Atl -170 over Milw (gameday) (3 units) - I rarely lay this much chalk, but this one is too delicious to pass up. This is a matchup of 2 teams going in opposite directions in a hurry. Whats more, Milwaukee's win last night made this an even better play. The Brewers have struggled mightily this year following a win, going 20-31 following a victory. The Braves, on the contrary, have been baseball's best team avenging a loss for the 2nd straight season, winning 66% of their games following a defeat. The starters are pretty equal here, but the difference is the bullpen, where the Braves have the majors best. The Brewers pen is not bad but they were used extensively last night going 6 innings. Don't look for much help from Vos Santos who has only thrown more than 100 pitches 5 times all year. The clincher here is home plate ump Tim Welke. Welke is the number one "homer" according to my rankings of umpires for the last 8 years. Home teams have gone 153-104 in games with Welke calling balls and strikes and $100 players have raked in $2715 in that time just by blindly playing the home team. This game is a play without Welke. With him, its a must play.
Milw individual team total u4 -125 (oly) (2 units) - This is a play because of all that I wrote above, and for a couple more reasons. For one, the ballpark factor is a minus 0.25 runs/game. But more importantly, Welke in addition to being a homer, is also a huge under umpire. Not once in the last 8 years has Welke's over/under record been over .500. His record for that time: 106-138. Only Oly's 40 cent vig on team totals is keeping me from making this a 3 unit play.
LA -126 over Cincy (pinny) (3 units) - The trade of Jeff Weaver for Kevin Brown before the season looked like another Yankee steal. However, this one may be one the Yankees regret. Weaver has been nothing but the model of consistency this year. Jeff has logged 16 quality starts (6 innings or more, 3 runs or less) in his last 19 games. Its hard to ask much more from your starter than that. Branden Claussen, another ex-Yank, may someday be a decent pitcher, but he isn't one yet. Big advantage to the Dodgers here. If that doesn't convince you, then take a look at the bullpens. The Dodgers have one of the majors best and the Reds have one of the worst. As if that isn't enough the Dodgers team defense is vastly superior also. LA's 49 errors are the fewest in the majors by far, whereas the Reds error to double play ratio (77/88) is the 2nd worst in all of baseball after the dreadful Mets. Once again, though, the real clincher is the home plate umpire. Eric Cooper is my number 1 rated "anti-homer" in all of baseball. His 103-118 record for home teams since 1997 is telling, but his record in the last 2 years is unreal. Home teams have gone only 20-42 with Cooper behind the plate the last 2 seasons and $100 players have won an astounding $3545 just by playing the road team. The only thing keeping me from going 4 units is the chalk. I rarely play favorites more than 3 units, and I'll stick with that policy for this one, too.
Milw individual team total u4 -125 (oly) (2 units) - This is a play because of all that I wrote above, and for a couple more reasons. For one, the ballpark factor is a minus 0.25 runs/game. But more importantly, Welke in addition to being a homer, is also a huge under umpire. Not once in the last 8 years has Welke's over/under record been over .500. His record for that time: 106-138. Only Oly's 40 cent vig on team totals is keeping me from making this a 3 unit play.
LA -126 over Cincy (pinny) (3 units) - The trade of Jeff Weaver for Kevin Brown before the season looked like another Yankee steal. However, this one may be one the Yankees regret. Weaver has been nothing but the model of consistency this year. Jeff has logged 16 quality starts (6 innings or more, 3 runs or less) in his last 19 games. Its hard to ask much more from your starter than that. Branden Claussen, another ex-Yank, may someday be a decent pitcher, but he isn't one yet. Big advantage to the Dodgers here. If that doesn't convince you, then take a look at the bullpens. The Dodgers have one of the majors best and the Reds have one of the worst. As if that isn't enough the Dodgers team defense is vastly superior also. LA's 49 errors are the fewest in the majors by far, whereas the Reds error to double play ratio (77/88) is the 2nd worst in all of baseball after the dreadful Mets. Once again, though, the real clincher is the home plate umpire. Eric Cooper is my number 1 rated "anti-homer" in all of baseball. His 103-118 record for home teams since 1997 is telling, but his record in the last 2 years is unreal. Home teams have gone only 20-42 with Cooper behind the plate the last 2 seasons and $100 players have won an astounding $3545 just by playing the road team. The only thing keeping me from going 4 units is the chalk. I rarely play favorites more than 3 units, and I'll stick with that policy for this one, too.
