Bedard looked real sharp in his last outing against the Rangers and we’ll gladly stick with this red-hot intruder in a game they can surely win. Big overlay. Play Baltimore +1.45 (Risking 1.6 units).
Y-T-D (on this site) 32-46 (-5.29 units)
Tampa Bay +1.60 over BOSTON
Not in the least bit interested in Derek Lowe laying anything, let alone 1.70. Guys named Hudson, Ortiz, or Zambrano warrant a tag like this, not Derek Lowe. Lowe has an ERA of 5.50 and has been tagged for 156 hits in 124 innings. He’s already a 10 game loser on the year and has been knocked around on more occasions then not this year. Lowe is a one pitch pitcher and if his sinker-ball isn’t sinking it’s batting practice for the opposition. Dewon Brazelton’s confidence level is soaring right now. This guy has been absolutely brilliant all year and he keeps getting better. He’s made just 11 starts and hasn’t allowed more then four runs in any of them and that’s happened just twice. Over his last five starts he hasn’t allowed more then two earned runs. In his last 10 starts, covering 60.2 innings, the opposition has gone yard on him just three times. Brazelton has a 2.56 ERA and over his last five starts his ERA is 1.41. He’s also pitching much deeper into games then he was earlier in the year. Tremendous value here on one very live pup. Play Tampa Bay +1.60 (Risking 1.6 units).
Milwaukee +1.65 over ATLANTA
I know the Braves are very warm and normally I don’t like going against hot teams. However, they have cooled off somewhat and I just kept looking at this price, looking, looking, looking and couldn’t lay off. Tag here is much too sweet to pass up on and I don’t have that much faith in Mike Hampton. He is currently on a good run having not lost in his past six starts, however, he was hit hard by the weak hitting Astros in his last start in which he allowed five earned runs and issued six walks in 4.1 frames. That’s the Mike Hampton we’re more accustomed to seeing. His ERA is 4.91 on the year and he’s 4-5 at Turner Field with a 4.48 ERA. Victor Santos will toe the rubber for the Brewers. He was having a great year for awhile, however, he has been hit rather hard his past three starts. No big deal, it happens. Thing is, Santos has a 4.03 ERA on the year, however, put him on the road and he has compiled a 7-1 record with a 2.50 ERA. We’ll gladly take our chances here against Mike Hampton, who, like Derek Lowe, should never be in this range. Big overlay. Play Milwaukee +1.65 (Risking 1.6 units).
Colorado +1.50 over PHILADELPHIA
See no reason to jump off this train now after cashing in on them in the first two games of this set. The Phillies are reeling and we can see Mount Bowa ready to explode any moment now. Philadelphia’s bullpen is really struggling and that bodes well here as Randy Wolf is averaging just over five innings per start. Wolf hasn’t looked very pretty either. In 19 starts, dude has just four wins. At home he has just two wins and a 4.55 ERA. He appears to be fighting it every time he steps on the bump. Uncharacteristically, the Rockies have reeled off five in a row on the road and have now won 11 of their past 14 away games. They’re 20-11 against southpaws and will face one here. Jason Jennings has won 10 and lost nine. He’s 2-0 in his past three starts, covering 22 innings, with a 2.45 ERA. Not a thing to like here about laying 1.60 and everything to like about taking back this tag. Get in line. Play Colorado +1.50 (Risking 1.6 units).
Baltimore +1.45 over ANAHEIM
The Orioles bats are sizzling right now and it’s not just one or two guys torching the rock, it’s everyone. Six of the nine regulars are now batting over .300 and that doesn’t include leadoff man Brian Roberts, who just might be the hottest of the bunch. Baltimore has reeled off eight in a row and over the past two weeks five of the hitters are batting over .400. This team is completely on fire and taking back a tag like this on them right now has got to be considered good strategy. Kelvim Escobar is laboring big time and in fact, he’s lost six of his last seven with his only win during that stretch coming against the Royals. Escobar has six wins on the year in 22 starts and this is the last team in the majors you want to face right now when you’re trying to get right-sided. Erik Bedard looked real sharp in his last outing against the Rangers and we’ll gladly stick with this red-hot intruder in a game they can surely win. Big overlay. Play Baltimore +1.45 (Risking 1.6 units).
