i know that it takes a lot of trials before a "trend" or angel, or general handicapping approach can be confirmed valid, but i have been researching my records today. starting july 14 up through yesterday i have found a "trend" in my records that shows a 28-12 record. i use a spreadsheet to genereate a line and compare that to the posted line, to use as a starting point on my capping, however after going back through and looking at my past records since july 14, this situation shows a winning record, which i know is a really high percentage, but when would you guys consider playing it. should i wait out the rest of the season to see if it contiues, or jump on board now. i also have found another situation that has only occured 15 times since july 14th and it has gone 12-3. all favs under -150. i also have another one that i found that has gone 28-23, all underdogs in the same timeframe. what do you guys think.
well, they arent really trends. i was trying to explain to people at covers. i use a spreadsheet that i have to admit is very complicated and detailed regarding recent stats, along with pitchers, how many innings a pitcher is expected to last, and bullpen, their era, and how many innings they are expected to pitch. based off of all of this i get determine what the moneyline should be for a game, then compare it to what the books have. this is the start of my capping, to give me a direction as to where to look for value. but i went backed and did some research, only back through july, cause that is when i started doing the spreadsheets daily, and i set up some criteia. off all the games where my line was 25 cents or more higher than the books, but the books line was under -160, those games hit 28-12. my other criteria that i searched was when my line shows a team A should be favored, but the book has team A as a dog, those games went 28-23, keep in mind all doggies though. for 13.98 units from july 14th through 8-10-04. the first one has made 8.4 units since the sametime
